Luke Pelzer

LF Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 24 L/L 5'10" / 190 lbs A+ HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2030MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	AKC	83	.446/.561/.585	0	6	166	—	.357/.451/.471
2026	23	AA/A+2 orgs	481	.337/.410/.467	4	42	103	—	.289/.342/.391
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBKC	1	.233/.294/.318	0	0	75	-0.0
2028PROJ22% MLB	25	MLBKC	57	.236/.298/.331	1	2	79	-0.0
2029PROJ35% MLB	26	MLBKC	106	.237/.300/.339	1	3	83	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Whiff%90

Speed86

Z-Con%85

wOBA78

K%78

wRC+75

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 93%

CompsJacob Young (age 24) · Kyle Wren (age 24) · Zack Granite (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .294 / .318

PA1

HR0

K%24

BB%7

BABIP305

ISO78

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	65	29	9	0	0	15	10	2	6	3	446	561	585	1.146	138	518	12	18	501	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	186	163	55	7	2	0	20	36	2	14	4	337	416	405	821	67	430	19	11	372	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	295	261	88	18	7	4	30	63	0	28	4	337	405	506	911	169	431	21	10	397	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	70	25	8	0	0	10	14	2	6	3	357	451	471	923	114	441	17	12	413	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	186	170	50	6	2	0	13	44	2	14	4	294	351	353	704	59	391	24	7	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	295	270	77	14	6	3	21	80	0	28	4	285	337	415	752	130	386	27	7	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	70	25	8	0	0	10	14	2	6	3	357	451	471	923	114	439	17	12	413	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	65	29	9	0	0	15	10	2	6	3	446	561	585	1.146	138	518	12	18	501	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	481	440	127	20	8	3	34	124	2	42	8	289	342	391	733	102	394	26	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	481	424	143	25	9	4	50	99	2	42	8	337	410	467	877	130	430	21	10	387	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	71	25	8	0	0	10	14	2	6	3	352	451	465	916	113	441	17	12	413	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	481	442	127	20	8	3	34	124	2	42	8	287	342	389	732	102	388	26	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	71	25	8	0	0	10	14	2	6	3	352	451	465	916	113	441	17	12	413	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	481	442	127	20	8	3	34	124	2	42	8	287	342	389	732	102	388	26	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	KC	0%	380	347	81	15	3	3	27	91	3	13	3	235	295	320	615	85	307	24	7	279	75	-11	+1	-0	-4	+8	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	KC	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	233	294	318	612	85	305	0	0	277	75	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	22%	260	237	56	10	2	3	19	62	2	9	2	237	299	334	633	97	306	24	7	286	79	-6	+1	-0	-3	+6	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	35%	305	277	66	12	2	4	23	72	2	10	2	239	301	344	645	105	306	24	8	290	83	-6	+1	-0	-3	+7	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	40%	321	292	69	13	2	4	24	76	2	10	2	238	301	344	645	106	305	24	7	290	83	-7	+1	-0	-3	+7	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	44%	328	298	71	13	2	5	25	78	2	9	2	237	300	343	643	106	303	24	8	289	82	-7	+1	-1	-4	+7	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	45%	321	292	68	13	2	4	24	77	2	8	2	235	298	340	638	105	301	24	7	287	81	-7	+1	-1	-3	+7	-0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	45%	314	286	66	12	2	4	23	77	2	8	2	232	295	332	627	100	299	25	7	283	78	-8	+1	-2	-3	+7	-0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	22%	57	53	12	2	0	1	4	14	0	2	0	236	298	331	628	95	305	25	7	284	79	-1	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	35%	106	96	22	4	1	1	8	25	1	3	1	237	300	339	639	102	304	24	8	288	83	-2	