Erik Ritchie

P Clearwater Threshers

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 211 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX3 levels	28	39	6.18	4.60	23.1%	16.7%	—	K 15.9% · BB 20.5% · FIP 6.18
2027PROJ	24	MLBPHI	16	17	5.41	5.41	20.7%	16.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBPHI	14	15	5.18	5.09	21.3%	14.0%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsBrendan Nail (age 23) · Jackson Lancaster (age 24) · Dillon Larsen (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136

ERA5.41

FIP5.41

K%20.7%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%4.7%

Proj IP17

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	39	186	43	31	4	0%	1.4	15.9%	20.5%	-4.6%	3.3%	6.18	6.18	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	39	186	43	31	4	0%	1.4	15.9%	20.5%	-4.6%	3.3%	6.18	6.18	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	0	39	186	43	31	4	0%	1.4	23.1%	16.7%	6.5%	2.2%	6.18	4.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	PHI	16	0	17	72	15	11	2	0%	1.1	20.7%	16.0%	4.7%	3.0%	5.41	5.41	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	34	0	36	151	32	21	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	14.0%	7.4%	3.0%	5.18	5.09	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	14	0	15	63	14	9	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	14.0%	7.4%	3.0%	5.18	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	15	65	14	9	2	0%	1.0	21.3%	14.0%	7.4%	3.0%	5.18	4.71	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	118	26	0%	1.1	21.3%	14.0%	7.4%	3.0%	5.18	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		28	0	39	186	30	38	6	0%	1.4	15.9%	20.5%	-4.6%	3.3%	6.18	6.18	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	0	200	946	151	194	32	0%	1.4	15.9%	20.5%	-4.6%	3.3%	6.18	6.18	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erik Ritchie (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.41	20.7%	16.0%	3.0%	—	5.09	21.3%	7.4%	36	-0.32	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	89
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	89
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	88
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	85
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	85
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	85
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	85
Gabriel Sequeira L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	19.3%	13.1%	2.7%	.294	3.57	21.4%	10.0%	63	-1.03	2.62	160	84
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	84
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	83
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	83
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	83
Kelly Secrest L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.47	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.95	3.11	151	83
Ben Harris L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	23.8%	19.6%	3.8%	.291	4.74	21.1%	0.9%	30	-0.92	3.06	183	82
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	82
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	82
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	81
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	81
Renyel Pinto L 2006 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	26.7%	20.0%	2.2%	.246	4.42	21.2%	7.6%	185	-0.18	3.58	231	80
Jason Kershner L 2002 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	16.8%	12.1%	2.8%	.233	4.04	14.5%	8.1%	76	-0.72	3.87	100	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	21.1%	14.6%	1.16	5.25
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*