Manuel Rodriguez

P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.5 · 2032

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ACarolina Mudc…	18	18	95	3.23	3.30	20.6%	2.7%	—	K 15.3% · BB 3.2% · FIP 4.12
2025	19	MIX2 levels	19	19	90	3.01	3.52	25.0%	4.3%	—	K 19.7% · BB 5.3% · FIP 4.12
2026	20	AAMIL	27	26	133	4.74	5.10	20.9%	5.6%	—	K 16.9% · BB 6.2% · FIP 6.16
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIL	15	15	82	5.14	5.14	16.9%	5.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ50% MLB	22	MLBMIL	12	12	63	5.06	4.99	18.5%	4.9%	0.0
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIL	18	18	96	4.89	4.81	19.5%	4.8%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$3M2034Arb-2$4M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control60Command55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 20, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 77%

CompsMatt Eckelman (age 22) · Garrett Stallings (age 23) · Seth Shuman (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%16.9%

BB%5.0%

K-BB%11.9%

Proj IP82

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	12	5	36	153	24	9	3	42%	3.0	10.7%	7.4%	3.3%	2.5%	4.54	4.48	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	12	5	36	153	24	9	3	42%	3.0	15.7%	5.9%	9.8%	2.0%	4.54	3.60	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	10	5	41	175	34	10	8	50%	4.1	13.2%	7.1%	6.1%	7.1%	4.35	6.80	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	10	5	41	175	34	10	8	50%	4.1	19.4%	5.7%	13.7%	4.6%	4.35	4.70	—
2024	18	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	95	373	77	10	11	100%	5.3	15.3%	3.2%	12.1%	3.5%	3.23	4.12	—
2024	18	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	95	373	77	10	11	100%	5.3	15.3%	3.2%	12.1%	3.5%	3.23	4.12	—
2024	18	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	95	373	77	10	11	100%	5.3	20.6%	2.7%	18.0%	2.9%	3.23	3.30	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	90	352	88	15	13	100%	4.7	19.7%	5.3%	14.5%	3.7%	3.01	4.12	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	90	352	88	15	13	100%	4.7	19.7%	5.3%	14.5%	3.7%	3.01	4.12	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	90	352	88	15	13	100%	4.7	25.0%	4.3%	20.7%	3.7%	3.01	3.52	—
2026	20	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	27	26	133	551	115	31	31	96%	4.9	16.9%	6.2%	10.7%	6.8%	4.74	6.16	—
2026	20	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	27	26	133	551	115	31	31	96%	4.9	16.9%	6.2%	10.7%	6.8%	4.74	6.16	—
2026	20	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	27	26	133	551	115	31	31	96%	4.9	20.9%	5.6%	15.2%	5.6%	4.74	5.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIL	15	15	82	346	58	17	15	100%	5.5	16.9%	5.0%	11.9%	4.5%	5.14	5.14	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	126	531	98	26	23	100%	5.2	18.5%	4.9%	13.7%	4.3%	4.94	4.87	+0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	130	551	107	26	23	100%	5.4	19.5%	4.8%	14.8%	4.1%	4.78	4.70	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	134	565	114	27	23	100%	5.6	20.2%	4.7%	15.5%	4.0%	4.65	4.58	+0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	135	572	118	27	23	100%	5.9	20.6%	4.6%	16.0%	4.0%	4.57	4.52	+0.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	135	572	119	26	23	100%	5.9	20.8%	4.6%	16.2%	4.0%	4.53	4.50	+0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	133	563	117	26	23	100%	6.1	20.8%	4.7%	16.1%	4.0%	4.53	4.54	+0.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	129	546	113	26	23	100%	5.9	20.7%	4.8%	15.8%	4.1%	4.58	4.62	+0.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	124	522	107	26	22	100%	5.9	20.4%	5.1%	15.4%	4.3%	4.68	4.75	+0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	116	491	99	26	22	100%	6.1	20.1%	5.3%	14.7%	4.5%	4.83	4.93	-0.0
