Griff O'Ferrall

SS Chesapeake Baysox
Age 24 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs AA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
ETA2030MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421A+/A2 orgs90.250/.352/.2760250—.214/.296/.227
202522AA/A+2 orgs516.228/.324/.30444439—.188/.255/.248
202623AABAL482.222/.312/.31273251—.203/.271/.278
2027PROJMLE24MLBBAL4.205/.270/.2770054-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB25MLBBAL60.209/.276/.2941260-0.0
2029PROJ35% MLB26MLBBAL107.213/.279/.3052364-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$0.4M2033Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
Whiff%86
Z-Con%81
K%68
Speed63
BB%48
Chase%42
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 1.4, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 92%
CompsJayce Easley (age 24) · Hunter Jones (age 24) · Connor Kokx (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†54
AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .270 / .277
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%7
BABIP268
ISO73
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -11.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-11BATRUN: +1.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2031Arb-1$3M———
2032Arb-2$0.4M———
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-2M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202421 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 2120 6000 130 11 300333300633 353 145 292 40 — — — — — —
202421 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 6956 13200 9102 13 232358268626 36271 1413 294 53 — — — — — —
202522 AAChesapeake Baysox — 4236 9210 660 21 250357361718 111300 1414 329 93 — — — — — —
202522 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 474411 931424 53714 427 226321299620 73263 1511 286 34 — — — — — —
202623 AAChesapeake Baysox — 482414 921607 491035 325 222312312624 89272 2110 281 51 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202421 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 2120 5000 140 11 250286250536 301 195 228 40 — — — — — —
202421 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 6959 12100 6132 13 203299220519 17239 199 247 53 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 4238 9210 470 21 237310342652 105310 1710 306 93 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 474430 791123 34924 427 184250240490 56218 197 219 34 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 482428 871406 351265 325 203271278549 75254 267 243 51 — — — — — —
202421 A MLE2 teams — 9079 16100 7172 24 203284215499 13250 198 243 50 — — — — — —
202421 A RAW2 teams — 9076 19200 10132 24 250352276629 26292 1411 293 50 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE2 teams — 516467 891333 39994 448 191259251509 60234 198 226 39 — — — — — —
202522 A+ RAW2 teams — 516447 1021634 59774 448 228324304628 76266 1511 289 39 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 482428 871406 351265 325 203271278549 75266 267 243 51 — — — — — —
202623 AA RAWChesapeake Baysox — 482414 921607 491035 325 222312312624 89272 2110 281 51 — — — — — —
202421 A MLE2 teams — 9081 16100 7172 24 198284210494 12253 198 243 50 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE2 teams — 516468 891333 39994 448 190259250509 60225 198 226 39 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 482439 871406 351265 325 198271271542 73254 267 243 51 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A MLE2 teams — 9081 16100 7172 24 198284210494 12253 198 243 50 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE2 teams — 516468 891333 39994 448 190259250509 60225 198 226 39 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 482439 871406 351265 325 198271271542 73254 267 243 51 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLEBAL 2% 380346 701114 28953 153 202268272540 70265 257 248 54 -21 +2 +0 +4 +8 -0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXBAL 2% 44 1000 010 00 205270277548 72268 250 251 54 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLEBAL 23% 260237 49813 19652 92 206273288561 82267 257 257 60 -12 +1 +0 +3 +6 -0.3
202926 MLB MLEBAL 35% 305276 581014 23753 102 209276299575 90268 258 262 64 -13 +1 +0 +3 +7 -0.2
203027 MLB MLEBAL 40% 321290 611015 25793 92 210278302579 92269 258 264 65 -13 +1 +0 +3 +7 -0.2
203128 MLB MLEBAL 44% 328297 621015 25813 82 210278303581 92269 258 264 65 -14 +1 -0 +4 +7 -0.2
