Jayden Dubanewicz

P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 160 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.3 · 2034

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

Scout OFP45ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	MIX2 levels	19	11	82	2.40	2.87	18.9%	5.6%	—	K 13.6% · BB 6.8% · FIP 3.51
2026	20	MIX3 levels	20	15	80	4.41	3.95	23.3%	9.4%	—	K 17.7% · BB 11.1% · FIP 5.16
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIL	9	9	54	4.90	4.90	17.0%	9.2%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIL	6	6	38	4.79	4.71	19.0%	8.7%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIL	10	10	59	4.63	4.55	20.3%	8.4%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff48Control60Command48FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 84%

CompsJohnathan Harmon (age 22) · Tanner Hall (age 22) · Tyler McKay (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%17.0%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL6060

CMD3050

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$4M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	82	339	64	19	4	58%	4.3	13.6%	6.8%	6.8%	1.3%	2.40	3.51	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	82	339	64	19	4	58%	4.3	13.6%	6.8%	6.8%	1.3%	2.40	3.51	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	11	82	339	64	19	4	58%	4.3	18.9%	5.6%	13.3%	1.2%	2.40	2.87	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	15	80	339	79	32	10	75%	4.0	17.7%	11.1%	6.6%	3.9%	4.41	5.16	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	15	80	339	79	32	10	75%	4.0	17.7%	11.1%	6.6%	3.9%	4.41	5.16	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	15	80	339	79	32	10	75%	4.0	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	2.9%	4.41	3.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIL	9	9	54	228	39	21	7	100%	6.0	17.0%	9.2%	7.8%	3.1%	4.90	4.90	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	78	328	63	29	10	100%	6.0	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	3.0%	4.71	4.63	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	81	341	69	29	10	100%	5.8	20.3%	8.4%	11.8%	3.0%	4.55	4.47	+0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	83	349	73	29	10	100%	5.9	20.9%	8.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.43	4.36	+0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	84	353	75	28	10	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.0%	13.3%	2.9%	4.36	4.31	+0.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	84	353	76	28	10	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.0%	13.5%	2.9%	4.31	4.28	+0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	82	348	75	28	10	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.1%	13.4%	3.0%	4.32	4.32	+0.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	80	337	79	25	10	100%	6.1	23.4%	7.4%	15.9%	3.1%	4.21	4.14	+0.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	76	322	74	25	10	100%	5.9	23.1%	7.7%	15.5%	3.2%	4.24	4.27	+0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	72	303	69	24	10	100%	6.0	22.8%	8.0%	14.8%	3.4%	4.36	4.45	+0.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	67	282	63	23	10	100%	6.1	22.4%	8.3%	14.1%	3.7%	4.53	4.65	+0.2
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	62	261	57	23	10	100%	6.2	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	3.9%	4.74	4.87	+0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	38	160	31	14	5	100%	6.3	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	3.2%	4.79	4.71	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	59	249	50	21	8	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.4%	11.8%	3.1%	4.63	4.55	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	69	291	61	24	9	100%	5.8	20.9%	8.2%	12.7%	3.1%	4.51	4.44	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	74	312	67	25	10	100%	6.2	21.3%	8.0%	13.3%	3.1%	4.44	4.39	+0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	76	321	69	26	10	100%	5.8	21.5%	8.0%	13.5%	3.1%	4.39	4.36	+0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	76	321	69	26	10	100%	5.8	21.5%	8.1%	13.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.40	+0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	75	317	74	24	10	100%	6.2	23.4%	7.4%	15.9%	3.2%	4.29	4.22	+0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	72	304	70	23	10	100%	6.0	23.1%	7.7%	15.5%	3.4%	4.33	4.36	+0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	68	287	65	23	10	100%	6.2	22.8%	8.0%	14.8%	3.6%	4.45	4.54	+0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	64	270	60	22	10	100%	5.8	22.4%	8.3%	14.1%	3.8%	4.63	4.75	+0.2
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	59	249	55	22	10	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	4.1%	4.85	4.98	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		122	122	730	3084	671	250	103	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	3.3%	4.50	4.12	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	184	68	28	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	3.3%	4.50	4.12	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		39	26	162	678	106	61	18	67%	4.2	15.6%	8.9%	6.7%	2.6%	3.39	4.33	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	32	200	837	131	75	22	67%	4.2	15.6%	8.9%	6.7%	2.6%	3.39	4.33	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jayden Dubanewicz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	17.0%	9.2%	3.1%	—	4.48	20.1%	11.6%	241	-0.42	—	—	—
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	87
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	87
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	87
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	87
Shane Davis R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP-	5.21	17.3%	9.8%	4.2%	.313	4.19	20.9%	6.7%	55	-1.02	4.19	129	86
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	86
Hansel Paulino R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	21	SP-	4.38	15.8%	7.5%	3.0%	.302	4.45	18.5%	10.7%	18	+0.07	2.98	156	85
Andrew Cabezas R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	16.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.210	4.70	16.7%	6.9%	185	+0.11	4.16	300	85
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	84
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	84
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	84
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	84
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	84
Jesus Lugo R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP-	3.79	17.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.243	6.08	19.8%	10.5%	45	+2.29	3.79	113	84
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	84
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	84
Kyle Davies R 2005 · 4.27 FIP	21	SP-	4.27	15.4%	10.9%	2.0%	.311	4.79	15.5%	5.6%	312	+0.52	3.58	921	83
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	83
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	83
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	75	21.3%	8.2%	1.22	4.45
Brett Cecil ('18)	3.8	76	20.7%	8.3%	1.14	4.29
Claude Raymond ('59-'71, 0 WAR*)	3.6	66	20.9%*	7.9%*	1.34*	4.45*
Jesse Chavez ('25)	5.7	82	21.4%	7.4%	1.32	4.27
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48
Randy Moffitt ('72-'83, 4 WAR*)	3.9	78	19.4%*	8.3%*	1.08*	4.19*
Dennis Cook ('88-'02, 7 WAR*)	5.1	72	21.4%*	8.6%*	1.39*	4.02*