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	108	458	90	26	22	100%	6.0	19.7%	5.7%	14.0%	4.7%	5.01	5.13	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	63	266	49	13	12	100%	5.2	18.5%	4.9%	13.7%	4.5%	5.06	4.99	+0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	96	405	79	19	18	100%	5.3	19.5%	4.8%	14.8%	4.3%	4.89	4.81	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	111	469	95	22	20	100%	5.5	20.2%	4.7%	15.5%	4.2%	4.76	4.69	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	120	507	104	24	21	100%	5.7	20.6%	4.6%	16.0%	4.2%	4.68	4.63	+0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	124	524	109	24	22	100%	5.9	20.8%	4.6%	16.2%	4.2%	4.64	4.61	+0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	124	524	109	24	22	100%	5.9	20.8%	4.7%	16.1%	4.2%	4.64	4.65	+0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	121	511	106	25	22	100%	6.0	20.7%	4.8%	15.8%	4.4%	4.69	4.73	+0.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	117	494	101	25	22	100%	5.8	20.4%	5.1%	15.4%	4.5%	4.80	4.87	+0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	110	464	93	25	22	100%	6.1	20.1%	5.3%	14.7%	4.7%	4.95	5.05	-0.0
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	103	435	86	25	22	100%	6.1	19.7%	5.7%	14.0%	5.0%	5.14	5.26	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		187	187	1089	4598	931	226	203	100%	5.8	20.2%	4.9%	15.3%	4.4%	4.81	4.43	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	171	42	37	100%	5.8	20.2%	4.9%	15.3%	4.4%	4.81	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		86	73	394	1604	259	88	79	85%	4.6	16.1%	5.5%	10.6%	4.9%	3.93	5.15	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	37	200	814	131	45	40	85%	4.6	16.1%	5.5%	10.6%	4.9%	3.93	5.15	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	16.9%	5.0%	4.5%	—	4.71	19.4%	14.7%	390	-0.43	—	—	—
Matt Eckelman R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.44	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.14	4.07	386	88
Garrett Stallings R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	17.1%	5.2%	4.9%	.305	4.83	19.0%	11.4%	326	-0.16	3.19	627	86
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.16	357	84
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	84
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	315	84
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.49	15.0%	7.2%	236	+1.29	3.05	420	82
Tanner Gordon R 2021 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	18.5%	5.5%	3.8%	.290	4.67	18.5%	11.9%	349	+0.32	4.10	715	82
Kevin Slowey R 2007 · 5.19 FIP	23	SP	5.19	15.8%	3.7%	5.4%	.296	3.89	18.3%	14.5%	407	-1.30	3.53	662	82
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	82
J.D. Busfield R 2017 · 4.62 FIP	22	SP	4.62	12.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.293	4.82	11.5%	6.4%	68	+0.20	4.62	177	81
Brandon McCarthy R 2005 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	17.3%	6.1%	4.7%	.246	4.70	15.4%	6.6%	208	-0.29	3.00	1,238	81
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	81
Rafael Soriano R 2002 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP-	4.88	15.8%	7.4%	4.0%	.252	1.48	33.8%	28.3%	53	-3.40	1.48	620	80
Adam Oller R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP-	4.86	13.3%	4.8%	4.2%	.322	4.53	17.4%	9.0%	160	-0.33	3.47	670	80
Nick Gardewine R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	21	SP-	4.24	14.4%	6.3%	2.8%	.334	3.18	24.5%	16.4%	104	-1.06	2.62	200	80
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	362	-0.39	3.82	579	80
Ryan Lillie R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	16.9%	5.1%	3.3%	.272	4.83	15.3%	6.7%	146	+0.70	3.00	310	80
Kirk Saarloos R 2002 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	14.5%	5.9%	3.2%	.310	4.14	10.4%	3.4%	233	-0.25	3.25	509	80
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	80
Will Ethridge R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	16.8%	5.8%	3.1%	.274	5.54	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.40	3.57	227	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.8	123	20.0%	4.9%	1.63	4.73
George Stone ('67-'75, 5 WAR*)	5.1	128	17.8%*	6.0%*	1.58*	4.42*
Tommy Milone ('23)	4.8	95	17.4%	5.7%	1.53	4.58
Scott Sanderson ('78-'96, 30 WAR*)	12.8	151	20.3%*	5.7%*	1.52*	4.18*
Jim Merritt ('65-'75, 16 WAR*)	7.4	165	19.3%*	5.1%*	1.41*	4.32*
Jerad Eickhoff ('22)	2.3	116	20.7%	6.9%	1.57	4.50
Eric Milton ('09)	7.9	158	16.5%	6.6%	1.52	4.99