Luke Pelzer — OGILVIE

Luke PelzerLF Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 23 L/L 5'10" / 190 lbs A+ HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION477 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .333 / .250

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP344

ISO94

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT49

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED70

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	65	29	9	0	0	15	10	2	6	3	446	561	585	1.146	138	518	12	18	501	225	+12	+0	—	—	+2	1.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	71	27	9	0	0	9	14	2	6	3	380	463	507	970	127	452	17	11	416	168	+7	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	71	27	9	0	0	9	14	2	6	3	380	463	507	970	127	466	17	11	416	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	65	29	9	0	0	15	10	2	6	3	446	561	585	1.146	138	518	12	18	501	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	72	27	9	0	0	9	14	2	6	3	375	463	500	963	125	452	17	11	416	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	72	27	9	0	0	9	14	2	6	3	375	463	500	963	125	452	17	11	416	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	KC	—	477	436	125	21	7	3	34	128	2	42	8	287	341	388	729	101	397	27	7	318	102	+1	+5	+0	-5	+10	1.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ RAW	KC	—	295	261	88	18	7	4	30	63	0	28	4	337	405	506	911	169	431	21	10	397	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA RAW	KC	—	182	160	54	7	2	0	19	35	2	14	4	338	414	406	821	69	429	19	10	372	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A+ MLE	KC	0%	9	8	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	250	333	250	583		347	22	11	305	93	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
TOT	23	A+ MLE	KC	—	486	444	127	21	7	3	35	130	2	43	8	286	341	385	726	99	396	27	7	318	101	+1	+5	+0	-5	+11	1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	KC	30%	515	468	120	22	5	5	39	128	3	21	4	256	318	357	674	100	341	25	8	307	94	-4	+3	+0	-6	+11	0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	44%	550	499	130	24	5	8	42	135	4	20	4	261	323	377	700	116	338	25	8	312	98	-2	+2	+0	-6	+12	0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	51%	555	503	131	24	5	9	43	135	4	19	4	260	324	382	705	121	336	24	8	315	100	-0	+2	+0	-6	+12	0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	52%	554	501	130	24	5	9	44	135	4	18	4	259	324	381	705	122	334	24	8	316	100	-0	+2	+0	-6	+12	0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	53%	550	497	128	23	5	9	44	135	4	17	4	258	323	378	701	121	334	25	8	315	99	-1	+2	-1	-6	+12	0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	53%	543	490	126	23	5	9	44	134	4	16	3	257	323	380	703	122	331	25	8	311	97	-2	+2	-1	-6	+12	0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	52%	535	483	122	22	5	8	43	134	4	15	3	253	319	369	687	116	329	25	8	307	94	-4	+2	-2	-6	+12	0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	KC	52%	526	474	118	21	4	8	43	133	4	14	3	249	317	361	677	112	324	25	8	302	91	-6	+2	-3	-6	+11	-0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	KC	52%	384	347	84	15	3	5	31	99	3	10	2	242	310	346	656	104	319	26	8	295	86	-6	+1	-4	-4	+8	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	KC	30%	156	142	38	7	2	2	12	39	1	6	1	268	329	387	716	120	338	25	8	299	94	-1	+1	+0	-2	+3	0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	44%	243	220	57	10	3	3	19	59	2	9	2	259	324	373	696	114	335	24	8	304	98	-1	+1	+0	-3	+5	0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	51%	282	256	66	12	3	4	22	69	2	10	2	258	321	375	696	117	333	24	8	306	100	-0	+1	+0	-3	+6	0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	52%	290	263	67	12	3	4	23	71	2	10	2	255	319	369	688	114	331	24	8	306	100	-0	+1	+0	-3	+6	0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	53%	293	265	67	12	3	4	24	72	2	9	2	253	320	366	686	113	331	25	8	305	99	-0	+1	-0	-3	+6	0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	53%	285	258	65	12	3	4	23	70	2	8	2	252	318	368	686	116	328	25	8	302	97	-1	+1	-1	-3	+6	0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	52%	279	252	63	11	3	4	23	70	2	8	2	250	318	365	683	115	326	25	8	299	94	-2	+1	-1	-3	+6	0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	KC	52%	273	247	62	11	3	4	22	69	2	7	2	251	317	368	686	117	321	25	8	293	91	-3	+1	-1	-3	+6	-0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	KC	52%	198	179	42	7	2	2	16	51	1	5	1	235	301	330	631	95	317	26	8	287	86	-3	+1	-2	-2	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2299	2082	527	94	25	31	184	570	16	72	16	253	319	367	686	114	333	25	8	301	97	-12	+8	-5	-25	+50	1.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	150	27	7	9	52	161	5	20	5	255	321	370	691	115	334	25	8	301	97	-3	+2	-2	-7	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4804	4341	1118	207	42	70	383	1184	36	157	34	258	323	373	696	115	337	25	8	311	97	-25	+18	-10	-51	+102	3.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	151	28	6	9	52	160	5	21	5	257	323	371	694	114	336	25	8	311	97	-3	+2	-1	-7	+14	0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#2Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	4.8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
