Francisco Pazos

P ACL Mariners

Age 21 RHP 5'9" / 200 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1286ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKSEA	12	10	52	4.18	2.65	26.9%	6.7%	—	K 18.3% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.18
2026	20	ROKSEA	6	4	20	1.80	2.85	23.4%	7.8%	—	K 15.9% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.99
2027PROJ	21	MLBSEA	—	—	0	4.82	4.82	17.2%	9.2%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBSEA	4	4	21	4.62	4.55	18.8%	8.7%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBSEA	5	5	31	4.48	4.40	19.9%	8.4%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJonathan Petit (age 21) · Dustin McGowan (age 23) · Saul Gonzalez (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%17.2%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	8	6	18	82	13	6	0	75%	2.2	10.8%	9.1%	1.6%	0.0%	7.13	3.35	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	8	6	18	82	13	6	0	75%	2.2	15.9%	7.3%	8.5%	0.0%	7.13	2.65	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	13	0	33	147	20	13	2	0%	2.5	9.3%	11.1%	-1.8%	2.2%	4.09	4.93	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	13	0	33	147	20	13	2	0%	2.5	9.3%	11.1%	-1.8%	2.2%	4.09	4.93	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	13	0	33	147	20	13	2	0%	2.5	13.6%	8.8%	4.8%	1.4%	4.09	3.86	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	10	52	223	60	15	4	83%	4.3	18.3%	8.4%	9.9%	2.8%	4.18	4.18	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	10	52	223	60	15	4	83%	4.3	18.3%	8.4%	9.9%	2.8%	4.18	4.18	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	12	10	52	223	60	15	4	83%	4.3	26.9%	6.7%	20.2%	1.8%	4.18	2.65	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	6	4	20	77	18	6	1	67%	3.3	15.9%	9.7%	6.2%	1.8%	1.80	3.99	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	6	4	20	77	18	6	1	67%	3.3	15.9%	9.7%	6.2%	1.8%	1.80	3.99	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	6	4	20	77	18	6	1	67%	3.3	23.4%	7.8%	15.6%	1.3%	1.80	2.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.2%	9.2%	8.0%	3.0%	4.82	4.82	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SEA	7	7	42	178	33	15	5	100%	6.0	18.8%	8.7%	10.1%	2.9%	4.66	4.59	+0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	SEA	7	7	42	178	35	15	5	100%	6.0	19.9%	8.4%	11.5%	2.9%	4.52	4.44	+0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	SEA	7	7	42	178	37	15	5	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.2%	12.4%	2.8%	4.41	4.34	+0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	SEA	7	7	40	167	35	13	5	100%	5.6	21.0%	8.1%	13.0%	2.8%	4.33	4.28	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	SEA	7	7	40	168	36	13	5	100%	5.7	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	2.8%	4.29	4.26	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	SEA	6	6	39	164	35	13	5	100%	6.5	21.2%	8.1%	13.1%	2.9%	4.30	4.30	+0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	SEA	4	4	21	89	17	8	3	100%	5.2	18.8%	8.7%	10.1%	2.8%	4.62	4.55	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	SEA	5	5	31	131	26	11	4	100%	6.2	19.9%	8.4%	11.5%	2.8%	4.48	4.40	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	35	148	30	12	4	100%	5.8	20.6%	8.2%	12.4%	2.8%	4.37	4.30	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	35	148	31	12	4	100%	5.8	21.0%	8.1%	13.0%	2.8%	4.29	4.24	+0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	36	152	32	12	4	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	2.8%	4.25	4.22	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	36	152	32	12	4	100%	6.0	21.2%	8.1%	13.1%	2.8%	4.26	4.26	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		32	32	194	817	168	67	23	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.2%	12.4%	2.8%	4.36	3.93	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	174	69	24	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.2%	12.4%	2.8%	4.36	3.93	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		39	20	122	529	75	50	11	51%	3.1	14.3%	9.5%	4.8%	2.1%	4.19	4.23	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	33	200	865	123	82	18	51%	3.1	14.3%	9.5%	4.8%	2.1%	4.19	4.23	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Mariners · 20 IPFIP 2.83 → 3.99 (+1.16)K% 23.4% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.38%	—	×0.680	15.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.79%	—	×1.250	9.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.82%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.83 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Mariners · 52 IPFIP 2.66 → 4.18 (+1.51)K% 26.9% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.91%	—	×0.680	18.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.73%	—	×1.250	8.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.886	×1.400	2.84%

Result: FIP 2.66 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Mariners · 33 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.93 (+1.11)K% 13.6% → 9.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.61%	—	×0.680	9.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.84%	—	×1.250	11.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.36%	÷0.863	×1.400	2.21%

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Mariners · 18 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.35 (+0.66)K% 15.9% → 10.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.85%	—	×0.680	10.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.250	9.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.034	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francisco Pazos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	17.2%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.46	19.7%	11.3%	127	-0.36	—	—	—
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	89
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	88
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	88
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	87
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	86
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	85
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	85
Kyle Weatherly R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	21	SP-	3.78	14.2%	7.1%	1.8%	.307	4.37	13.3%	1.6%	169	+0.59	3.78	207	84
Adolfo Oviedo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	19	SP-	3.74	17.2%	8.1%	1.9%	.272	4.90	12.6%	5.2%	124	+1.16	3.74	235	83
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2019 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP-	4.48	17.6%	7.9%	3.4%	.343	6.27	19.2%	11.3%	197	+1.79	3.27	243	83
Roger Rodriguez R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	20	SP-	5.15	16.4%	9.6%	4.0%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	128	83
Shane Davis R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP-	5.21	17.3%	9.8%	4.2%	.313	4.19	20.9%	6.7%	55	-1.02	4.19	129	83
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	82
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	433	82
Connor Mayes R 2017 · 3.68 FIP	21	SP-	3.68	13.4%	6.8%	1.5%	.274	5.29	12.2%	1.4%	62	+1.61	3.68	105	82
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	82
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	82
Wilmer Ortega R 2022 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP-	4.01	18.2%	7.9%	2.6%	.304	5.81	16.1%	1.8%	30	+1.80	3.62	158	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	40	20.0%	8.4%	1.11	4.47
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*