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	40%	129	117	28	5	1	2	10	31	1	4	1	236	299	340	639	103	303	24	8	288	83	-3	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	44%	143	130	31	6	1	2	11	34	1	4	1	235	298	338	636	103	301	24	8	287	82	-3	+0	-0	-2	+3	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	45%	143	130	31	6	1	2	11	34	1	4	1	233	297	335	632	102	299	24	8	285	81	-3	+0	-1	-2	+3	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	45%	142	129	31	6	1	2	11	35	1	3	1	230	293	328	621	98	298	25	8	280	78	-4	+0	-1	-2	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	720	655	155	29	5	10	55	173	5	20	5	237	301	342	643	105	304	24	8	285	87	-16	+2	-2	-8	+16	-0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	140	26	5	9	50	156	5	18	5	237	302	343	646	107	304	24	8	285	87	-15	+2	-2	-7	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	2623	2384	592	109	22	28	197	630	17	109	25	248	310	348	658	99	324	24	8	297	87	-48	+7	-5	-22	+45	-2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	146	27	5	7	49	156	4	27	6	247	309	345	654	98	322	24	8	297	87	-15	+2	-1	-7	+14	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 295 PAwOBA .388 → .324 (−64)K% 21.4% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.36%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	27.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.17%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.988	7.13%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	29.80%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.022	×0.988	27.68%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.022	×0.988	7.43%
Triples /BIP	3.54%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.022	×0.988	3.03%
Home runs /BIP	2.02%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.988	1.60%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .388 → .324; ISO .169 → .136; BABIP .431 → .386. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 186 PAwOBA .362 → .315 (−46)K% 19.4% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.35%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	23.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.68%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.012	6.86%
HBP% /PA	1.08%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	0.95%
Singles /BIP	36.22%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.987	×1.012	33.27%
Doubles /BIP	5.51%	÷1.000	×0.840	×0.987	×1.012	4.62%
Triples /BIP	1.57%	÷1.000	×0.940	×0.987	×1.012	1.48%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .362 → .315; ISO .067 → .059; BABIP .430 → .391. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 83 PAwOBA .495 → .413 (−82)K% 12.0% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.05%	÷0.982	×1.360	—	—	16.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.07%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×0.990	12.27%
HBP% /PA	2.41%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	1.86%
Singles /BIP	36.36%	÷1.099	×0.920	—	×0.990	30.14%
Doubles /BIP	16.36%	÷0.913	×0.830	—	×0.990	14.73%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.937	×0.910	—	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.086	×0.800	—	×0.990	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 120, 2B 83, 3B 87, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .495 → .413; ISO .138 → .130; BABIP .518 → .441. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	2.9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.6
/162	664	4	56	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Eric Owens'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,576 PA	3.9	2,576	26	126	253*	303*	334*	-18	+1	-0.9	0.4
/162	664	7	32	-4.5	+0.2	-0.2	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.1	721	10	20	237	297	341	-4	+0	0.1	0.1
