Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 20 | 19 | 99 | 432 | 96 | 41 | 13 | 95% | 5.0 | 17.1% | 10.9% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 5.89 | 5.24 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 20 | 19 | 99 | 432 | 96 | 41 | 13 | 95% | 5.0 | 22.2% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 5.89 | 4.11 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 16 | 8 | 61 | 281 | 51 | 37 | 5 | 50% | 3.8 | 14.0% | 15.1% | -1.2% | 2.2% | 4.26 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 70 | 293 | 48 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.3% | 11.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.39 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.3% | 11.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.39 | 5.39 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 131 | 574 | 99 | 72 | 15 | — | — | 17.2% | 12.5% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 4.86 | 5.23 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.3% | 11.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.39 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 70 | 297 | 52 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 6.4 | 17.6% | 11.1% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 5.22 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 70 | 297 | 54 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 5.12 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 69 | 293 | 54 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 5.09 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 67 | 284 | 52 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 22 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.6% | 11.1% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 5.22 | 5.18 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 36 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 5.12 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 42 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 5.09 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 57 | 241 | 44 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 31 | 188 | 792 | 145 | 87 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 4.75 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 93 | 28 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.3% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 36 | 27 | 161 | 713 | 113 | 90 | 24 | 75% | 4.5 | 15.9% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.27 | 5.17 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 34 | 200 | 888 | 141 | 112 | 29 | 75% | 4.5 | 15.9% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.27 | 5.17 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John West (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.39 | 16.3% | 11.8% | 3.3% | — | 5.12 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 210 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 88 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 87 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 85 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 85 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 83 |
| Nick Belzer R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.55 | 12.8% | 4.2% | 63 | +0.32 | 4.23 | 112 | 83 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 82 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 82 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 82 |
| Matt Ager R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 82 |
| Trenton Toplikar R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 14.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .248 | 5.60 | 16.5% | 6.4% | 123 | +1.30 | 4.30 | 232 | 82 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 81 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 81 |
| Baron Stuart R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .266 | 4.16 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 187 | -1.00 | 3.55 | 287 | 80 |
| Matt Solter R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.60 | 16.0% | 11.0% | 2.7% | .309 | 3.94 | 16.9% | 4.3% | 66 | -0.66 | 3.94 | 224 | 80 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 80 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 80 |
| Matthew DeRosier R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 15.1% | 9.1% | 4.6% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 200 | 80 |
| Casey Steward R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.79 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 191 | 80 |
| Enmanuel Pinales R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.64 | 321 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 69 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 1.26 | 5.19 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |