Francisco Pazos — OGILVIE

Francisco Pazos P ACL Mariners

Age 20 RHP 5'9" / 200 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.9 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%16.4%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	8	6	18	82	13	6	0	75%	2.2	10.8%	9.1%	1.6%	0.0%	7.13	3.35	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	8	6	18	82	13	6	0	75%	2.2	10.8%	9.1%	1.6%	0.0%	7.13	3.35	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	8	6	18	82	13	6	0	75%	2.2	15.9%	7.3%	8.5%	0.0%	7.13	2.65	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	13	0	33	147	20	13	2	0%	2.5	9.3%	11.1%	-1.8%	2.2%	4.09	4.93	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	13	0	33	147	20	13	2	0%	2.5	9.3%	11.1%	-1.8%	2.2%	4.09	4.93	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	13	0	33	147	20	13	2	0%	2.5	13.6%	8.8%	4.8%	1.4%	4.09	3.86	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	10	52	223	60	15	4	83%	4.3	18.3%	8.4%	9.9%	2.8%	4.18	4.18	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	10	52	223	60	15	4	83%	4.3	18.3%	8.4%	9.9%	2.8%	4.18	4.18	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	12	10	52	223	60	15	4	83%	4.3	26.9%	6.7%	20.2%	1.8%	4.18	2.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	6	4	20	77	18	6	1	67%	3.3	15.9%	9.7%	6.2%	1.8%	1.80	3.99	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	6	4	20	77	18	6	1	67%	3.3	15.9%	9.7%	6.2%	1.8%	1.80	3.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	SEA	6	4	20	77	18	6	1	67%	3.3	23.4%	7.8%	15.6%	1.3%	1.80	2.83	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	49	206	36	18	6	100%	5.4	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.75	4.70	+0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	51	216	41	18	6	100%	5.7	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	2.9%	4.59	4.50	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	53	224	45	18	6	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.1%	11.8%	2.8%	4.46	4.37	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	54	230	47	18	6	100%	5.4	20.6%	7.9%	12.7%	2.8%	4.35	4.28	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	55	233	49	18	6	100%	6.1	20.9%	7.8%	13.2%	2.8%	4.27	4.22	+0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	55	233	49	18	6	100%	6.1	21.1%	7.7%	13.4%	2.8%	4.23	4.20	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	54	229	48	18	6	100%	6.0	21.1%	7.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.23	4.24	+0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	SEA	4	4	24	101	18	9	3	100%	6.0	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	2.8%	4.71	4.66	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	37	156	30	13	4	100%	6.2	19.0%	8.4%	10.6%	2.8%	4.55	4.46	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	45	190	38	15	5	100%	5.6	19.9%	8.1%	11.8%	2.7%	4.42	4.33	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	48	203	42	16	6	100%	6.0	20.6%	7.9%	12.7%	2.7%	4.31	4.24	+0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	51	215	45	17	6	100%	5.7	20.9%	7.8%	13.2%	2.7%	4.23	4.18	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	51	215	46	17	6	100%	6.4	21.1%	7.7%	13.4%	2.7%	4.19	4.16	+0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	52	220	46	17	6	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.19	4.20	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	308	1301	264	104	36	100%	5.8	20.3%	8.0%	12.3%	2.7%	4.33	3.90	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	171	68	23	100%	5.8	20.3%	8.0%	12.3%	2.7%	4.33	3.90	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		39	20	122	529	75	50	11	51%	3.1	14.3%	9.5%	4.8%	2.1%	4.19	4.23	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	33	200	865	123	82	18	51%	3.1	14.3%	9.5%	4.8%	2.1%	4.19	4.23	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francisco Pazos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	16.4%	9.1%	3.0%	—	4.52	18.9%	10.5%	153	-0.36	—	—	—
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	88
Roger Rodriguez R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	20	SP-	5.15	16.4%	9.6%	4.0%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	128	87
Adriel Gonzalez R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	20	SP-	4.21	14.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	117	85
Alejandro Manzano R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP-	4.89	14.8%	8.6%	3.5%	.347	4.81	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.08	4.28	273	85
Wellington Caceres R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	20	SP-	4.16	13.9%	6.4%	2.6%	.306	5.82	13.1%	2.1%	68	+1.66	4.16	121	85
Kyle Weatherly R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	21	SP-	3.78	14.2%	7.1%	1.8%	.307	4.37	13.3%	1.6%	169	+0.59	3.78	207	85
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	85
Donny Troconis R 2023 · 5.31 FIP	17	SP-	5.31	16.0%	9.4%	4.3%	.293	5.06	14.9%	2.2%	180	-0.25	3.15	224	84
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	84
Williander Moreno R 2018 · 4.21 FIP	19	SW	4.21	13.7%	7.5%	2.4%	.302	5.16	20.2%	10.1%	57	+0.95	3.20	246	84
Damian Mendoza R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	20	SP-	4.69	15.0%	10.3%	2.8%	.371	4.53	17.9%	7.7%	178	-0.16	2.73	314	83
Fraynel Nova R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP-	3.83	16.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.34	3.38	129	83
Luis Florentino R 2019 · 3.74 FIP	19	SP-	3.74	14.5%	8.7%	1.4%	.254	6.16	16.4%	3.8%	60	+2.42	3.74	110	83
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	83
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	83
Yondrei Rojas R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	20	SP-	4.59	14.0%	11.2%	2.3%	.312	4.10	20.9%	10.2%	123	-0.49	2.60	240	83
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	83
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	83
Connor Mayes R 2017 · 3.68 FIP	21	SP-	3.68	13.4%	6.8%	1.5%	.274	5.29	12.2%	1.4%	62	+1.61	3.68	105	83
Xiomer Guacache R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	16.3%	10.5%	2.5%	.255	5.09	13.0%	0.3%	120	+0.67	4.42	186	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	50	19.8%	8.1%	1.10	4.44
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38