Chandler Welch

P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ACarolina Mudc…	1	1	2	0.00	-0.50	50.0%	0.0%	—	K 50.0% · BB 0.0% · FIP -1.12
2025	22	MIX2 levels	12	12	54	5.87	5.17	15.6%	14.8%	—	K 11.7% · BB 17.2% · FIP 5.69
2026	23	MIX2 levels	27	2	66	6.11	4.52	21.4%	13.2%	—	K 18.1% · BB 14.7% · FIP 4.95
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIL	39	0	41	5.48	5.48	17.4%	14.8%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIL	25	0	26	5.22	5.13	18.9%	13.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIL	38	0	40	5.08	5.02	19.8%	12.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsOrlando Ortiz-Mayr (age 24) · Victor Santos (age 24) · Cullen Kafka (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.48

FIP5.48

K%17.4%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%2.5%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	1	1	2	6	3	0	0	100%	1.7	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2024	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	1	1	2	6	3	0	0	100%	1.7	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2024	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	1	1	2	6	3	0	0	100%	1.7	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.50	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	54	250	39	37	6	100%	4.5	11.7%	17.2%	-5.5%	2.5%	5.87	5.69	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	54	250	39	37	6	100%	4.5	11.7%	17.2%	-5.5%	2.5%	5.87	5.69	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	54	250	39	37	6	100%	4.5	15.6%	14.8%	0.8%	2.4%	5.87	5.17	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	2	66	304	65	40	8	7%	2.5	18.1%	14.7%	3.3%	2.7%	6.11	4.95	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	2	66	304	65	40	8	7%	2.5	18.1%	14.7%	3.3%	2.7%	6.11	4.95	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	2	66	304	65	40	8	7%	2.5	21.4%	13.2%	8.2%	2.6%	6.11	4.52	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIL	39	0	41	173	30	26	5	0%	1.1	17.4%	14.8%	2.5%	2.9%	5.48	5.48	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIL	58	0	60	255	48	33	7	0%	1.0	18.9%	13.1%	5.8%	2.9%	5.22	5.13	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIL	58	0	60	255	50	33	7	0%	1.0	19.8%	12.8%	7.0%	2.9%	5.08	5.02	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIL	25	0	26	110	21	14	3	0%	1.0	18.9%	13.1%	5.8%	2.9%	5.22	5.13	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIL	38	0	40	169	33	22	5	0%	1.1	19.8%	12.8%	7.0%	2.9%	5.08	5.02	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	66	279	54	36	8	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.9%	6.5%	2.9%	5.14	4.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	109	24	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.9%	6.5%	2.9%	5.14	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		40	15	122	560	87	88	15	38%	3.0	15.6%	15.7%	-0.1%	2.6%	5.92	5.21	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	25	200	921	143	144	24	38%	3.0	15.6%	15.7%	-0.1%	2.6%	5.92	5.21	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chandler Welch (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.48	17.4%	14.8%	2.9%	—	5.07	19.3%	6.4%	121	-0.41	—	—	—
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	82
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	82
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	81
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	80
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	80
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	79
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	79
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	78
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	78
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	78
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	78
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	78
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	77
Corey Avant R 2024 · 4.76 FIP	22	SW	4.76	17.1%	14.9%	2.2%	.394	4.57	19.9%	6.4%	221	-0.19	3.69	292	77
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	77
Austin Vernon R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	24	SW	5.75	22.1%	16.8%	4.3%	.325	3.68	23.3%	10.0%	100	-2.07	3.37	261	77
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	77
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	77
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	76
Heath Slatton R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SW	5.56	17.9%	12.9%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	120	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	18.8%	13.4%	1.12	5.23
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*