203229 MLB MLEBAL 45% 321290 611015 25803 61 210277302580 92269 258 264 65 -13 +1 -1 +3 +7 -0.3
202825 MLB CTXBAL 23% 6055 12201 4151 20 209276294570 85270 257 260 60 -3 +0 +0 +1 +1 -0.0
202926 MLB CTXBAL 35% 10797 20302 8261 31 213279305584 93272 247 266 64 -5 +0 +0 +1 +2 -0.1
203027 MLB CTXBAL 40% 130118 24402 10321 41 213281308589 95272 258 268 65 -5 +0 +0 +1 +3 -0.1
203128 MLB CTXBAL 44% 144131 27502 11361 31 214281309590 96273 258 268 65 -6 +0 -0 +2 +3 -0.1
203229 MLB CTXBAL 45% 143130 27502 11361 31 213280309589 96273 258 268 65 -6 +0 -0 +2 +3 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 584531 1101909 441455 154 207274294568 87265 258 267 56 -25 +1 -0 +6 +13 -0.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650591 12221010 491616 174 206274293567 86264 258 267 56 -28 +2 -0 +7 +14 -0.5
Career— MLE — 28332555 52282933 21367527 12828 204273282555 78261 248 251 56 -78 +6 +0 +19 +38 -1.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650586 1201928 491556 296 205273285558 80262 248 251 56 -29 +2 +0 +7 +14 -0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 482 PAwOBA .279 → .243 (−36)K% 21.4% → 26.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.37%÷1.000×1.220——26.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.17%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0277.31%
HBP% /PA1.04%—×0.850—×1.0270.91%
Singles /BIP22.19%÷1.000×0.970×0.959×1.02721.20%
Doubles /BIP5.14%÷1.000×0.860×0.959×1.0274.36%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.950×0.959×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP2.25%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0271.80%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .279 → .243; ISO .089 → .075; BABIP .272 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 474 PAwOBA .281 → .219 (−62)K% 15.0% → 19.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.98%÷1.013×1.310——19.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.18%÷0.944×0.600—×1.0127.19%
HBP% /PA0.84%—×0.770—×1.0120.66%
Singles /BIP21.47%÷0.990×0.870×0.960×1.01218.31%
Doubles /BIP4.12%÷1.010×0.780×0.960×1.0123.09%
Triples /BIP0.59%÷1.091×0.850×0.960×1.0120.45%
Home runs /BIP1.18%÷1.229×0.880—×1.0120.85%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 118, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .281 → .219; ISO .073 → .055; BABIP .263 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 42 PAwOBA .321 → .306 (−15)K% 14.3% → 16.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.29%÷1.044×1.220——16.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.29%÷0.987×0.700—×1.04210.56%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×1.0420.00%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷0.957×0.970—×1.04221.13%
Doubles /BIP6.67%÷0.970×0.860—×1.0426.16%
Triples /BIP3.33%÷0.900×0.950—×1.0423.67%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.248×0.780—×1.0420.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .321 → .306; ISO .111 → .115; BABIP .300 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 69 PAwOBA .296 → .247 (−49)K% 14.5% → 19.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.49%÷1.035×1.360——19.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.04%÷0.997×0.690—×1.0159.17%
HBP% /PA2.90%—×0.780—×1.0152.29%
Singles /BIP23.91%÷0.988×0.920×0.974×1.01522.00%
Doubles /BIP4.35%÷1.216×0.830×0.974×1.0152.93%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.943×0.910×0.974×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.952×0.800—×1.0150.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 143, 3B 89, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .296 → .247; ISO .036 → .025; BABIP .271 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 21 PAwOBA .284 → .228 (−56)K% 14.3% → 18.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.29%÷0.993×1.310——18.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.76%÷0.947×0.600—×1.0273.10%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.770—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP35.29%÷1.048×0.870—×1.02730.09%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.980×0.780—×1.0270.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.850—×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.026×0.880—×1.0270.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .284 → .228; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .353 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).