/162	664	12	20	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#3Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#4Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#5Norichika Aokilast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,044 PA	4.6	3,044	33	98	285	350	387	-33	-15	7.4	7.4
/162	664	7	21	-7.1	-3.4	1.6	pk7: 7
#6Alejandro De Azalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,819 PA	4.2	2,819	51	89	259	325	396	-6	-12	7.0	7.2
/162	664	12	21	-1.4	-2.8	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	3.5	2,301	34	72	256	318	373	-14	+0	4.5	4.3
/162	664	10	21	-4.0	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Pelzer (OGILVIE)	23	44→49	32→37	65→70	53	258/318/355	98	347	1	10	25%	8%	93	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	49	40	58→60	50	229/302/326	97	301	6	22	24%	9%	80	-0.2	218/282/296	78	282	5	17	23%	7%	65	-1.2	200/262/221	21	248	0	22	18%	6%	38	-0.7
✕Joshua Howard 2006 · A	23	51	36→40	57→60	44	236/288/314	77	305	2	18	22%	6%	71	-0.8	226/300/291	65	315	3	20	26%	9%	71	-0.8	219/301/270	50	309	2	23	27%	10%	64	-0.6
✕Donnie Dewees 2017 · A	23	49→50	40→45	61→50	42	232/274/336	104	292	5	17	22%	5%	70	-0.8	221/267/328	107	271	8	14	21%	5%	67	-1.1	212/262/324	112	253	10	13	20%	6%	62	-1.2
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	49→59	38→30	56→70	48	228/294/313	86	300	4	17	24%	8%	74	-0.5	270/314/320	50	311	1	59	13%	6%	82	-0.0	303/337/348	46	336	0	63	10%	5%	93	+0.8
✕Saige Jenco 2017 · A	22	52	38→40	60→50	47	243/303/334	91	319	4	21	24%	8%	81	-0.1	214/287/300	86	312	4	13	30%	9%	68	-1.0	196/279/277	80	293	3	12	31%	10%	57	-0.8
✕Corey Rosier 2023 · A	23	47→52	42→40	62→60	49	227/302/337	110	300	8	28	26%	9%	82	+0.0	216/278/313	97	290	7	33	26%	7%	68	-1.0	208/271/300	92	276	7	36	26%	7%	60	-1.0
✕Anthony Norman 2008 · A	23	53→42	37→50	61→55	48	245/303/328	84	291	2	12	16%	6%	80	-0.2	221/300/359	138	271	13	18	22%	8%	88	+0.4	210/294/354	144	265	13	22	24%	9%	81	-0.0
●Ezequiel Carrera 2009 · A	22	50→60	39→45	57→60	45	235/296/328	93	301	6	20	23%	7%	78	-0.3	261/321/335	74	329	3	25	20%	7%	88	+0.4	256/323/358	102	320	11	15	22%	8%	93	+0.5
✕Darin Mastroianni 2009 · A	23	42→52	38→40	60	41	201/253/277	76	278	5	22	29%	6%	50	-2.3	248/313/323	75	316	3	35	21%	8%	82	+0.0	257/324/332	75	320	2	38	19%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Davis Bradshaw 2019 · A	21	52	37→40	59→50	45	244/300/322	78	309	3	20	21%	6%	78	-0.3	225/271/287	62	293	2	11	23%	4%	59	-1.7	271/324/338	67	344	3	10	21%	5%	87	+0.2
✕Hoy Park 2018 · A	22	43→49	39→45	58→55	46	205/275/296	91	274	6	17	26%	8%	63	-1.3	223/300/306	83	296	5	16	24%	9%	75	-0.5	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0
✕James Ramsay 2015 · A	23	43→53	38→40	58→50	46	201/270/296	95	279	4	19	28%	8%	61	-1.5	224/282/323	99	285	7	11	23%	7%	72	-0.7	229/285/325	97	283	8	8	21%	7%	70	-0.7
✕Anthony Jackson 2008 · A	24	43→53	41→40	61→55	42	209/264/315	106	286	6	19	28%	6%	63	-1.4	228/283/306	78	291	4	25	21%	6%	68	-1.0	250/318/323	72	306	4	28	18%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Jarrod Dyson 2007 · A	22	46→56	36→45	58→70	43	213/272/285	72	283	2	18	24%	6%	59	-1.7	225/276/278	53	314	1	30	27%	6%	58	-1.7	256/324/360	104	294	5	53	14%	7%	92	+0.4
✕Jon Matthews 2014 · A	23	42	38→40	58→60	41	198/263/275	77	278	5	25	29%	6%	54	-2.0	229/296/296	67	312	3	16	25%	8%	70	-0.8	240/310/292	52	324	2	16	24%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Roberto Caro 2016 · A	22	44→41	38→40	61→60	48	208/284/299	91	280	3	20	25%	8%	67	-1.1	208/276/283	75	319	2	18	32%	8%	60	-1.6	215/287/293	78	329	2	26	32%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Jacob Young 2023 · A	24	48→57	36→40	61→60	46	225/291/289	64	292	3	28	22%	7%	68	-1.0	248/306/326	78	309	4	32	20%	6%	81	-0.1	242/306/332	90	291	7	29	18%	7%	81	-0.0
●Jacob Hurtubise 2022 · A	24	51→61	34→40	57→60	50	231/324/289	58	315	1	29	24%	9%	81	-0.1	249/346/330	81	324	4	33	22%	9%	98	+1.2	259/361/346	87	332	5	39	21%	10%	104	+0.9
✕Randy Romero 2022 · A	22	46	36→40	59→60	44	214/256/282	68	260	2	21	18%	5%	52	-2.2	200/247/269	69	295	4	13	32%	5%	45	-2.7	168/205/208	40	267	3	19	37%	4%	15	-1.0
✕Brad Boyer 2008 · A	24	46→56	36→45	57→50	43	217/267/293	75	274	3	19	21%	5%	59	-1.7	252/306/356	104	316	6	13	21%	6%	88	+0.4	261/319/371	109	327	6	11	21%	7%	93	+0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps