Jose Guedez — OGILVIE

Jose Guedez P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 193 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.63

FIP5.63

K%15.5%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%-0.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Orange	7	2	26	101	36	8	0	29%	3.7	24.2%	9.9%	14.3%	0.0%	0.69	2.31	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Orange	7	2	26	101	36	8	0	29%	3.7	35.6%	7.9%	27.7%	0.0%	0.69	1.25	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	40	184	52	35	0	57%	2.9	20.1%	21.1%	-1.0%	0.0%	4.50	4.08	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	8	40	184	52	35	0	57%	2.9	20.1%	21.1%	-1.0%	0.0%	4.50	4.08	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	8	40	184	52	35	0	57%	2.9	28.3%	19.0%	9.2%	0.0%	4.50	3.12	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	16	12	67	286	77	37	4	75%	4.2	20.7%	14.9%	5.9%	1.6%	3.24	4.13	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	16	12	67	286	77	37	4	75%	4.2	20.7%	14.9%	5.9%	1.6%	3.24	4.13	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	16	12	67	286	77	37	4	75%	4.2	26.9%	12.9%	14.0%	1.4%	3.24	3.23	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	20	11	83	369	74	43	8	55%	4.1	15.4%	13.4%	2.0%	2.1%	4.68	4.64	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	20	11	83	369	74	43	8	55%	4.1	15.4%	13.4%	2.0%	2.1%	4.68	4.64	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	20	11	83	369	74	43	8	55%	4.1	20.1%	11.7%	8.4%	2.2%	4.68	4.13	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	43	0	62	280	61	27	8	0%	1.4	17.5%	10.7%	6.7%	3.5%	5.63	4.91	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	43	0	62	280	61	27	8	0%	1.4	17.5%	10.7%	6.7%	3.5%	5.63	4.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	HOU	9	0	16	70	13	7	4	0%	1.7	18.6%	10.0%	8.6%	5.7%	6.32	5.93	—
2026	24	AA RAW	HOU	34	0	47	210	48	20	4	0%	1.4	22.9%	9.5%	13.3%	1.9%	5.40	3.42	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	HOU	5	0	6	24	4	4	1	0%	1.1	15.5%	15.9%	-0.3%	2.7%	5.63	5.63	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	68	304	65	31	9	—	—	21.3%	10.1%	11.2%	2.8%	5.63	4.97	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	HOU	72	0	75	318	54	45	9	0%	1.0	17.0%	14.3%	2.7%	2.7%	5.39	5.32	-0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	72	0	75	318	56	44	9	0%	1.0	17.8%	13.9%	3.9%	2.7%	5.25	5.21	-0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	71	0	74	313	57	43	9	0%	1.0	18.0%	13.7%	4.4%	2.8%	5.21	5.21	-0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	69	0	72	304	55	42	9	0%	1.0	18.1%	13.7%	4.3%	2.9%	5.24	5.27	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	66	0	69	290	52	41	9	0%	1.0	17.8%	14.0%	3.9%	3.0%	5.34	5.40	-0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	65	273	48	39	9	0%	1.0	17.5%	14.3%	3.2%	3.2%	5.48	5.58	-0.7
2027	25	MLB CTX	HOU	31	0	33	139	24	20	4	0%	1.1	17.0%	14.3%	2.7%	2.7%	5.39	5.32	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	48	0	50	211	38	29	6	0%	1.0	17.8%	13.9%	3.9%	2.7%	5.25	5.21	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	55	0	58	245	44	34	7	0%	1.1	18.0%	13.7%	4.4%	2.8%	5.21	5.21	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	58	0	61	258	46	35	7	0%	1.1	18.1%	13.7%	4.3%	2.9%	5.24	5.27	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	57	0	60	253	45	35	8	0%	1.1	17.8%	14.0%	3.9%	3.0%	5.34	5.40	-0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	HOU	55	0	58	245	43	35	8	0%	1.1	17.5%	14.3%	3.2%	3.2%	5.48	5.58	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		305	0	320	1352	240	188	39	0%	1.1	17.7%	13.9%	3.8%	2.9%	5.31	4.96	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	150	117	24	0%	1.1	17.7%	13.9%	3.8%	2.9%	5.31	4.96	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		100	33	278	1220	227	171	22	33%	2.8	18.6%	14.0%	4.6%	1.8%	4.15	4.30	-3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	24	200	879	163	123	16	33%	2.8	18.6%	14.0%	4.6%	1.8%	4.15	4.30	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Guedez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.63	15.5%	15.9%	2.7%	—	5.25	17.6%	3.7%	225	-0.38	—	—	—
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	84
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	84
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	83
Robbie Peto R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	24	SU	5.39	15.6%	19.4%	2.1%	.242	5.75	15.3%	1.9%	80	+0.36	5.39	232	82
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	81
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	81
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	81
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	80
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	80
John Matthews R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	16.5%	13.0%	2.1%	.264	5.00	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.49	4.51	213	80
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	80
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	80
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	79
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	79
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	79
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	79
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	79
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	79
Joe Nahas R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	23	SU	4.70	14.3%	13.3%	2.1%	.295	4.63	18.8%	10.6%	77	-0.07	4.33	328	79
Jack Jasiak R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	12.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.288	3.81	19.8%	12.1%	193	-1.22	3.24	262	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	71	17.4%	14.2%	1.10	5.36
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59