Sam Shaw
OF Vancouver Canadians| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKTOR | 209 | .220/.362/.304 | 2 | 10 | 37 | — | .164/.261/.230 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+/ATOR | 302 | .238/.362/.389 | 7 | 9 | 59 | — | .189/.282/.291 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/A/ROKTOR | 142 | .255/.436/.528 | 7 | 4 | 108 | — | .198/.336/.405 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBTOR | 256 | .242/.338/.386 | 6 | 5 | 107 | 0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBTOR | 46 | .245/.340/.394 | 1 | 1 | 109 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBTOR | 96 | .247/.341/.398 | 2 | 2 | 110 | 0.3 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | — | 40 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 207 | 425 | 276 | 701 | 69 | 261 | 15 | 25 | 347 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | — | 209 | 168 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 220 | 362 | 304 | 666 | 83 | 238 | 10 | 17 | 313 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 28 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 143 | 148 | 291 | 37 | 167 | 32 | 4 | 135 | -46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 274 | 225 | 57 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 45 | 54 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 253 | 385 | 418 | 802 | 164 | 303 | 20 | 16 | 363 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 96 | 71 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 239 | 432 | 535 | 967 | 296 | 244 | 22 | 25 | 420 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 25 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 417 | 450 | 867 | 150 | 462 | 28 | 16 | 372 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | — | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 476 | 600 | 1.076 | 333 | 333 | 24 | 19 | 467 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 40 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 182 | 325 | 242 | 567 | 61 | 214 | 22 | 15 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 209 | 183 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 30 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 164 | 261 | 230 | 490 | 66 | 179 | 14 | 10 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 28 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 143 | 148 | 291 | 37 | 157 | 46 | 4 | 100 | -46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 274 | 239 | 47 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 76 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 197 | 297 | 305 | 602 | 109 | 264 | 28 | 11 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 96 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 179 | 326 | 397 | 724 | 218 | 213 | 29 | 18 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 25 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 375 | 429 | 804 | 143 | 423 | 40 | 12 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 21 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 176 | 333 | 412 | 745 | 235 | 241 | 33 | 10 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 40 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 182 | 325 | 242 | 567 | 61 | 250 | 22 | 15 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Blue Jays | — | 40 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 207 | 425 | 276 | 701 | 69 | 261 | 15 | 25 | 347 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 209 | 183 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 30 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 164 | 261 | 230 | 490 | 66 | 183 | 14 | 10 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Blue Jays | — | 209 | 168 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 220 | 362 | 304 | 666 | 83 | 238 | 10 | 17 | 313 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 302 | 267 | 49 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 89 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 184 | 276 | 281 | 557 | 97 | 257 | 29 | 10 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 302 | 252 | 60 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 46 | 63 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 238 | 362 | 389 | 751 | 151 | 290 | 21 | 15 | 341 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 142 | 115 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 209 | 350 | 426 | 776 | 217 | 277 | 32 | 16 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 142 | 106 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 33 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 255 | 436 | 528 | 964 | 274 | 299 | 23 | 23 | 419 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 40 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 182 | 325 | 242 | 567 | 61 | 214 | 22 | 15 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 209 | 183 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 30 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 164 | 261 | 230 | 490 | 66 | 179 | 14 | 10 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 302 | 265 | 49 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 89 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 185 | 276 | 283 | 559 | 98 | 254 | 29 | 10 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 142 | 116 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 207 | 350 | 422 | 772 | 216 | 254 | 32 | 16 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 209 | 183 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 30 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 164 | 261 | 230 | 490 | 66 | 179 | 14 | 10 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 302 | 265 | 49 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 89 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 185 | 276 | 283 | 559 | 98 | 254 | 29 | 10 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 142 | 116 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 207 | 350 | 422 | 772 | 216 | 254 | 32 | 16 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | TOR | 0% | 256 | 222 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 65 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 242 | 338 | 386 | 724 | 144 | 311 | 25 | 12 | 326 | 107 | +2 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +6 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | TOR | 35% | 133 | 116 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 244 | 340 | 393 | 732 | 148 | 310 | 25 | 11 | 329 | 109 | +1 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | TOR | 46% | 208 | 180 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 51 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 246 | 340 | 397 | 737 | 151 | 310 | 25 | 12 | 331 | 110 | +2 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +5 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | TOR | 52% | 272 | 237 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 66 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 246 | 340 | 399 | 739 | 153 | 309 | 24 | 11 | 331 | 110 | +3 | +1 | -0 | -2 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | TOR | 54% | 320 | 278 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 78 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 246 | 339 | 399 | 738 | 153 | 308 | 24 | 11 | 331 | 110 | +4 | +1 | -0 | -2 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | TOR | 54% | 344 | 299 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 84 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 245 | 337 | 397 | 734 | 152 | 307 | 24 | 11 | 329 | 109 | +4 | +1 | -0 | -2 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | TOR | 54% | 352 | 307 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 86 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 243 | 335 | 392 | 727 | 149 | 306 | 24 | 11 | 326 | 107 | +3 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +8 | 0.8 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | TOR | 53% | 349 | 304 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 87 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 241 | 332 | 386 | 718 | 145 | 304 | 25 | 11 | 322 | 104 | +2 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +8 | 0.6 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | TOR | 52% | 342 | 298 | 71 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 86 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 237 | 329 | 