Sam ShawOF Vancouver Canadians
Age 21 L/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
2026 ROS PROJECTION142 act + 153 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†92
AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .316 / .346
PA153
HR3
K%27
BB%11
BABIP292
ISO128
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -2.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +1.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.7 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: -1.8 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +8.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+8REPTotal WAR: +0.50+0.5WAR
0.00.91.80.00.50.91.11.21.21.31.1+$44M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 30
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT60
scouting grade only
POWER30
scouting grade only
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED40
scouting grade only
DEFENSE50
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.9$3M+$2M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.1$7M+$6M
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.2$7M+$7M
2031Arb-1$2M+1.2$7M+$5M
2032Arb-2$4M+1.3$7M+$4M
2033Arb-3$5M+1.1$5M+$3M
Totals $15M $36M +$27M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202318 ROKFCL Blue Jays — 4033 6200 691 02 182325242567 61250 2215 249 49 — — — — — —
202318 ROKFCL Blue Jays — 4029 6200 1061 02 207425276701 69261 1525 347 124 — — — — — —
202419 ROKFCL Blue Jays — 209184 30412 20303 108 163256228484 65182 1410 219 26 — — — — — —
202419 ROKFCL Blue Jays — 209168 37612 35213 108 220362304666 83238 1017 313 98 — — — — — —
202520 A2 teams — 302265 46834 33963 90 174272272544 98253 3211 246 46 — — — — — —
202520 A2 teams — 302252 601137 46633 90 238362389751 151290 2115 341 119 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD21 A+TOR — 142117 23516 21472 40 197329410739 214262 3315 310 95 -1 +1 +0 -1 +4 0.3
YTD21 A+TOR — 142106 27617 32332 40 255436528964 274299 2323 419 179 +13 +1 +0 -1 +4 1.7
ROS21 A+TOR 0% 153133 29613 17422 31 218316346662 128299 2711 306 92 -1 +0 -1 -1 +4 0.2
ROS21 MLBTOR 0% 11 0000 000 00 301 00 299 87 -0 +0 -0 -0 +0 0.0
FULL21 A+TOR — 143118 23516 21472 40 195326407733 212258 3315 310 95 -1 +1 -0 -1 +4 0.3
TOT21 A+TOR — 295250 521129 38894 71 208322376698 168279 3013 308 94 -2 +1 -1 -2 +8 0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202722 MLBTOR 35% 350305 691428 38924 61 226320364684 138297 2611 310 96 -2 +1 -2 -2 +10 0.5
202823 MLBTOR 49% 426373 8618210 461104 81 231322370691 139297 2611 315 99 -0 +1 -2 -3 +12 0.9
202924 MLBTOR 53% 477417 9820312 521215 92 235327384711 149298 2511 318 102 +1 +1 -2 -3 +14 1.1
203025 MLBTOR 55% 504439 10421313 551275 92 237329387716 150298 2511 320 103 +2 +1 -2 -3 +14 1.2
203126 MLBTOR 56% 519452 10822314 571315 92 239331394725 155298 2511 320 103 +2 +1 -2 -3 +15 1.2
203227 MLBTOR 55% 524455 10822314 581326 92 237331391723 154298 2511 320 103 +2 +1 -2 -3 +15 1.3
203328 MLBTOR 55% 523455 10822314 581335 92 237330391721 154297 2511 319 103 +2 +1 -3 -3 +15 1.1
203429 MLBTOR 53% 515448 10421313 571325 81 232325379705 147296 2611 318 101 +1 +1 -4 -3 +15 1.0
