Francisco Pazos — OGILVIE

Francisco Pazos P ACL Mariners

Age 20 RHP 5'9" / 200 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130120vR 111

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%16.4%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	8	6	18	82	13	6	0	75%	2.2	10.8%	9.1%	1.6%	0.0%	7.13	3.35	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	8	6	18	82	13	6	0	75%	2.2	15.9%	7.3%	8.5%	0.0%	7.13	2.65	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	13	0	33	147	20	13	2	0%	2.5	9.3%	11.1%	-1.8%	2.6%	4.09	5.16	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	13	0	33	147	20	13	2	0%	2.5	13.6%	8.8%	4.8%	1.4%	4.09	3.86	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Mariners	12	10	52	223	60	15	4	83%	4.3	18.3%	8.4%	9.9%	3.3%	4.18	4.41	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Mariners	12	10	52	223	60	15	4	83%	4.3	26.9%	6.7%	20.2%	1.8%	4.18	2.65	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	ROK	ACL Mariners	5	3	19	70	17	5	1	60%	3.8	16.5%	8.9%	7.6%	2.0%	1.42	3.93	+0.1
ROS	20	MLB	SEA	5	5	32	133	22	12	4	100%	6.3	16.4%	9.1%	7.2%	3.0%	4.90	4.90	-0.1
ROS	20	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.4%	9.1%	7.2%	2.9%	4.86	4.86	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	SEA	—	—	50	203	39	17	5	—	—	19.1%	8.4%	10.7%	2.5%	3.59	4.54	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	SEA	5	5	33	140	25	12	4	100%	6.6	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.72	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	SEA	6	6	35	147	28	12	4	100%	5.8	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	2.9%	4.61	4.52	+0.0
2029	23	MLB	SEA	6	6	36	152	30	12	4	100%	6.0	19.9%	8.1%	11.8%	2.8%	4.47	4.39	+0.1
2030	24	MLB	SEA	6	6	37	156	32	12	4	100%	6.2	20.6%	7.9%	12.6%	2.8%	4.36	4.29	+0.1
2031	25	MLB	SEA	6	6	38	158	33	12	4	100%	6.2	20.9%	7.8%	13.1%	2.8%	4.29	4.24	+0.1
2032	26	MLB	SEA	6	6	38	158	33	12	4	100%	6.2	21.1%	7.8%	13.4%	2.8%	4.25	4.22	+0.1
2033	27	MLB	SEA	6	6	37	156	33	12	4	100%	6.1	21.1%	7.8%	13.3%	2.9%	4.25	4.25	+0.1
2034	28	MLB	SEA	6	6	36	151	32	12	4	100%	6.0	21.0%	8.0%	13.0%	3.0%	4.30	4.34	+0.1
2027	21	MLB	SEA	3	3	16	68	12	6	2	100%	5.3	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.73	4.68	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	SEA	4	4	25	106	20	9	3	100%	6.2	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	2.8%	4.57	4.48	+0.0
2029	23	MLB	SEA	5	5	30	127	25	10	4	100%	6.0	19.9%	8.1%	11.8%	2.8%	4.43	4.35	+0.1
2030	24	MLB	SEA	5	5	33	139	29	11	4	100%	6.6	20.6%	7.9%	12.6%	2.7%	4.32	4.25	+0.1
2031	25	MLB	SEA	6	6	34	144	30	11	4	100%	5.7	20.9%	7.8%	13.1%	2.7%	4.25	4.20	+0.1
2032	26	MLB	SEA	6	6	35	148	31	11	4	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.8%	13.4%	2.7%	4.21	4.18	+0.2
2033	27	MLB	SEA	6	6	35	148	31	12	4	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.21	4.21	+0.1
2034	28	MLB	SEA	6	6	34	144	30	11	4	100%	5.7	21.0%	8.0%	13.0%	2.9%	4.26	4.30	+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			40	40	243	1028	210	82	29	100%	6.1	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	2.8%	4.34	3.92	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	844	172	67	24	100%	6.1	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	2.8%	4.34	3.92	+3.5
Career	—			38	19	121	522	75	49	13	50%	3.2	14.3%	9.3%	5.0%	2.4%	4.15	4.39	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—			63	31	200	860	123	80	21	50%	3.2	14.3%	9.3%	5.0%	2.4%	4.15	4.39	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francisco Pazos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	16.4%	9.1%	3.0%	—	4.54	18.9%	10.4%	104	-0.36	—	—	—
Henry Valencio R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	88
Roger Rodriguez R 2026 · 5.27 FIP	20	SP-	5.27	16.4%	9.6%	4.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	128	86
Wellington Caceres R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	20	SP-	4.16	13.9%	6.4%	2.6%	.306	5.82	13.1%	2.1%	68	+1.66	4.16	121	86
Adriel Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	20	SP-	4.27	14.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	117	85
Kyle Weatherly R 2027 · 3.78 FIP	21	SP-	3.78	14.2%	7.1%	1.8%	.307	4.39	13.3%	1.6%	169	+0.61	3.78	207	85
Joshua Quezada R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP-	4.34	18.3%	11.7%	2.4%	.293	4.27	19.3%	10.1%	73	-0.07	3.48	153	84
Geno Encina R 2027 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.60	12.0%	2.3%	76	+3.38	4.22	200	84
Alejandro Manzano R 2026 · 5.12 FIP	20	SP-	5.12	14.8%	8.6%	4.0%	.347	4.69	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.43	4.15	269	84
Williander Moreno R 2025 · 4.21 FIP	19	SW	4.21	13.7%	7.5%	2.4%	.302	5.34	20.2%	10.1%	57	+1.13	3.05	246	84
Deretd Parra R 2025 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.80	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.49	2.79	161	84
Luis Florentino R 2025 · 3.74 FIP	19	SP-	3.74	14.5%	8.7%	1.4%	.254	6.15	16.4%	3.8%	60	+2.41	3.74	110	83
Shane Davis R 2027 · 5.14 FIP	21	SP-	5.14	17.3%	9.8%	4.1%	.313	4.08	20.9%	6.7%	55	-1.06	4.08	129	83
Luis Cohen R 2026 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP-	4.14	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.99	13.7%	3.4%	225	+0.85	3.00	310	83
Damian Mendoza R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	20	SP-	4.66	15.0%	10.3%	2.8%	.371	4.50	17.9%	7.7%	178	-0.16	2.73	314	83
Holden Wilkerson R 2028 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP-	4.37	14.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.370	4.86	15.8%	4.8%	63	+0.49	4.37	114	82
Fraynel Nova R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	20	SP-	4.00	16.4%	7.9%	2.3%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.17	3.49	129	82
Yondrei Rojas R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	20	SP-	4.36	14.0%	11.2%	1.9%	.312	4.32	20.8%	9.4%	106	-0.04	2.72	223	82
Tanner Hall R 2028 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	18.8%	11.2%	3.0%	.295	5.39	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.83	4.56	137	82
Nicholas Economos R 2026 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.58	223	82
Noah Skirrow R 2029 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	18.4%	11.5%	2.4%	.306	4.68	16.2%	5.7%	316	+0.34	3.90	371	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	36	19.8%	8.2%	1.11	4.45
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Nick Wittgren ('23)	8	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Luis Cessa ('23)	8	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Tyler Duffey ('22)	8	59	23.0%	6.8%	1.25	4.57