Carlos Guzman
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Age 28
RHP
6'1" / 210 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 26 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
K%22.9%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | 14 | 0 | 26 | 99 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 17.2% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% | 0.70 | 2.61 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | 14 | 0 | 26 | 99 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 25.3% | 6.1% | 19.2% | 0.0% | 0.70 | 1.85 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -2.53 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.90 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 7 | 7 | 33 | 137 | 27 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 14.6% | 15.5% | -0.9% | 3.6% | 2.73 | 5.81 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 7 | 7 | 33 | 137 | 27 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.7% | 13.1% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 2.73 | 4.28 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 23 | 22 | 99 | 445 | 102 | 46 | 9 | 96% | 4.3 | 17.0% | 12.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.86 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 23 | 22 | 99 | 445 | 102 | 46 | 9 | 96% | 4.3 | 22.9% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 2.0% | 4.65 | 3.62 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 23 | 107 | 437 | 90 | 34 | 11 | 85% | 4.0 | 15.8% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.11 | 5.42 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 23 | 107 | 437 | 90 | 34 | 11 | 85% | 4.0 | 20.6% | 7.8% | 12.8% | 2.5% | 4.11 | 3.71 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 1 | 87 | 380 | 93 | 48 | 9 | 2% | 2.2 | 19.8% | 14.1% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 4.67 | 4.56 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 1 | 87 | 380 | 93 | 48 | 9 | 2% | 2.2 | 24.5% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 4.67 | 3.97 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 51 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 6.8% | 3.88 | 6.26 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 51 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 3.88 | 4.48 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 49 | 200 | 56 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 3.12 | 3.86 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 49 | 200 | 56 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.0% | 9.0% | 19.0% | 2.5% | 3.12 | 3.24 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 26 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 15.8% | 2.2% | 4.38 | 3.45 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | NYM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 63 | 268 | 74 | 28 | 10 | — | — | 27.7% | 10.4% | 17.4% | 3.6% | 4.45 | 3.91 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.9% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.17 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.27 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 95 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.27 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 213 | 53 | 487 | 2065 | 394 | 233 | 71 | 25% | 2.3 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 3.94 | 4.80 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 22 | 200 | 848 | 162 | 96 | 29 | 25% | 2.3 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 3.94 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Guzman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.66 | 22.7% | 12.8% | 25 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 78 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 3.81 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.03 | 3.57 | 224 | 77 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 77 |
| Taylor Cole R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.77 | 25.4% | 10.4% | 2.7% | .291 | 3.46 | 22.0% | 13.9% | 72 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 433 | 76 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.63 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 556 | 75 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 75 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 74 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 523 | 74 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 73 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 472 | 72 |
| Matt Andriese R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 22.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.62 | 24.7% | 17.5% | 151 | -0.61 | 3.10 | 744 | 72 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 4.5% | .329 | 3.99 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 157 | -1.10 | 3.39 | 382 | 72 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 71 |
| Andrew Kittredge R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.70 | 21.6% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .336 | 2.71 | 28.9% | 24.6% | 159 | -0.99 | 2.47 | 667 | 70 |
| Austin Pruitt R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.32 | 19.3% | 5.1% | 2.2% | .279 | 4.14 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 113 | +0.82 | 2.95 | 819 | 70 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.18 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .307 | 6.22 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.04 | 2.75 | 299 | 70 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.42 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 2.5% | .321 | 5.26 | 19.4% | 11.6% | 146 | +1.84 | 3.14 | 406 | 70 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2029 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 70 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 70 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 8.4% | 3.4% | .275 | 3.73 | 22.1% | 12.1% | 103 | -0.47 | 2.59 | 309 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 1.28 | 4.58 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |