Carson Pierce — OGILVIE

Carson Pierce P Vancouver Canadians

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 16 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.70

FIP5.70

K%18.7%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%0.9%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	11	50	14	6	0	17%	1.9	28.0%	12.0%	16.0%	0.0%	4.76	2.26	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	1	11	50	14	6	0	17%	1.9	28.0%	12.0%	16.0%	0.0%	4.76	2.22	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	10	64	272	66	26	2	38%	2.5	18.5%	11.1%	7.4%	0.9%	2.95	3.42	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	10	64	272	66	26	2	38%	2.5	18.5%	11.1%	7.4%	0.9%	2.95	3.42	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	10	64	272	66	26	2	38%	2.5	24.3%	9.6%	14.7%	0.7%	2.95	2.66	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	1	25	111	22	22	3	8%	1.9	14.4%	25.2%	-10.7%	1.3%	4.32	5.78	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	1	25	111	22	22	3	8%	1.9	14.4%	25.2%	-10.7%	1.3%	4.32	5.78	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	1	25	111	22	22	3	8%	1.9	19.8%	19.8%	0.0%	2.7%	4.32	5.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TOR	15	0	16	68	13	12	2	0%	1.1	18.7%	17.8%	0.9%	2.8%	5.70	5.70	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TOR	21	0	22	95	19	16	3	0%	1.1	19.7%	16.9%	2.8%	2.8%	5.53	5.51	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TOR	10	0	10	42	8	7	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	16.9%	2.8%	2.8%	5.53	5.51	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	41	8	7	1	0%	1.1	19.7%	16.9%	2.8%	2.8%	5.53	5.13	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	145	21	0%	1.1	19.7%	16.9%	2.8%	2.8%	5.53	5.13	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		45	12	100	433	80	64	4	27%	2.2	18.6%	14.8%	3.8%	0.9%	3.50	3.89	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	24	200	863	160	128	8	27%	2.2	18.6%	14.8%	3.8%	0.9%	3.50	3.89	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Pierce (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.70	18.7%	17.8%	2.8%	—	5.51	19.7%	2.8%	22	-0.19	—	—	—
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	84
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	83
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	81
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	80
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	80
Jake Eddington R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	23	SW	5.02	18.8%	24.1%	0.8%	.316	4.83	16.6%	-1.5%	105	-0.19	4.70	135	79
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	79
Drake Fellows R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	25	SW	5.66	17.1%	20.4%	2.6%	.367	4.88	14.6%	5.6%	271	-0.78	4.28	282	77
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	77
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	25	SU	4.61	20.9%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.12	24.4%	7.6%	107	-0.49	3.92	311	77
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	77
Danny Reynolds R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	25	SU	4.72	16.6%	16.8%	1.6%	.263	3.71	16.0%	4.3%	88	-1.01	3.29	165	76
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	76
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	76
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	76
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.13	18.4%	7.3%	90	-0.76	3.84	164	76
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	75
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	75
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	75
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	75