Brady Kirtner

P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 180 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	35	47	2.70	2.78	26.5%	10.7%	—	K 19.8% · BB 13.4% · FIP 4.09
2026	24	MIX2 levels	40	42	5.83	4.56	26.7%	15.0%	—	K 21.0% · BB 16.9% · FIP 5.62
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYY	57	60	5.49	5.49	20.4%	16.1%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBNYY	25	26	5.36	5.35	20.9%	15.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBNYY	35	37	5.30	5.31	21.1%	15.0%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control35Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsKevin Kopps (age 25) · Nick Ernst (age 25) · Nolan Riggs (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%20.4%

BB%16.1%

K-BB%4.2%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	47	196	52	21	2	0%	1.3	19.8%	13.4%	6.4%	1.8%	2.70	4.09	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	47	196	52	21	2	0%	1.3	19.8%	13.4%	6.4%	1.8%	2.70	4.09	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	47	196	52	21	2	0%	1.3	26.5%	10.7%	15.8%	1.0%	2.70	2.78	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	42	206	55	31	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	16.9%	4.1%	3.9%	5.83	5.62	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	42	206	55	31	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	16.9%	4.1%	3.9%	5.83	5.62	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	42	206	55	31	6	0%	1.0	26.7%	15.0%	11.7%	2.9%	5.83	4.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYY	57	0	60	253	52	41	8	0%	1.1	20.4%	16.1%	4.2%	3.1%	5.49	5.49	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	57	0	60	251	52	39	8	0%	1.0	20.9%	15.4%	5.5%	3.1%	5.36	5.35	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	56	0	59	247	52	37	8	0%	1.0	21.1%	15.0%	6.0%	3.1%	5.30	5.31	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	25	0	26	110	23	17	3	0%	1.0	20.9%	15.4%	5.5%	3.1%	5.36	5.35	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	35	0	37	156	33	23	5	0%	1.1	21.1%	15.0%	6.0%	3.1%	5.30	5.31	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	264	55	40	8	0%	1.1	21.0%	15.2%	5.8%	3.1%	5.32	4.95	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	128	26	0%	1.1	21.0%	15.2%	5.8%	3.1%	5.32	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		75	0	88	402	82	61	12	0%	1.2	20.4%	15.2%	5.2%	2.9%	4.18	4.88	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		170	0	200	910	185	138	26	0%	1.2	20.4%	15.2%	5.2%	2.9%	4.18	4.88	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brady Kirtner (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	20.4%	16.1%	3.1%	—	5.33	21.0%	5.7%	118	-0.16	—	—	—
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	91
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	89
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	88
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	88
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	87
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	87
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	87
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	87
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.13	18.4%	7.3%	90	-0.76	3.84	164	86
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	86
Holt Jones R 2024 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	19.0%	15.0%	1.8%	.326	4.32	22.4%	8.3%	123	-0.04	4.21	254	85
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	85
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	85
Bryce McGowan R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	24	SU	5.11	19.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.304	3.71	18.8%	6.7%	55	-1.40	3.71	178	85
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	84
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	84
Antonio Knowles R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	20.9%	15.1%	2.4%	.250	3.28	20.9%	11.7%	66	-1.30	3.24	223	84
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	84
Ryan Sublette R 2024 · 5.72 FIP	25	SU	5.72	19.9%	17.5%	3.8%	.214	4.47	18.6%	5.0%	53	-1.25	3.74	203	84
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	20.8%	15.5%	1.19	5.38
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*