Sam Shaw — OGILVIE

Sam ShawOF Vancouver Canadians

Age 21 L/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION142 act + 19 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .263 / .235

PA19

HR0

K%26

BB%11

BABIP301

ISO59

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.4M
2032	Arb-2	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$6M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	40	29	6	2	0	0	10	6	1	0	2	207	425	276	701	69	261	15	25	347	121	+1	-1	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	209	168	37	6	1	2	35	21	3	10	8	220	362	304	666	83	238	10	17	313	98	-0	-1	—	—	+5	0.3
2025	20	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	28	27	3	1	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	111	143	148	291	37	167	32	4	135	-22	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	274	225	57	10	3	7	45	54	3	9	0	253	385	418	802	164	303	20	16	363	131	+10	+2	—	—	+6	1.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	40	33	6	2	0	0	6	9	1	0	2	182	325	242	567	61	209	22	15	247	53	-2	-1	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	209	183	30	4	1	2	21	30	3	10	8	164	261	230	490	66	177	14	10	222	36	-16	-1	—	—	+5	-1.3
2025	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	28	27	2	1	0	0	1	13	0	0	0	74	107	111	218	37	142	46	4	87	-55	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2025	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	274	237	44	8	2	4	33	79	3	9	0	186	293	287	580	101	262	29	12	272	70	-10	+2	—	—	+6	-0.2
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	40	33	6	2	0	0	6	9	1	0	2	182	325	242	567	61	250	22	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	—	40	29	6	2	0	0	10	6	1	0	2	207	425	276	701	69	261	15	25	347	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	209	183	30	4	1	2	21	30	3	10	8	164	261	230	490	66	183	14	10	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	—	209	168	37	6	1	2	35	21	3	10	8	220	362	304	666	83	238	10	17	313	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	302	265	47	9	2	4	33	92	3	9	0	177	276	272	547	94	253	30	11	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	302	252	60	11	3	7	46	63	3	9	0	238	362	389	751	151	290	21	15	341	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	40	33	6	2	0	0	6	9	1	0	2	182	325	242	567	61	209	22	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	209	183	30	4	1	2	21	30	3	10	8	164	261	230	490	66	177	14	10	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	302	263	47	9	2	4	33	92	3	9	0	179	276	274	550	95	251	30	11	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	40	33	6	2	0	0	6	9	1	0	2	182	325	242	567	61	209	22	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	209	183	30	4	1	2	21	30	3	10	8	164	261	230	490	66	177	14	10	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	302	263	47	9	2	4	33	92	3	9	0	179	276	274	550	95	251	30	11	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	TOR	—	142	117	23	5	1	6	21	47	2	4	0	197	329	410	739	214	262	33	15	310	96	-1	+1	+0	-1	+3	0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK RAW	TOR	—	21	15	4	2	0	1	4	5	2	1	0	267	476	600	1.076	333	333	24	19	467	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A RAW	TOR	—	25	20	6	1	1	0	4	7	0	0	0	300	417	450	867	150	462	28	16	372	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A+ RAW	TOR	—	96	71	17	3	0	6	24	21	0	3	0	239	432	535	967	296	244	22	25	420	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	A+ MLE	TOR	0%	19	17	3	1	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	176	263	235	498	59	299	26	11	309	95	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
TOT	21	A+ MLE	TOR	—	161	134	26	6	1	6	23	52	2	4	0	194	321	388	709	194	260	32	14	310	96	-1	+1	-0	-1	+3	0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TOR	43%	350	304	69	14	2	8	39	92	4	6	1	227	323	365	688	138	297	26	11	313	98	-1	+1	-2	-2	+8	0.4
