Luke Pelzer — OGILVIE

Luke PelzerOF Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 23 L/L 5'10" / 190 lbs A+ HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION280 act + 186 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.237 / .303 / .344

PA186

HR2

SB10

K%29

BB%8

BABIP337

ISO107

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED70

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	71	25	9	0	0	9	15	2	6	3	352	439	479	918	127	439	18	11	412	173	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	65	29	9	0	0	15	10	2	6	3	446	561	585	1.146	138	518	12	18	501	242	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A+	KC	—	280	256	71	14	5	3	20	84	0	26	4	277	330	406	736	129	400	30	7	315	99	-0	+4	+0	-2	+8	1.0
YTD	23	A+	KC	—	280	248	83	17	6	4	28	62	0	26	4	335	402	500	902	165	432	22	10	393	159	+19	+4	+0	-2	+8	2.9
ROS	23	A+	KC	0%	186	168	40	8	2	2	15	55	1	10	2	237	303	344	647	107	333	29	8	293	82	-4	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.2
ROS	23	MLB	KC	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						329	0	0	286	77	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	A+	KC	—	281	257	71	14	5	3	20	84	0	26	4	276	329	405	733	128	398	30	7	315	99	-0	+4	+0	-2	+8	1.0
TOT	23	A+	KC	—	466	424	111	22	7	5	35	139	1	36	6	261	319	381	701	120	375	30	8	306	92	-4	+5	+0	-3	+13	1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	KC	30%	491	446	107	21	5	8	39	141	3	18	3	240	305	363	669	123	327	29	8	296	85	-8	+2	+0	-3	+14	0.5
2028	25	MLB	KC	44%	504	456	110	21	5	9	40	142	3	17	3	241	307	368	675	127	325	28	8	300	88	-7	+2	+0	-3	+14	0.7
2029	26	MLB	KC	51%	509	460	111	22	4	10	41	142	3	17	3	241	308	372	679	130	323	28	8	302	89	-6	+2	+0	-3	+14	0.8
2030	27	MLB	KC	52%	508	457	110	21	4	10	42	142	4	16	3	241	310	370	680	129	322	28	8	303	90	-6	+2	+0	-3	+14	0.8
2031	28	MLB	KC	53%	504	454	108	21	4	9	42	141	3	15	3	238	307	361	668	123	322	28	8	302	89	-6	+2	-1	-3	+14	0.6
2032	29	MLB	KC	53%	497	449	106	21	4	9	42	140	3	14	3	236	306	361	666	125	321	28	8	300	88	-7	+2	-1	-3	+14	0.4
2033	30	MLB	KC	52%	490	443	104	20	4	9	41	139	3	14	3	235	304	359	663	124	320	28	8	297	85	-8	+2	-2	-3	+14	0.2
2034	31	MLB	KC	52%	482	436	100	19	4	8	40	139	3	13	2	229	299	346	645	117	317	29	8	293	82	-10	+2	-3	-3	+14	0.0
2027	24	MLB	KC	30%	149	135	31	6	1	2	12	43	1	5	1	230	297	333	631	104	324	29	8	288	79	-4	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.0
2028	25	MLB	KC	44%	223	202	48	9	2	4	18	63	1	8	1	238	303	361	665	124	321	28	8	292	81	-5	+1	+0	-1	+6	0.2
2029	26	MLB	KC	51%	258	233	56	11	2	5	21	72	2	8	2	240	309	369	678	129	319	28	8	294	83	-5	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.2
2030	27	MLB	KC	52%	266	240	57	11	2	5	22	74	2	8	2	237	307	362	669	125	318	28	8	294	83	-5	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.2
2031	28	MLB	KC	53%	269	243	57	11	2	5	22	75	2	8	2	235	303	358	661	123	318	28	8	293	82	-5	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.1
2032	29	MLB	KC	53%	261	235	56	11	2	5	22	74	2	8	1	238	309	366	675	128	317	28	8	291	81	-6	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.1
2033	30	MLB	KC	52%	255	230	53	10	2	4	21	73	2	7	1	230	300	343	644	113	316	29	8	289	79	-6	+1	-1	-2	+7	-0.0
2034	31	MLB	KC	52%	250	225	52	10	2	4	21	72	2	7	1	231	302	347	649	116	313	29	8	285	76	-7	+1	-1	-2	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1932	1744	410	79	15	34	159	546	14	59	11	235	304	356	660	121	321	28	8	291	81	-42	+7	-4	-12	+55	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	138	27	5	11	53	184	5	20	4	235	304	354	658	119	322	28	8	291	81	-14	+2	-1	-4	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	4254	3840	921	183	36	74	351	1196	28	140	28	240	308	364	672	124	327	28	8	301	89	-55	+17	-7	-26	+121	5.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	140	28	5	11	54	183	4	21	4	239	307	359	666	121	326	28	8	301	89	-8	+3	-1	-4	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	65	29	9	0	0	15	10	2	6	3	446	561	585	1.146	138	518	12	18	501	242	+13	+0	—	—	+2	1.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Damian Jacksonlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,930 PA	6	1,930	21	95	248	324	354	-6	-5	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	7	33	248	324	354	-1.9	-1.6	1.2	pk7: 4