378 | 706 | 140 | 303 | 25 | 11 | 318 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB MLE | TOR | 52% | 328 | 287 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 84 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 233 | 324 | 367 | 691 | 134 | 300 | 26 | 11 | 312 | 97 | -1 | +0 | -3 | -2 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB MLE | TOR | 52% | 306 | 268 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 80 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 318 | 354 | 672 | 127 | 295 | 26 | 11 | 304 | 92 | -3 | +0 | -4 | -2 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | TOR | 35% | 46 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 340 | 394 | 734 | 149 | 312 | 24 | 11 | 329 | 109 | +0 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | TOR | 46% | 96 | 84 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 247 | 341 | 398 | 739 | 152 | 311 | 25 | 11 | 331 | 110 | +1 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | TOR | 52% | 141 | 123 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 247 | 341 | 400 | 741 | 153 | 311 | 24 | 11 | 332 | 110 | +2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +3 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | TOR | 54% | 174 | 150 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 247 | 340 | 401 | 740 | 154 | 309 | 24 | 11 | 331 | 110 | +2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | TOR | 54% | 187 | 162 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 46 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 246 | 338 | 398 | 736 | 152 | 308 | 25 | 11 | 330 | 109 | +2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | TOR | 54% | 191 | 166 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 47 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 244 | 336 | 393 | 729 | 149 | 307 | 25 | 11 | 327 | 107 | +2 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | TOR | 53% | 185 | 160 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 241 | 333 | 387 | 720 | 145 | 306 | 25 | 11 | 323 | 104 | +1 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | TOR | 52% | 179 | 156 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 238 | 329 | 379 | 708 | 140 | 304 | 25 | 11 | 319 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB CTX | TOR | 52% | 171 | 149 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 234 | 325 | 368 | 693 | 134 | 301 | 26 | 11 | 313 | 97 | -1 | +0 | -2 | -1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB CTX | TOR | 52% | 158 | 139 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 41 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 318 | 355 | 674 | 127 | 297 | 26 | 11 | 305 | 92 | -2 | +0 | -2 | -1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1528 | 1330 | 322 | 62 | 9 | 38 | 171 | 380 | 13 | 20 | 4 | 242 | 334 | 388 | 722 | 146 | 309 | 25 | 11 | 323 | 97 | +8 | +2 | -7 | -9 | +33 | 2.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 566 | 137 | 26 | 4 | 16 | 73 | 162 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 242 | 335 | 387 | 722 | 145 | 309 | 25 | 11 | 323 | 97 | +3 | +1 | -3 | -4 | +14 | 1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3733 | 3247 | 748 | 143 | 22 | 88 | 421 | 930 | 34 | 61 | 17 | 230 | 325 | 369 | 694 | 139 | 293 | 25 | 11 | 311 | 97 | +16 | +5 | -15 | -18 | +66 | 5.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 565 | 130 | 25 | 4 | 15 | 73 | 162 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 230 | 325 | 368 | 693 | 138 | 293 | 25 | 11 | 311 | 97 | +3 | +1 | -3 | -4 | +14 | 1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 96 PAwOBA .414 → .336 (−79)K% 21.9% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.88% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 29.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 18.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.973 | ×1.027 | 14.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.973 | ×1.027 | 4.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.973 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 10.23% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .414 → .336; ISO .296 → .252; BABIP .244 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 25 PAwOBA .364 → .303 (−61)K% 28.0% → 38.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 11.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 28.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 6.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 7.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .364 → .303; ISO .150 → .131; BABIP .462 → .423. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 21 PAwOBA .456 → .319 (−137)K% 23.8% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 34.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 11.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 9.52% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 6.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 8.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 14.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 7.68% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .456 → .319; ISO .333 → .247; BABIP .333 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 274 PAwOBA .354 → .272 (−82)K% 19.7% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.71% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.06% | ÷1.015 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 11.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.64% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | ×0.960 | ×1.030 | 19.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.85% | ÷1.047 | ×0.830 | ×0.960 | ×1.030 | 4.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.960 | ×1.030 | 1.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.09% | ÷1.284 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.63% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 101, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .354 → .272; ISO .164 → .117; BABIP .303 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 28 PAwOBA .132 → .100 (−32)K% 32.1% → 45.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.14% | ÷0.958 | ×1.350 | — | — | 45.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.57% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 2.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.022 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.042 | 10.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.898 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.042 | 5.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.939 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.855 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 104, 2B 80, 3B 88, K 92, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .132 → .100; ISO .037 → .029; BABIP .167 → .157. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 209 PAwOBA .309 → .223 (−86)K% 10.0% → 14.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.05% | ÷1.009 | ×1.440 | — | — | 14.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.75% | ÷1.042 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 10.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.44% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷1.016 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 14.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.08% | ÷1.012 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 2.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.36% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.16% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .309 → .223; ISO .083 → .066; BABIP .238 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 40 PAwOBA .341 → .251 (−89)K% 15.0% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.00% | ÷1.006 | ×1.440 | — | — | 21.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 15.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.39% | ÷0.968 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.022 | 15.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.008 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 6.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.042 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 94, 2B 102, 3B 108, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .341 → .251; ISO .069 → .053; BABIP .261 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).