Sam Shaw — OGILVIE

Sam ShawOF Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 21 L/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A HR +12%BB +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.5 · 2032

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .299 / .345

PA295

HR6

SB5

K%26

BB%9

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

35↗60

PWR

25↗30

SPD

40→40

FLD

30↗50

EYE

59↘50

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2031

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.5	$14M	+$13M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+1.3	$13M	+$12M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.1	$11M	+$9M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.9	$5M	+$2M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.7	$4M	+$0.8M
Totals		$11M		$60M	+$49M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	40	33	6	2	0	0	6	9	1	0	2	.182	.325	.242	.567	.061	.250	22	15	.248	48	-2	-1	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
2024	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	209	183	29	4	0	2	21	30	3	10	8	.158	.256	.213	.469	.055	.176	14	10	.219	26	-18	-1	+0	-1	+6	-1.4
2025	20	A	2 teams	302	265	49	9	3	5	33	92	3	9	0	.185	.282	.298	.581	.113	.260	30	11	.258	55	-15	+2	+0	-2	+9	-0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	TOR	295	263	59	11	2	6	27	78	3	5	1	.224	.304	.350	.654	.125	.289	26	9	.293	82	-6	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	22	MLB 11%	TOR	350	310	72	14	2	8	33	88	4	6	1	.232	.314	.368	.682	.135	.292	25	9	.306	92	-3	+1	-2	-2	+10	0.4
2028	23	MLB 28%	TOR	426	378	89	17	2	11	41	103	4	7	2	.235	.317	.378	.695	.143	.293	24	10	.314	98	-1	+1	-2	-3	+12	0.8
2029	24	MLB 45%	TOR	477	422	101	19	3	13	47	113	5	7	2	.239	.323	.391	.714	.152	.294	24	10	.319	103	+1	+1	-2	-3	+14	1.1
2030	25	MLB 60%	TOR	504	443	107	20	3	14	51	118	5	7	1	.242	.327	.395	.722	.153	.295	23	10	.323	105	+3	+1	-2	-3	+14	1.3
2031	26	MLB 77%	TOR	519	455	111	21	3	15	53	121	6	7	1	.244	.331	.402	.733	.158	.296	23	10	.325	107	+4	+1	-2	-3	+15	1.4
2032	27	MLB 92%	TOR	524	459	112	21	3	15	54	123	6	7	1	.244	.331	.401	.732	.157	.296	23	10	.325	107	+4	+1	-2	-3	+15	1.5
2033	28	MLB	TOR	523	457	112	21	3	15	55	124	6	6	1	.245	.334	.403	.737	.158	.296	24	11	.324	106	+4	+1	-3	-3	+15	1.3
2034	29	MLB	TOR	515	451	108	20	3	14	54	123	5	6	1	.239	.327	.390	.718	.151	.296	24	10	.322	105	+3	+1	-4	-3	+15	1.1
2035	30	MLB	TOR	505	442	106	19	3	14	53	123	5	5	0	.240	.328	.391	.719	.152	.295	24	10	.319	102	+1	+1	-4	-3	+14	0.9
2036	31	MLB	TOR	492	432	101	19	2	13	52	122	5	4	0	.234	.323	.377	.700	.144	.294	25	11	.316	100	-0	+1	-5	-3	+14	0.7
2037	32	MLB	TOR	474	416	97	18	2	12	50	120	5	4	0	.233	.323	.373	.695	.139	.293	25	11	.311	96	-2	+1	-6	-3	+13	0.4
2038	33	MLB	TOR	445	392	89	16	2	11	46	115	4	3	0	.227	.314	.362	.677	.135	.292	26	10	.306	92	-4	+1	-6	-3	+13	0.0
2039	34	MLB	TOR	399	351	78	14	2	9	41	107	4	3	0	.222	.311	.350	.661	.128	.291	27	10	.300	88	-6	+1	-7	-2	+11	-0.3
2040	35	MLB	TOR	346	305	67	12	2	7	35	96	3	3	0	.220	.306	.341	.647	.121	.290	28	10	.293	82	-7	+1	-7	-2	+10	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7345	6457	1493	277	40	184	752	1805	77	99	21	.231	.319	.372	.691	.141	.291	25	10	.309	95	-43	+11	-57	-44	+208	7.7
/ 162G	—			650	571	133	25	4	16	67	160	7	9	2	.233	.321	.375	.696	.142	.294	25	10	.309	95	-4	+1	-5	-4	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	40	29	6	2	0	0	10	6	1	0	2	.207	.425	.276	.701	.069	.261	15	25	.347	124	+1	-1	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	209	168	37	6	1	2	35	21	3	10	8	.220	.362	.304	.666	.083	.238	10	17	.313	98	-1	-1	—	—	+6	0.4