#4Chris Singletonlast yr '05 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,909 PA	5	1,909	28	61	265	308	392	-9	-3	3.3	3.3
	/162	664	10	21	265	308	392	-3.0	-1.2	1.2	pk7: 3
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,932	35	59	238	303	363	-12	+0	2.1	2.1
	/162	664	12	20	238	303	363	-4.0	+0.0	0.7	pk7: 2
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Pelzer (OGILVIE)	23	40→45	34→39	65→70	55	261/319/381	120	375	5	36	30%	8%	92	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	49	40	58→60	50	229/302/326	97	301	6	22	24%	9%	77	+0.1	218/282/296	78	282	5	17	23%	7%	61	-1.0	200/262/221	21	248	0	22	18%	6%	30	-0.7
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	43→49	40→45	58→55	46	205/275/300	94	276	6	17	27%	8%	59	-1.1	222/298/307	85	300	5	16	25%	9%	71	-0.3	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→50	58→60	54	209/313/325	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	83	+0.6	220/319/358	138	276	15	33	24%	11%	94	+1.3	216/315/358	142	266	16	40	24%	11%	89	+1.0
✕Anthony Jackson 2008 · A	24	43→53	41→40	61→55	42	209/264/315	106	286	6	19	28%	6%	58	-1.2	230/284/308	78	295	4	25	22%	6%	64	-0.8	255/321/326	71	317	4	28	19%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Donnie Dewees 2017 · A	23	49→51	40→45	62→50	41	233/275/340	108	297	4	17	23%	5%	69	-0.4	215/263/324	109	266	8	14	22%	5%	59	-1.1	205/256/316	111	247	9	13	21%	6%	52	-1.3
✕Darin Mastroianni 2009 · A	23	42→52	38→40	60	41	201/253/277	76	278	5	22	29%	6%	43	-2.2	244/309/320	76	313	3	35	21%	8%	78	+0.2	252/319/328	76	317	2	38	19%	8%	81	+0.4
●Victor Labrada 2023 · A	23	41→51	41→45	54→60	39	197/261/298	101	307	8	21	36%	7%	53	-1.5	218/285/326	108	307	9	31	30%	7%	71	-0.3	234/316/361	128	305	11	38	25%	9%	90	+0.8
✕Adonis Pacheco 2013 · A	22	45	39→50	57→55	45	213/271/312	99	277	4	16	24%	7%	60	-1.0	204/258/296	92	260	5	11	22%	6%	50	-1.7	160/206/240	80	191	3	9	17%	6%	11	-1.2
✕Corey Rosier 2023 · A	23	48→51	42→40	62→60	49	229/304/341	112	296	9	28	25%	9%	82	+0.5	215/276/314	99	288	8	33	26%	7%	63	-0.8	205/266/300	95	272	8	36	26%	7%	52	-1.0
✕Joe Mahoney 2010 · A	23	43→52	41→50	56→50	36	213/249/316	103	298	8	13	31%	4%	52	-1.6	243/279/376	133	317	13	10	27%	4%	81	+0.4	250/286/391	141	314	14	8	25%	4%	86	+0.6
✕Matt Rudick 2022 · A	24	45→44	39→45	56→50	49	215/284/308	92	270	6	11	22%	8%	66	-0.6	212/297/327	115	264	10	14	22%	9%	77	+0.1	206/302/338	132	254	15	16	24%	10%	78	+0.1
✕James Ramsay 2015 · A	23	43→53	38→40	58→50	46	201/269/295	94	278	3	19	28%	8%	55	-1.4	223/281/321	98	288	7	11	24%	7%	67	-0.5	227/285/322	95	286	8	8	22%	7%	66	-0.5
✕Joshua Howard 2006 · A	23	51	36→40	57→60	44	236/288/314	77	305	2	18	22%	6%	67	-0.5	225/299/290	65	314	3	20	26%	9%	66	-0.6	218/300/268	50	309	2	23	27%	10%	59	-0.6
✕Anthony Norman 2008 · A	23	53→42	37→50	61→55	48	245/303/328	84	291	2	12	16%	6%	77	+0.1	222/302/363	141	273	13	18	23%	9%	88	+0.9	212/297/363	151	268	15	22	25%	9%	83	+0.2
✕Phillip Ervin 2015 · A	23	44→50	43→50	57→55	44	214/268/338	124	268	9	16	23%	6%	66	-0.6	212/284/333	121	266	12	24	24%	8%	72	-0.2	232/296/372	140	294	14	21	25%	7%	84	+0.5
✕Ryan Rogowski 2007 · A	23	49→46	40	59→55	52	231/303/334	103	280	6	19	19%	9%	79	+0.3	219/288/309	90	274	4	26	20%	8%	67	-0.5	214/285/300	86	266	4	31	20%	8%	61	-0.8
✕Kameron Misner 2021 · A	23	46→43	39→50	54→55	48	217/293/303	87	305	6	13	29%	9%	68	-0.5	199/283/333	134	317	13	21	38%	10%	72	-0.2	205/283/356	150	291	16	27	33%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	49→59	38→30	56→70	49	228/296/314	87	301	4	17	24%	8%	72	-0.2	265/309/316	51	306	1	59	13%	6%	76	+0.0	299/334/350	51	335	0	65	10%	5%	92	+0.9
✕Tristan Peters 2023 · AA	23	45→53	44→45	53→50	48	218/288/344	126	281	9	14	25%	8%	76	+0.1	229/295/348	119	286	9	12	22%	8%	80	+0.4	238/306/369	131	290	10	10	21%	8%	87	+0.6
✕Tucker Bradley 2022 · A	24	47→53	41→50	54→50	47	223/295/331	108	303	8	11	27%	8%	76	+0.1	244/308/384	140	316	13	15	26%	8%	95	+1.4	252/316/405	153	320	16	17	25%	8%	100	+1.2