Jake Ogden — OGILVIE

Jake OgdenSS St. Lucie Mets

Age 23 R/R A H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 71 proj PA

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .299 / .321

PA71

HR1

K%25

BB%8

ISO100

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	22	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	52	41	11	1	0	1	7	7	3	4	1	268	412	366	778	98	294	13	13	358	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	52	43	11	1	0	1	5	10	3	4	1	256	373	349	721	93	267	19	10	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	52	43	11	1	0	1	5	10	3	4	1	256	373	349	721	93	303	19	10	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	—	52	41	11	1	0	1	7	7	3	4	1	268	412	366	778	98	294	13	13	358	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	52	44	11	1	0	1	5	10	3	4	1	250	373	341	713	91	267	19	10	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	52	44	11	1	0	1	5	10	3	4	1	250	373	341	713	91	267	19	10	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	0%	162	145	32	4	1	3	12	41	4	4	1	224	301	324	625	100	290	25	7	285	79	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	30%	162	146	33	5	1	3	12	41	3	4	1	226	303	331	634	104	291	25	7	288	81	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	44%	263	236	54	8	1	5	20	66	5	7	1	228	304	336	640	108	291	25	8	291	83	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	51%	333	297	69	10	2	7	26	83	7	8	1	229	305	340	645	111	291	25	8	292	84	-6	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	52%	370	331	75	11	2	7	29	92	7	9	1	228	305	341	645	112	291	25	8	293	84	-7	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	53%	392	351	80	12	2	8	31	98	7	8	1	228	304	340	643	112	290	25	8	292	83	-8	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYM	53%	398	357	81	12	2	8	31	101	7	7	1	225	301	334	635	108	289	25	8	288	81	-9	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYM	52%	400	359	80	12	2	7	31	102	7	5	1	222	298	326	624	104	287	26	8	284	78	-10	+1	-2	+4	+9	0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYM	52%	392	352	77	11	2	7	30	102	7	2	1	219	293	317	610	98	285	26	8	278	74	-12	+0	-3	+4	+8	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	30%	49	44	9	1	0	1	4	12	1	1	0	220	297	322	619	102	282	24	8	282	81	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	44%	116	104	23	3	1	2	9	29	2	3	0	221	298	327	625	106	283	25	8	285	83	-2	+1	+0	+1	+3	0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	51%	169	151	34	5	1	3	13	42	3	4	1	222	299	331	630	109	282	25	8	286	84	-3	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	52%	194	173	39	6	1	4	15	48	4	5	1	222	299	332	631	110	282	25	8	287	84	-4	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	53%	209	187	41	6	1	4	16	52	4	4	1	221	298	331	629	109	281	25	8	286	83	-4	+0	-0	+2	+5	0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYM	53%	209	187	41	6	1	4	16	53	4	3	1	219	295	325	620	106	280	25	8	282	81	-5	+0	-1	+2	+5	0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYM	52%	208	186	41	6	1	4	16	53	4	3	0	216	292	318	610	101	279	25	8	278	78	-5	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYM	52%	203	181	39	6	1	3	16	53	4	1	0	212	287	308	596	96	276	26	8	272	74	-6	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1357	1213	267	39	7	25	105	342	26	24	4	220	296	326	622	106	284	25	8	282	81	-31	+3	-4	+15	+29	1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	128	19	3	12	50	164	12	11	2	220	295	325	620	105	284	25	8	282	81	-15	+2	-2	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2833	2536	574	84	14	54	220	713	55	56	9	226	302	334	636	108	291	25	8	288	81	-63	+7	-7	+30	+60	2.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	131	19	3	12	50	164	13	13	2	225	301	330	631	105	291	25	8	288	81	-15	+2	-2	+7	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jack Hannahanlast yr '14 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,867 PA	2.8	1,867	29	6	232	315	348	+6	+29	6.2	6.2
/162	664	10	2	+2.0	+10.4	2.2	pk7: 6