203530 MLBTOR 53% 505439 10220313 561305 71 232326380706 148295 2611 315 99 -0 +1 -4 -3 +14 0.7
203631 MLBTOR 52% 492429 9719212 551295 61 226321364685 138293 2611 311 96 -2 +1 -5 -3 +14 0.5
202722 MLBTOR 35% 121106 25513 13321 20 236325387712 151299 2611 304 91 -1 +0 -1 -1 +3 0.1
202823 MLBTOR 49% 207180 42915 23532 41 233327378705 144299 2611 308 94 -1 +0 -1 -1 +6 0.3
202924 MLBTOR 53% 252220 511026 27643 51 232324377701 145299 2511 311 96 -1 +1 -1 -2 +7 0.4
203025 MLBTOR 55% 276241 571127 30703 51 237328386714 149299 2511 313 98 -1 +1 -1 -2 +8 0.5
203126 MLBTOR 56% 289253 601228 31733 51 237328395723 158299 2511 314 98 -1 +1 -1 -2 +8 0.5
203227 MLBTOR 55% 288251 601228 32733 51 239332398731 159299 2511 314 98 -1 +1 -1 -2 +8 0.5
203328 MLBTOR 55% 286249 591227 32733 51 237331386717 149299 2611 313 97 -1 +1 -2 -2 +8 0.5
203429 MLBTOR 53% 275239 561127 31703 41 234330385715 151298 2511 311 96 -1 +0 -2 -2 +8 0.3
203530 MLBTOR 53% 265230 541117 30683 41 235331383713 148297 2611 308 94 -2 +0 -2 -2 +8 0.2
203631 MLBTOR 52% 256222 501016 29673 31 225323360683 135294 2611 304 91 -3 +0 -3 -2 +7 0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 25162192 5141031664 27864327 429 234328384712 149301 2611 310 96 -12 +5 -15 -15 +71 3.4
/ 162G— — 650566 13427417 721667 112 237330389719 152303 2611 310 96 -3 +1 -4 -4 +18 0.9
Career— — 55394827 109521932132 608141458 10226 227321368688 141291 2611 309 94 -36 +10 -30 -33 +157 6.9
/ 162G— — 650566 12926415 711667 123 228321367689 140293 2611 309 94 -4 +1 -4 -4 +18 0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202318 ROKFCL Blue Jays — 4029 6200 1061 02 207425276701 69261 1525 347 124 +1 -1 — — +1 0.1
202419 ROKFCL Blue Jays — 209168 37612 35213 108 220362304666 83238 1017 313 98 -1 -1 — — +6 0.4
202520 A+Vancouver Canadians — 2827 3100 190 00 111143148291 37167 324 135 -38 -4 +0 — — +1 -0.4
202520 ADunedin Blue Jays — 274225 571037 45543 90 253385418802 164303 2016 363 136 +11 +2 — — +8 2.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15
career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA
83,12781135251317406-20-48.98.7
/1626641729-4.2-0.81.9pk7: 9
#2José Hernándezlast yr '06
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,901 PA
72,9019517254316413-11+58.58.5
/162664224-2.4+1.01.9pk7: 8
#3Desmond Jenningslast yr '16
career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA
62,3275593245323394-9+108.18.1
/1626641627-2.5+2.72.3pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons
52,5166442234323381-15+06.25.6
/1626641711-4.0+0.01.6pk7: 5
#4Emil Brownlast yr '08
career totals — 6 seasons, 2,335 PA
62,3355747263326406-24-85.35.3
/1626641613-6.7-2.21.5pk7: 5
#5Desi Relafordlast yr '05
career totals — 6 seasons, 2,443 PA
62,4433464246329356-1-75.15.1
/162664917-0.3-1.81.4pk7: 5
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16
career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA
62,3474631241304367-5+73.83.8
/162664139-1.3+1.91.1pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Sam Shaw (OGILVIE) 21 35→60 25→30 40 50 208/322/376 168279 97 30% 13% 94 +0.5 ————————— —————————
✕Noah Mendlinger
2022 · A 		21 49→59 39→40 44→45 51 229/306/320 91288 56 21% 9% 78 +0.2 243/331/320 77296 48 18% 9% 89 +0.9 272/355/343713232815%8%101+1.3
✕Greg Garcia
2011 · A 		21 46→54 40 44→50 43 222/277/317 96274 78 22% 5% 65 -0.7 237/310/328 91301 59 21% 8% 82 +0.5 242/351/334923096321%13%98+0.8
●Justin Yurchak
2019 · A 		22 49→59 39→45 41→40 52 232/300/317 85285 62 20% 9% 74 -0.1 250/309/356 106318 93 23% 8% 88 +0.9 283/345/39311035111221%8%110+1.4
●Niuman Romero
2006 · A 		21 46→56 37→40 43→50 46 218/283/297 79293 47 26% 7% 62 -0.9 218/281/281 63285 37 23% 8% 56 -1.3 281/335/372923335916%7%99+1.6
●Tony Kemp
2014 · A 		22 47→57 39→45 49→55 52 222/302/307 85279 711 22% 9% 72 -0.2 267/333/361 94317 523 16% 8% 99 +1.7 274/341/3628832442516%8%99+1.5
✕Noe Becerra
2008 · AAA 		21 48 40→30 46→40 49 228/291/326 98274 78 19% 7% 72 -0.2 210/269/291 81267 78 23% 7% 54 -1.4 222/274/260382732118%6%46-0.6
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba
2019 · A 		20 45→49 41→45 46→55 51 216/301/314 97294 97 28% 10% 74 -0.1 230/299/349 119326 1111 30% 9% 82 +0.5 228/302/349121326101531%9%80+0.2
✕Justin Jacobs
2018 · A 		22 50 38→40 46→50 48 232/305/312 80312 59 25% 8% 75 -0.0 206/270/285 79332 55 36% 7% 53 -1.5 177/242/246693055141%7%29-1.6
✕Richi Sanchez
2015 · A 		21 49 38→45 49→50 53 229/311/311 82291 58 22% 10% 78 +0.2 212/272/290 78279 37 23% 7% 55 -1.4 202/252/280792550620%6%40-0.6
✕Xavier Paul
2006 · A 		21 45→55 43→45 39→55 40 214/275/328 114319 104 34% 7% 66 -0.6 245/294/361 116344 1114 30% 6% 82 +0.5 265/315/384119354101827%6%94+0.8
✕Marcus Lemon
2009 · A 		21 50→53 40 45 47 240/301/340 100298 69 21% 7% 80 +0.4 237/280/314 77294 38 19% 5% 64 -0.8 233/281/325922964622%6%63-0.4
✕Carlos Vidal
2017 · A 		21 48 43→45 49→50 48 234/302/348 114288 1012 22% 7% 83 +0.6 232/278/326 94303 67 24% 5% 66 -0.6 237/281/332953085624%5%65-0.3
●Josh Thole
2008 · A 		21 49→59 34→40 41→45 50 229/295/281 52284 24 19% 8% 63 -0.9 266/327/355 89308 45 14% 8% 95 +1.4 281/343/378973165412%8%106+1.6
✕Josh Alley
2006 · A 		22 50 38→40 44→50 58 235/325/309 75284 69 19% 11% 83 +0.6 227/312/309 82280 510 18% 11% 78 +0.2 232/320/3188628241118%11%80+0.2
✕Chase Fontaine
2007 · A 		21 48→52 40 46→45 48 227/300/317 90309 76 27% 9% 75 -0.0 227/296/309 82325 56 29% 9% 70 -0.3 228/298/308813254529%9%68-0.3
✕Randy Florentino
2021 · A 		21 43 40→50 42→45 47 204/282/302 97297 76 32% 10% 63 -0.8 179/241/260 81267 85 34% 7% 35 -2.8 183/233/258752428427%6%29-0.9
●Jake Elmore
2009 · A 		22 45→55 40 45→55 45 217/280/320 103285 610 25% 7% 66 -0.6 234/305/309 75287 314 18% 9% 74 -0.1 261/334/3347231522316%9%91+0.9
●Gavin Lux
2019 · AA 		21 48→58 43→50 49→50 45 232/285/343 111298 1012 25% 7% 74 -0.1 250/309/409 159317 189 25% 8% 102 +1.8 266/334/42115533315823%9%111+2.1
✕Jose Constanza
2006 · A 		22 47→57 37→40 48→60 51 222/294/293 71286 59 23% 9% 66 -0.6 253/308/324 71326 324 21% 7% 78 +0.2 283/330/3415833113714%6%87+0.7
✕Brent Keys
2011 · A 		21 48→58 35→30 49→50 51 224/291/282 57273 212 18% 8% 61 -1.0 252/311/316 64304 313 17% 7% 78 +0.2 277/340/3325531021210%8%90+0.7