2025	20	A+	Vancouver Canadians	28	27	3	1	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	.111	.143	.148	.291	.037	.167	32	4	.135	-38	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	274	225	57	10	3	7	45	54	3	9	0	.253	.385	.418	.802	.164	.303	20	16	.363	136	+11	+2	—	—	+8	2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sam Shaw (OGILVIE)	21	35→60	25→30	40	50	.221/.299/.345	.124	.289	6	5	26%	9%	82	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Noah Mendlinger 2022 · A	21	48→58	39→40	45	51	.228/.304/.321	.093	.288	5	7	22%	9%	77	+0.1	.241/.330/.319	.078	.292	4	8	17%	9%	89	+0.9	.264/.349/.334	.069	.312	2	8	14%	8%	97	+1.1
✕Greg Garcia 2011 · A	21	46→53	40	45→50	43	.222/.277/.317	.095	.275	7	8	22%	5%	65	-0.7	.237/.310/.330	.093	.300	5	9	21%	8%	82	+0.5	.241/.350/.334	.093	.308	6	3	21%	13%	99	+0.8
✕John Drennen 2008 · A	21	44→54	43→45	42→45	43	.217/.275/.328	.111	.279	11	6	26%	6%	67	-0.5	.223/.273/.323	.100	.277	8	4	21%	5%	64	-0.8	.244/.295/.365	.121	.292	9	1	19%	6%	81	+0.3
●Justin Yurchak 2019 · A	22	49→59	39→40	42→40	50	.231/.294/.318	.087	.281	6	3	20%	8%	72	-0.2	.245/.303/.347	.102	.308	9	3	22%	7%	83	+0.6	.273/.337/.381	.107	.337	11	2	21%	8%	103	+1.1
●Tony Kemp 2014 · A	22	47→57	40→45	49→55	52	.226/.304/.314	.088	.282	7	10	22%	9%	76	+0.0	.265/.332/.360	.095	.313	6	23	16%	8%	98	+1.6	.272/.339/.360	.088	.321	4	25	15%	8%	98	+1.4
●Bryan Byrne 2006 · A	22	44→54	40→45	42→40	47	.211/.284/.303	.092	.289	6	5	28%	9%	64	-0.8	.247/.319/.354	.107	.308	10	3	21%	9%	92	+1.2	.263/.336/.377	.114	.318	11	2	20%	9%	102	+1.7
●Gavin Lux 2019 · AA	21	48→58	43→50	50	46	.233/.290/.345	.112	.296	10	12	24%	7%	76	+0.1	.249/.309/.402	.153	.314	17	10	25%	8%	100	+1.7	.260/.330/.404	.144	.327	14	8	23%	9%	106	+1.8
●Erik Komatsu 2010 · A	22	45→55	44→45	44→50	45	.224/.281/.340	.116	.267	11	6	21%	6%	72	-0.2	.255/.319/.357	.102	.300	7	15	16%	8%	92	+1.2	.262/.330/.361	.098	.303	7	17	15%	8%	95	+1.0
●Eric Sogard 2008 · A	22	45→55	43→45	46→55	44	.223/.272/.327	.104	.270	11	9	22%	6%	65	-0.7	.250/.310/.356	.106	.283	8	10	14%	8%	88	+0.9	.255/.340/.377	.121	.290	11	10	15%	11%	103	+1.2
✕Noe Becerra 2008 · AAA	21	47	41→30	46→40	48	.228/.290/.329	.101	.275	8	9	20%	7%	73	-0.1	.209/.269/.288	.079	.267	7	8	23%	7%	53	-1.5	.224/.278/.263	.039	.276	2	1	18%	6%	48	-0.5
●Niuman Romero 2006 · A	21	46→56	38→40	44→50	45	.218/.283/.297	.079	.293	4	7	26%	7%	62	-0.9	.213/.272/.275	.062	.278	3	7	23%	7%	51	-1.7	.286/.344/.376	.090	.337	5	9	16%	8%	104	+1.9
✕Xavier Paul 2006 · A	21	45→55	43→50	40→55	40	.214/.276/.328	.113	.320	10	5	34%	7%	67	-0.5	.242/.291/.359	.117	.342	11	13	31%	6%	81	+0.4	.264/.314/.384	.120	.352	10	18	27%	6%	94	+0.8
✕Randy Florentino 2021 · A	21	43	41→50	42→45	48	.206/.286/.310	.104	.297	8	6	31%	10%	67	-0.5	.180/.241/.263	.083	.269	8	5	34%	7%	36	-2.7	.183/.230/.260	.077	.238	8	4	26%	5%	28	-1.0
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	45→47	41→45	46→55	51	.216/.301/.314	.097	.294	9	7	28%	10%	74	-0.1	.227/.294/.343	.116	.313	11	10	29%	8%	79	+0.3	.228/.299/.352	.124	.336	11	21	33%	9%	80	+0.2
●Stephen Parker 2010 · A	22	44→53	41→45	41→40	42	.216/.267/.316	.099	.285	9	5	27%	6%	59	-1.1	.239/.300/.366	.127	.307	12	3	25%	8%	87	+0.8	.238/.300/.361	.123	.308	12	3	25%	7%	84	+0.6
✕Cornelius Randolph 2018 · A	21	45→47	41→40	45	43	.213/.281/.315	.102	.301	8	7	30%	8%	66	-0.6	.214/.275/.306	.092	.302	8	7	30%	7%	61	-1.0	.207/.268/.296	.089	.292	9	8	30%	7%	52	-0.9
✕Yusniel Díaz 2018 · AA	21	46→52	43→45	40→50	41	.227/.274/.335	.108	.302	11	8	28%	6%	67	-0.5	.232/.293/.362	.130	.301	13	8	26%	8%	82	+0.5	.205/.272/.325	.121	.274	14	9	29%	8%	63	-0.4
●Nick Dunn 2019 · A	22	43→53	39→45	47→40	40	.208/.263/.294	.086	.271	7	8	26%	5%	53	-1.5	.205/.250/.287	.082	.254	6	5	21%	5%	45	-2.1	.263/.330/.370	.108	.289	9	3	12%	8%	97	+1.2
●Jake Elmore 2009 · A	22	46→56	40	45→55	45	.217/.280/.319	.102	.286	6	10	25%	7%	66	-0.6	.232/.303/.309	.077	.283	4	13	18%	9%	73	-0.1	.266/.337/.349	.083	.314	3	23	15%	9%	95	+1.0
●Tyler Nevin 2018 · A	21	46→54	41→50	45	43	.225/.276/.329	.104	.286	8	9	24%	6%	67	-0.5	.231/.283/.339	.108	.294	10	6	24%	6%	72	-0.2	.240/.318/.386	.146	.290	17	4	22%	8%	98	+1.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)