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.2	1,428	27	26	226	299	334	+15	+15	2.5	2.4
/162	664	13	12	+7.1	+7.0	1.2	pk7: 2
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Ogden (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	222/299/321	99	290	1	2	25%	8%	79	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	44	42→45	55	47	215/295/325	110	284	9	14	26%	8%	78	-0.3	222/280/325	103	297	9	9	27%	6%	72	-0.7	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Corey Toups 2016 · A	23	49→50	41→45	56→50	46	234/295/343	109	305	7	17	25%	7%	81	-0.1	217/279/332	115	309	9	16	31%	7%	73	-0.6	206/271/319	113	301	10	16	33%	7%	64	-0.9
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	45	47→55	58→50	45	221/289/359	138	303	14	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	213/278/339	126	273	14	11	26%	8%	74	-0.5	223/286/391	168	267	21	13	25%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	44	222/290/341	119	280	12	16	24%	7%	80	-0.2	214/272/298	84	283	6	12	25%	6%	62	-1.4	205/259/264	60	274	3	10	25%	6%	47	-0.7
✕Alex Isola 2021 · A	23	46→44	45→50	49→40	44	228/280/350	122	288	12	8	25%	6%	77	-0.3	216/283/360	144	273	19	4	27%	8%	82	-0.0	212/283/353	141	263	19	2	26%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Taylor Featherston 2013 · A	23	47→46	44→50	51→50	44	226/291/350	124	304	11	11	28%	7%	82	-0.0	221/268/359	138	289	14	12	28%	5%	75	-0.5	213/256/352	139	273	14	12	27%	4%	67	-0.8
✕Zack Short 2018 · A	23	42→39	45→50	48→45	53	209/300/336	128	267	12	11	25%	10%	82	+0.0	201/292/339	138	285	13	8	31%	10%	80	-0.1	178/280/321	143	246	16	6	32%	11%	70	-0.6
✕Mario Lisson 2007 · A	23	45→49	44→50	55	47	220/297/341	122	293	11	22	27%	8%	82	+0.0	215/267/326	111	279	11	19	26%	5%	67	-1.1	222/292/345	123	288	15	8	27%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→47	47→45	48→50	48	209/292/350	141	261	14	9	25%	8%	83	+0.1	206/282/335	129	268	13	9	27%	7%	76	-0.4	222/297/349	127	274	11	8	22%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Graysen Tarlow 2024 · A	23	45	43→30	49→40	50	217/307/331	113	283	10	8	25%	9%	84	+0.1	211/291/285	74	299	6	6	29%	8%	68	-1.0	224/307/292	68	313	6	7	28%	8%	76	-0.1
✕Jason Taylor 2010 · A	22	45→40	45→50	52→55	50	222/296/347	125	272	12	21	23%	9%	83	+0.1	209/261/319	110	272	10	13	26%	6%	63	-1.4	145/173/232	87	187	9	6	28%	3%	9	-1.1
✕Sean Jamieson 2013 · A	24	41→44	43→45	53→50	47	201/277/314	113	254	10	15	24%	8%	69	-0.9	225/285/338	113	297	9	10	26%	6%	77	-0.3	233/292/342	109	311	9	9	26%	6%	77	-0.3
✕Taylor Motter 2013 · A	23	45→49	40→50	51→55	51	216/291/311	95	272	7	20	23%	9%	73	-0.6	236/290/354	118	282	11	20	20%	7%	82	-0.0	245/294/375	130	284	13	21	18%	6%	86	+0.2
✕Luis Santana 2023 · A	24	44	46→45	48→50	42	221/284/348	127	282	13	11	26%	6%	79	-0.2	210/265/327	117	265	13	7	25%	5%	67	-1.1	194/247/303	110	239	13	5	25%	5%	52	-1.2
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2010 · A	23	49→50	42→45	55→60	49	236/311/356	119	289	8	19	20%	8%	91	+0.6	229/288/337	108	289	6	27	22%	6%	77	-0.3	225/286/341	117	286	11	26	24%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Cam Devanney 2021 · A	24	47→42	40→50	52→45	48	226/290/320	94	268	7	15	18%	7%	74	-0.5	199/263/320	121	268	13	5	29%	7%	65	-1.2	216/280/368	152	278	16	7	27%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Lolo Sanchez 2022 · A	23	44→45	45	53→55	48	220/295/343	124	262	13	23	21%	8%	82	+0.0	208/283/298	90	252	9	13	20%	8%	68	-1.0	193/271/258	65	233	6	9	19%	8%	51	-0.9
✕Jared Serna 2024 · A	22	45→48	45	53→50	45	226/284/352	126	276	13	18	23%	7%	79	-0.2	214/271/321	107	261	11	15	22%	6%	68	-1.0	202/265/300	97	245	10	16	21%	6%	58	-1.4
✕Jake Rogers 2018 · A	23	41→40	44→60	47→45	42	205/269/329	123	282	11	10	30%	7%	69	-0.9	200/273/347	147	275	17	7	32%	8%	75	-0.5	210/288/419	208	272	29	1	33%	8%	97	+0.6
✕Paul Vasquez 2008 · A	23	47	43→45	52→30	39	231/269/343	113	305	10	10	28%	5%	72	-0.7	230/268/333	103	291	8	5	23%	3%	69	-0.9	232/265/336	104	290	8	2	22%	2%	64	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps