Jacob Zibin — OGILVIE

Jacob Zibin P Lake County Captains

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 218 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.4 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.12

FIP6.12

K%11.6%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%-4.8%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD2525

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	19	19	60	263	44	31	4	100%	3.1	12.4%	13.9%	-1.5%	1.7%	3.62	4.73	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	19	19	60	263	44	31	4	100%	3.1	12.4%	13.9%	-1.5%	1.7%	3.62	4.73	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	19	19	60	263	44	31	4	100%	3.1	16.7%	11.8%	4.9%	1.5%	3.62	4.06	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	23	23	100	422	116	41	14	100%	4.3	20.8%	11.3%	9.4%	4.2%	3.70	5.11	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	23	23	100	422	116	41	14	100%	4.3	20.8%	11.3%	9.4%	4.2%	3.70	5.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	CLE	12	12	44	198	57	20	8	100%	3.7	28.8%	10.1%	18.7%	4.0%	5.11	4.17	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	CLE	11	11	56	224	59	21	6	100%	5.1	26.3%	9.4%	17.0%	2.7%	2.59	3.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	102	433	63	63	12	100%	5.4	14.5%	14.5%	0.0%	2.8%	5.74	5.62	-0.8
2028	23	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	106	449	73	60	12	100%	5.6	16.3%	13.3%	2.9%	2.8%	5.44	5.31	-0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	109	460	80	58	13	100%	5.7	17.4%	12.7%	4.7%	2.7%	5.23	5.12	-0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	110	466	84	58	13	100%	5.8	18.0%	12.4%	5.6%	2.7%	5.10	5.03	-0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	110	466	85	58	13	100%	6.1	18.2%	12.3%	5.8%	2.7%	5.04	5.01	-0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	109	459	83	57	13	100%	6.0	18.2%	12.4%	5.8%	2.8%	5.04	5.04	-0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	105	445	80	56	13	100%	5.9	18.0%	12.6%	5.5%	2.9%	5.09	5.13	-0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	101	425	76	54	13	100%	5.9	17.8%	12.8%	5.0%	3.0%	5.19	5.26	-0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	95	400	70	52	13	100%	5.9	17.4%	13.1%	4.4%	3.2%	5.34	5.44	-0.6
2027	22	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	51	215	31	31	6	100%	5.7	14.5%	14.5%	0.0%	2.8%	5.74	5.62	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	78	329	54	44	9	100%	5.6	16.3%	13.3%	2.9%	2.7%	5.44	5.31	-0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	90	380	66	48	10	100%	5.6	17.4%	12.7%	4.7%	2.7%	5.23	5.12	-0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	CLE	17	17	98	414	74	51	11	100%	5.8	18.0%	12.4%	5.6%	2.7%	5.10	5.03	-0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	CLE	17	17	101	426	77	53	12	100%	5.9	18.2%	12.3%	5.8%	2.7%	5.04	5.01	-0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	CLE	17	17	101	426	77	53	12	100%	5.9	18.2%	12.4%	5.8%	2.8%	5.04	5.04	-0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	99	418	75	53	12	100%	6.2	18.0%	12.6%	5.5%	2.9%	5.09	5.13	-0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	96	405	72	52	12	100%	6.0	17.8%	12.8%	5.0%	3.0%	5.19	5.26	-0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	90	380	66	50	12	100%	6.0	17.4%	13.1%	4.4%	3.2%	5.34	5.44	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		138	138	802	3387	593	433	96	100%	5.8	17.5%	12.8%	4.7%	2.8%	5.21	4.80	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	148	108	24	100%	5.8	17.5%	12.8%	4.7%	2.8%	5.21	4.80	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		42	42	159	685	120	84	22	100%	3.8	17.5%	12.3%	5.2%	3.3%	3.67	4.96	-3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	53	200	860	151	106	28	100%	3.8	17.5%	12.3%	5.2%	3.3%	3.67	4.96	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Zibin (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.12	11.6%	16.3%	2.8%	—	5.34	16.1%	2.6%	318	-0.78	—	—	—
Donal Montas R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	21	SP	5.66	8.4%	13.3%	2.9%	.268	4.87	10.2%	-4.0%	78	-0.79	4.10	156	87
Jefry Rodriguez R 2015 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	9.9%	14.6%	2.0%	.286	4.07	16.6%	5.2%	333	-1.13	3.30	578	86
Ofreidy Gómez R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP	5.17	12.8%	14.5%	2.4%	.266	4.86	14.4%	4.0%	401	-0.31	3.58	663	85
Eudry Alcantara R 2023 · 6.03 FIP	18	SP	6.03	11.4%	19.2%	2.7%	.278	6.45	15.3%	-9.0%	71	+0.42	4.83	114	85
Edinxon Arias R 2017 · 7.03 FIP	19	SP	7.03	7.6%	19.9%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	127	81
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	81
Oliver Garcia R 2018 · 6.31 FIP	20	SP	6.31	10.4%	15.7%	3.8%	.315	5.86	16.5%	1.8%	53	-0.45	3.05	233	81
Yoscar Pimentel R 2023 · 5.94 FIP	21	SP	5.94	14.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	136	80
Mason McGwire R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	19	SP	6.54	13.2%	19.6%	3.8%	.374	4.91	18.1%	3.8%	120	-1.63	4.11	155	80
Carlos Guzman R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	21	SP	5.58	14.6%	15.5%	3.2%	.225	4.86	16.4%	5.8%	205	-0.72	2.61	469	79
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	79
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	79
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	79
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	79
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	78
Osiris Ramirez R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	21	SP	5.47	12.6%	19.4%	1.8%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	104	78
Matt Hartman R 2018 · 7.13 FIP	22	SP	7.13	8.2%	18.9%	4.2%	.217	3.95	12.1%	0.4%	89	-3.18	3.95	105	78
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	78
Luis Ramos R 2019 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP	5.12	9.3%	19.4%	0.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	102	78
Jhon De Jesus R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	20	SP	5.60	14.5%	13.8%	3.6%	.311	5.45	11.6%	1.8%	96	-0.15	3.63	280	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	99	17.1%	13.0%	1.10	5.28
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36