Carlos Guzman — OGILVIE

Carlos Guzman P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%22.5%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	19	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	14	0	26	99	25	6	0	0%	1.8	17.2%	7.6%	9.6%	0.0%	0.70	2.61	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	14	0	26	99	25	6	0	0%	1.8	25.3%	6.1%	19.2%	0.0%	0.70	1.85	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2018	20	A+ RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2019	21	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	7	7	33	137	27	18	3	100%	4.7	14.6%	15.5%	-0.9%	3.2%	2.73	5.58	—
2019	21	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	7	7	33	137	27	18	3	100%	4.7	19.7%	13.1%	6.6%	2.2%	2.73	4.28	—
2021	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	22	99	445	102	46	9	96%	4.3	17.0%	12.2%	4.8%	2.8%	4.65	4.75	—
2021	23	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	22	99	445	102	46	9	96%	4.3	22.9%	10.3%	12.6%	2.0%	4.65	3.62	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	107	437	90	34	11	85%	4.0	15.8%	9.0%	6.8%	3.7%	4.11	4.96	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	107	437	90	34	11	85%	4.0	20.6%	7.8%	12.8%	2.5%	4.11	3.71	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	1	87	380	93	48	9	2%	2.2	19.8%	14.1%	5.7%	2.6%	4.67	4.66	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	1	87	380	93	48	9	2%	2.2	19.8%	14.1%	5.7%	2.6%	4.67	4.66	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	1	87	380	93	48	9	2%	2.2	24.5%	12.6%	11.8%	2.4%	4.67	3.97	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	49	207	51	26	7	0%	1.4	21.5%	9.7%	11.8%	5.5%	3.88	5.52	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	49	207	51	26	7	0%	1.4	21.5%	9.7%	11.8%	5.5%	3.88	5.52	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	49	207	51	26	7	0%	1.4	24.6%	12.6%	12.1%	3.4%	3.88	4.48	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	49	200	56	18	5	0%	1.2	23.5%	9.1%	14.4%	2.9%	3.12	3.85	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	49	200	56	18	5	0%	1.2	23.5%	9.1%	14.4%	2.9%	3.12	3.85	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	49	200	56	18	5	0%	1.2	28.0%	9.0%	19.0%	2.5%	3.12	3.24	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	45	0	58	247	74	27	7	0%	1.3	25.4%	12.0%	13.3%	1.8%	4.06	3.46	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	45	0	58	247	74	27	7	0%	1.3	25.4%	12.0%	13.3%	1.8%	4.06	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	NYM	40	0	48	201	63	22	3	0%	1.2	31.3%	10.9%	20.4%	1.5%	3.17	2.66	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	NYM	5	0	9	46	11	5	4	0%	1.9	23.9%	10.9%	13.0%	8.7%	8.68	7.23	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	NYM	24	0	25	106	24	11	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	3.3%	4.63	4.69	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	NYM	8	0	8	34	8	3	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	3.3%	4.63	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	33	7	3	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	3.3%	4.63	4.30	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	76	25	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	3.3%	4.63	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		232	53	508	2155	413	244	65	23%	2.2	19.2%	11.3%	7.8%	3.0%	3.92	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	21	200	849	163	96	25	23%	2.2	19.2%	11.3%	7.8%	3.0%	3.92	4.57	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Guzman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	22.5%	10.1%	3.1%	—	4.69	22.3%	12.1%	25	+0.11	—	—	—
Danny Farquhar R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	28	SU	3.85	22.4%	6.8%	3.2%	.324	3.84	22.0%	12.8%	135	-0.01	3.62	224	79
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	78
Taylor Cole R 2018 · 3.70 FIP	28	SU	3.70	25.4%	10.4%	2.6%	.291	3.49	22.0%	13.9%	72	-0.21	3.49	433	77
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	76
Trevor Cahill R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	28	SU	4.22	23.2%	11.8%	2.9%	.274	4.60	21.1%	11.2%	310	+0.38	3.37	556	76
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	75
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	74
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	74
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	74
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	73
Brad Brach R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	29	SU	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.13	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.09	2.69	410	73
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	72
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	72
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	72
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	72
Burch Smith R 2018 · 5.11 FIP	28	SU	5.11	21.5%	10.6%	4.5%	.329	4.02	20.5%	9.9%	157	-1.09	3.50	382	71
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.79 FIP	27	SU	4.79	22.6%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.21	3.73	223	71
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	71
Murphy Smith R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	19.3%	9.3%	1.6%	.245	4.43	13.6%	6.8%	145	+0.89	3.16	300	71
Andrew Kittredge R 2018 · 3.66 FIP	28	SU	3.66	21.6%	6.6%	2.8%	.336	2.70	28.9%	24.6%	159	-0.96	2.47	688	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	22.4%	10.1%	1.24	4.60
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64