2028	23	MLB MLE	TOR	61%	426	372	87	18	2	11	47	109	4	8	1	234	326	382	708	148	297	26	11	318	101	+1	+1	-2	-3	+9	0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	TOR	66%	477	417	98	20	3	12	52	120	5	9	2	235	327	384	711	149	298	25	11	321	103	+2	+1	-2	-3	+10	0.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	TOR	69%	504	439	105	21	3	14	55	126	5	9	2	239	331	396	727	157	298	25	11	322	104	+3	+1	-2	-3	+11	0.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	TOR	70%	519	451	108	22	3	14	57	129	6	9	2	239	333	395	727	155	297	25	11	323	105	+3	+1	-2	-3	+11	1.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	TOR	69%	524	455	108	22	3	14	58	131	6	9	2	237	331	391	723	154	297	25	11	323	105	+3	+1	-2	-3	+11	1.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	TOR	68%	523	454	108	22	3	14	58	132	6	9	2	238	332	392	724	154	297	25	11	322	104	+2	+1	-3	-3	+11	0.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	TOR	67%	515	447	105	21	3	14	58	131	5	8	1	235	329	389	719	154	296	25	11	320	103	+2	+1	-4	-3	+11	0.7
2035	30	MLB MLE	TOR	66%	505	438	101	20	2	13	57	129	5	7	1	231	326	374	700	144	295	26	11	317	101	+1	+1	-4	-3	+11	0.5
2036	31	MLB MLE	TOR	65%	492	429	97	19	2	12	55	127	5	6	1	226	321	364	685	138	293	26	11	313	98	-1	+1	-5	-3	+11	0.2
2037	32	MLB MLE	TOR	65%	474	413	92	18	2	11	53	125	5	5	1	223	318	356	674	133	289	26	11	308	94	-3	+1	-6	-3	+10	-0.1
2038	33	MLB MLE	TOR	70%	445	388	84	16	2	10	50	119	4	4	1	216	312	345	658	129	285	27	11	301	90	-5	+0	-6	-3	+10	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	TOR	43%	152	132	31	6	1	4	17	40	2	3	1	235	331	386	717	152	299	26	11	307	98	-0	+0	-1	-1	+3	0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	TOR	61%	260	226	54	11	2	7	29	66	3	5	1	239	333	398	732	159	299	25	11	311	101	+0	+1	-1	-2	+6	0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	TOR	66%	316	275	65	13	2	8	35	79	3	6	1	236	329	385	715	149	299	25	11	314	103	+1	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.6
2030	25	MLB CTX	TOR	69%	346	301	71	14	2	9	38	86	4	6	1	236	329	385	715	150	299	25	11	315	104	+2	+1	-2	-2	+7	0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	TOR	70%	362	315	75	15	2	10	40	90	4	6	1	238	331	394	725	156	299	25	11	316	105	+2	+1	-2	-2	+8	0.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	TOR	69%	361	314	75	15	2	10	40	90	4	6	1	239	332	395	727	156	299	25	11	316	105	+2	+1	-2	-2	+8	0.7
2033	28	MLB CTX	TOR	68%	358	311	74	15	2	10	40	90	4	6	1	238	332	395	728	158	298	25	11	315	104	+2	+1	-2	-2	+8	0.6
2034	29	MLB CTX	TOR	67%	344	298	70	14	2	9	39	87	4	5	1	235	331	386	717	151	297	25	11	313	103	+1	+1	-3	-2	+7	0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	TOR	66%	332	289	67	13	2	9	37	85	3	5	1	232	325	384	709	152	296	26	11	311	101	+0	+1	-3	-2	+7	0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	TOR	65%	320	278	65	13	2	8	36	83	3	4	1	234	328	381	709	147	294	26	11	307	98	-1	+0	-3	-2	+7	0.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	TOR	65%	307	267	60	12	1	7	34	81	3	3	1	225	319	356	675	131	291	26	11	301	94	-2	+0	-4	-2	+7	-0.1
2038	33	MLB CTX	TOR	70%	312	271	59	11	1	7	35	84	3	3	0	218	314	343	657	125	286	27	11	295	90	-4	+1	-4	-2	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3770	3277	766	152	21	98	420	961	40	58	11	234	328	383	711	149	298	25	11	310	96	+4	+7	-27	-23	+82	4.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	565	132	26	4	17	72	166	7	10	2	234	328	384	712	150	298	26	11	310	96	+1	+1	-5	-4	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	6324	5505	1248	249	33	153	701	1606	67	108	27	227	321	367	689	141	290	25	11	310	96	+5	+11	-42	-35	+125	6.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	566	129	26	3	16	72	165	7	11	3	228	322	369	692	141	291	25	11	310	96	+1	+1	-5	-4	+14	0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Marwin Gonzalezlast yr '22 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,882 PA	5.8	3,882	107	44	252	310	399	-10	+17	10.9	10.9
/162	664	18	8	-1.6	+2.8	1.9	pk7: 11