/162	664	9	19	-4.0	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Jolbert Cabrera'98-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	18	38	247*	295*	354*	-3	-9	-1.1	-0.7
/162	664	8	16	-1.4	-4.0	-0.5	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Pelzer (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	233/293/317	85	307	1	7	24%	7%	75	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jacob Young 2023 · A	24	48→57	36→40	62→60	47	224/291/290	66	287	3	28	22%	7%	68	-1.0	246/305/325	79	305	4	32	19%	6%	80	-0.1	242/306/331	89	291	7	29	18%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Kyle Wren 2015 · AA	24	56→62	36→40	60	45	261/303/339	77	319	2	32	18%	5%	82	-0.0	253/304/319	66	314	2	28	19%	7%	78	-0.3	254/314/331	77	325	3	25	21%	8%	82	-0.0
✕Zack Granite 2017 · AA	24	54→61	36→40	59→60	48	253/298/324	71	290	3	30	14%	6%	77	-0.3	250/294/327	77	282	4	24	12%	6%	76	-0.4	247/289/316	70	276	4	22	12%	5%	69	-0.7
✕Yoyner Fajardo 2024 · AA	25	53→58	41→40	59→60	46	251/305/353	101	312	7	31	21%	7%	86	+0.3	245/302/330	85	317	5	25	23%	7%	80	-0.1	248/308/313	65	326	3	26	23%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Ryan Rogowski 2008 · A	24	47→46	39→40	61→55	50	219/289/319	100	273	4	25	20%	8%	74	-0.6	218/286/303	85	270	5	25	20%	8%	69	-0.9	215/286/284	70	259	5	32	18%	8%	63	-1.1
✕Hak-Ju Lee 2014 · AAA	23	54→59	39→40	60→55	47	252/309/349	97	323	5	27	22%	7%	87	+0.4	213/271/293	80	303	6	20	29%	7%	61	-1.5	201/259/269	69	292	5	20	31%	7%	48	-1.2
✕Ian Miller 2016 · AA	24	52→59	35→40	59→60	43	241/281/304	64	308	1	31	22%	5%	65	-1.2	248/294/311	63	311	2	35	20%	5%	72	-0.7	243/292/329	86	310	6	35	22%	5%	74	-0.5
✕Cody Milligan 2024 · AA	25	52→56	38→40	57→60	48	239/308/327	88	324	4	20	26%	8%	82	-0.0	209/272/298	89	302	5	28	30%	7%	62	-1.4	189/253/270	81	279	4	34	31%	7%	46	-1.8
✕Darrell Ceciliani 2014 · AA	24	53→56	40→45	57→55	41	250/296/347	97	333	6	22	26%	5%	82	-0.0	249/289/362	113	326	10	21	25%	5%	83	+0.1	247/287/366	119	316	11	21	25%	4%	82	-0.0
✕Travis Jankowski 2015 · AA	24	52→62	35→40	61→65	46	243/295/306	63	309	2	36	21%	7%	72	-0.7	257/321/333	76	332	3	32	21%	8%	88	+0.4	260/330/331	71	340	2	35	22%	9%	89	+0.4
✕Jose Constanza 2008 · A	24	53→63	36→40	58→60	46	248/300/313	65	321	3	26	22%	7%	75	-0.5	263/312/328	65	318	1	30	16%	7%	82	+0.0	288/334/346	58	335	2	37	14%	6%	91	+0.6
✕Matt Angle 2010 · AA	24	55→57	35→40	55→60	49	255/312/318	63	317	3	23	20%	7%	81	-0.1	248/304/312	64	310	4	26	20%	7%	77	-0.3	246/305/310	63	310	4	28	20%	7%	74	-0.5
✕Emeel Salem 2009 · A	24	52	37→40	60→55	47	244/288/320	76	290	4	30	17%	6%	72	-0.7	236/287/311	75	276	3	20	14%	6%	70	-0.8	237/290/311	73	275	2	20	14%	6%	67	-0.9
✕Charlie Tilson 2018 · AAA	25	54→60	40	57→55	47	259/307/360	100	305	6	22	17%	6%	88	+0.5	232/278/302	70	294	4	13	21%	5%	65	-1.2	238/284/300	62	307	2	16	22%	5%	64	-0.8
✕Thomas Coyle 2015 · A	24	47→51	39→40	58→55	48	223/292/312	89	292	5	21	24%	8%	73	-0.6	199/264/292	93	285	6	19	30%	8%	58	-1.7	177/246/271	94	259	6	22	32%	8%	45	-1.4
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	48	40	58→60	50	227/300/324	96	299	6	22	24%	9%	78	-0.3	217/281/294	77	280	5	17	23%	7%	65	-1.2	198/260/219	21	246	0	22	18%	6%	36	-0.7
✕James Rapoport 2009 · AA	24	47→55	36→40	56→55	42	224/267/287	63	291	3	22	24%	5%	57	-1.8	237/299/305	68	286	4	11	17%	8%	74	-0.6	236/307/296	60	278	3	8	15%	8%	73	-0.6
✕John Andreoli 2014 · AA	24	55→58	36→45	61→60	49	251/319/328	77	334	2	32	24%	9%	86	+0.3	228/302/314	86	316	5	34	27%	9%	77	-0.3	212/294/333	120	304	10	33	31%	10%	76	-0.4
✕Kyle Mottice 2019 · A	23	49	35→30	58→55	54	226/330/288	62	269	2	18	15%	9%	84	+0.1	231/325/290	59	283	2	18	17%	8%	82	-0.0	240/333/283	43	295	0	25	16%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Mickey McDonald 2019 · A	24	48→53	37→30	57→50	45	229/279/298	69	292	4	15	22%	6%	64	-1.3	212/272/272	60	308	2	15	29%	7%	56	-1.9	219/289/276	57	317	2	17	29%	7%	62	-1.0

Luke Pelzer

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps