Jose Guedez — OGILVIE

Jose Guedez P Asheville Tourists

+0.0 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 193 lbs A+ peak 0.5 · 2028

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.1%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%8.3%

IP73

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2028

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†4545

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	20	ROK	DSL HOU Orange	7	2	26	101	36	8	0	24.2%	9.9%	0.0%	0.69	2.31	+0.8
2023	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	14	8	40	184	52	35	0	20.1%	21.1%	0.0%	4.50	4.08	+0.4
2024	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	16	12	67	286	77	37	4	20.7%	14.9%	1.6%	3.24	4.13	+0.7
2025	23	A+	Asheville Tourists	20	11	83	369	74	43	8	15.4%	13.4%	2.0%	4.68	4.58	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	A+	Asheville Tourists	3	0	7	31	5	2	1	—	—	—	3.68	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	HOU	13	13	73	309	57	42	8	18.3%	13.7%	2.6%	5.12	5.12	-0.0
2026 Total	24	MLB	HOU	—	—	80	340	62	44	9	18.1%	13.1%	2.7%	4.99	4.65	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	HOU	13	13	74	312	60	40	8	19.2%	12.7%	2.7%	4.97	4.92	+0.1
2028	26	MLB	HOU	13	13	74	312	62	39	8	19.7%	12.4%	2.7%	4.89	4.86	+0.2
2029	27	MLB	HOU	13	13	73	310	62	38	8	19.9%	12.3%	2.7%	4.85	4.84	+0.2
2030	28	MLB	HOU	13	13	72	305	61	37	8	20.0%	12.2%	2.7%	4.85	4.85	+0.2
2031	29	MLB	HOU	13	13	71	299	59	37	8	19.8%	12.3%	2.8%	4.88	4.90	+0.1
2032	30	MLB	HOU	12	12	69	290	57	36	8	19.6%	12.4%	2.9%	4.93	4.96	+0.1
2033	31	MLB	HOU	12	12	66	280	54	35	8	19.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.99	5.03	-0.0
2034	32	MLB	HOU	12	12	64	269	51	34	8	19.1%	12.7%	3.0%	5.07	5.12	-0.1
2035	33	MLB	HOU	11	11	61	256	48	33	8	18.8%	12.8%	3.1%	5.16	5.22	-0.2
2036	34	MLB	HOU	58	—	58	244	45	32	8	18.5%	13.1%	3.2%	5.26	5.33	-0.2
2037	35	MLB	HOU	54	—	54	230	42	31	8	18.1%	13.3%	3.3%	5.37	5.45	-0.3
2038	36	MLB	HOU	51	—	51	215	38	29	7	17.6%	13.5%	3.4%	5.50	5.58	-0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			60	33	223	971	183	143	13	18.8%	14.7%	1.3%	3.72	4.11	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—			54	30	200	872	164	128	12	18.8%	14.7%	1.3%	3.72	4.11	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Guedez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	18.3%	13.7%	2.6%	—	4.87	19.6%	7.2%	221	-0.25	—	—	—
David Trexler R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	17.7%	13.4%	2.3%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.14	4.44	100	96
Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	3.96	20.3%	11.1%	143	-0.28	3.84	206	92
David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP	25	SW	4.42	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.32	15.6%	5.5%	168	+0.90	4.42	239	91
Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	24	SW	4.56	19.8%	15.3%	2.2%	.283	4.53	18.5%	9.4%	111	-0.03	3.33	223	90
Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.59 FIP	25	SW	4.59	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.54	16.5%	2.8%	182	-0.05	3.49	237	90
Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	90
Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	24	SW	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	5.00	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.44	4.56	120	90
John Matthews R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	24	SW	4.46	16.5%	13.0%	2.0%	.264	4.99	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.53	4.46	213	89
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.72	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.14	4.04	404	89
Zach Linginfelter R 2026 · 5.56 FIP	24	SW	5.56	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.02	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.54	3.62	109	88
Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	24	SW	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.39	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.05	4.15	172	88
Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.69 FIP	25	SW	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.58	151	88
Ryan Ledbetter R 2026 · 4.75 FIP	24	SW	4.75	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.75	124	88
Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.47 FIP	24	SW	5.47	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.60	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.87	4.27	132	88
J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.70 FIP	24	SW	4.70	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+1.01	4.70	195	88
Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.07 FIP	25	SW	4.07	17.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.80	4.07	120	87
Jairo Díaz R 2026 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	18.8%	13.6%	2.4%	.281	3.31	20.2%	10.3%	18	-1.23	2.97	190	87
Taylor Grover R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	24	SW	5.00	15.1%	12.9%	2.8%	.229	4.32	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.68	3.69	239	87
Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	24	SW	4.43	15.4%	13.1%	1.8%	.341	4.98	13.8%	-5.5%	46	+0.55	4.43	196	87
Matt Marsh R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	24	SW	4.15	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.68	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.47	3.13	143	86

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.