#2Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	5.3	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
/162	664	13	8	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#3Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#4Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.7	3,772	97	58	233	323	381	-23	+0	8.9	7.9
/162	664	17	10	-4.0	+0.0	1.6	pk7: 7
#5Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sam Shaw (OGILVIE)	21	35→60	25→30	40	50	223/320/358	134	299	6	6	27%	11%	95	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Noah Mendlinger 2022 · A	21	49→59	39→40	44→45	52	230/311/322	91	292	5	6	22%	9%	82	+0.0	244/332/321	77	296	4	8	17%	9%	91	+0.6	271/353/338	68	317	2	8	14%	8%	100	+1.0
●Justin Yurchak 2019 · A	22	49→59	39→40	41→40	51	235/301/320	85	287	6	2	20%	9%	78	-0.3	249/308/353	104	317	9	3	23%	8%	88	+0.5	278/341/383	104	343	10	2	20%	8%	105	+1.0
✕Greg Garcia 2011 · A	21	46→55	40	44→50	43	222/277/317	96	274	7	8	22%	5%	69	-0.9	239/314/332	93	303	5	9	21%	8%	86	+0.3	240/350/332	92	308	6	3	21%	13%	98	+0.6
✕Noe Becerra 2008 · AAA	21	48	40→30	46→40	50	228/295/325	96	276	7	8	19%	8%	77	-0.3	210/273/290	80	268	7	8	23%	8%	61	-1.5	227/282/264	38	279	1	1	18%	7%	56	-0.5
●J.P. Crawford 2015 · A	20	52→58	41→45	46→50	51	249/316/346	97	301	9	15	20%	9%	90	+0.6	231/301/326	95	276	7	10	18%	9%	79	-0.2	261/353/385	124	305	11	2	17%	11%	110	+2.2
✕Richi Sanchez 2015 · A	21	49	38→45	49→50	53	229/311/311	82	291	5	8	22%	10%	80	-0.1	212/272/290	78	279	3	7	23%	7%	60	-1.6	202/252/280	79	255	0	6	20%	6%	47	-0.6
●Niuman Romero 2006 · A	21	46→56	37→40	43→50	46	218/283/297	79	293	4	7	26%	7%	66	-1.1	218/281/281	63	285	3	7	23%	8%	61	-1.5	281/339/367	87	328	5	9	15%	8%	100	+1.2
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	45→50	41→45	46→55	51	216/301/314	97	294	9	7	28%	10%	77	-0.3	232/302/345	113	325	10	11	29%	9%	84	+0.2	233/308/347	114	330	9	15	29%	10%	84	+0.1
✕John Drennen 2008 · A	21	45→55	43→45	42→45	43	220/278/329	109	283	11	6	26%	6%	72	-0.7	224/273/324	100	276	7	4	21%	5%	68	-1.0	243/293/365	122	288	8	1	18%	6%	83	+0.1
✕Marcus Lemon 2009 · A	21	50→53	40	45	47	240/301/340	100	298	6	9	21%	7%	82	+0.0	239/283/316	77	294	3	8	19%	5%	70	-0.9	235/284/324	88	297	4	6	21%	6%	68	-0.5
●Tony Kemp 2014 · A	22	47→57	39→45	49→55	51	224/303/309	85	284	7	11	22%	9%	77	-0.3	267/334/359	92	315	5	23	16%	8%	99	+1.2	274/341/361	87	323	4	25	15%	8%	99	+1.1
✕Carlos Vidal 2017 · A	21	48	43→45	49→50	48	234/302/348	114	288	10	12	22%	7%	85	+0.2	231/279/321	90	301	5	7	24%	6%	70	-0.9	236/282/326	90	306	4	6	23%	5%	69	-0.5
✕Alek Thomas 2021 · A	21	50→54	42→50	48→50	43	238/291/351	112	318	9	10	27%	6%	81	-0.1	246/300/391	145	306	13	11	23%	6%	94	+0.9	245/298/391	146	296	14	11	21%	6%	91	+0.6
●Gavin Lux 2019 · AA	21	48→58	43→50	50	46	235/291/350	115	299	10	12	24%	7%	81	-0.1	251/311/404	153	316	16	9	25%	8%	101	+1.4	265/334/414	149	332	14	8	23%	9%	109	+1.7
✕Chase Fontaine 2007 · A	21	48→52	40	46→45	48	227/300/317	90	309	7	6	27%	9%	78	-0.3	227/296/309	82	325	5	6	29%	9%	74	-0.6	228/298/308	81	325	4	5	29%	9%	72	-0.4
●Jake Elmore 2009 · A	22	45→55	40	45→55	45	217/280/320	103	285	6	10	25%	7%	70	-0.8	235/305/309	74	287	3	14	18%	8%	77	-0.3	264/336/337	72	315	2	23	15%	9%	93	+0.7
●TJ Rumfield 2022 · A	22	48→58	37→45	48→45	57	226/323/299	73	277	5	6	19%	11%	82	+0.0	225/296/344	119	284	12	8	24%	8%	82	+0.0	254/330/375	121	301	12	3	19%	9%	100	+1.2
✕Josh Alley 2006 · A	22	50	38→40	44→50	58	235/325/309	75	284	6	9	19%	11%	85	+0.2	227/312/309	82	279	5	10	18%	11%	80	-0.1	233/321/317	84	282	4	11	17%	11%	83	+0.0
●TJ Friedl 2017 · A	21	48→54	42→50	51→55	42	229/286/340	110	309	8	11	27%	6%	77	-0.3	227/295/326	99	297	6	15	24%	7%	78	-0.3	249/340/389	140	279	15	18	16%	10%	106	+1.6
●Josh Thole 2008 · A	21	49→59	34→40	41→45	50	229/295/281	52	284	2	4	19%	8%	67	-1.1	267/327/356	89	309	4	5	14%	8%	96	+1.0	283/345/381	98	319	4	4	12%	8%	107	+1.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps