Brady Kirtner — OGILVIE

Brady Kirtner P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 180 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%19.9%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	47	196	52	21	2	0%	1.3	19.8%	13.4%	6.4%	1.8%	2.70	4.09	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	47	196	52	21	2	0%	1.3	19.8%	13.4%	6.4%	1.8%	2.70	4.09	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	47	196	52	21	2	0%	1.3	26.5%	10.7%	15.8%	1.0%	2.70	2.78	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	39	0	41	199	54	29	6	0%	1.1	21.0%	16.9%	4.1%	3.9%	5.23	5.62	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	39	0	41	199	54	29	6	0%	1.1	21.0%	16.9%	4.1%	3.9%	5.23	5.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	NYY	38	0	40	191	52	28	6	0%	1.0	27.2%	14.7%	12.6%	3.1%	5.22	4.38	—
2026	24	AA RAW	NYY	1	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.7	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	5.40	2.57	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	NYY	5	0	5	22	4	3	1	0%	1.0	19.9%	13.9%	6.1%	2.9%	5.14	5.14	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	47	221	58	32	7	—	—	26.4%	14.5%	11.9%	3.0%	5.22	5.57	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYY	55	0	58	244	50	31	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	12.5%	8.1%	2.9%	4.96	4.90	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	55	0	58	244	51	30	7	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.2%	8.8%	2.9%	4.87	4.84	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYY	24	0	25	106	22	13	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	12.5%	8.1%	2.9%	4.96	4.90	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	36	0	38	160	34	20	5	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.2%	8.8%	2.9%	4.87	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	56	33	8	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.3%	8.6%	2.9%	4.91	4.48	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	104	25	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.3%	8.6%	2.9%	4.91	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		74	0	88	395	80	60	11	0%	1.2	20.4%	15.1%	5.2%	2.8%	3.89	4.86	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		168	0	200	898	183	136	26	0%	1.2	20.4%	15.1%	5.2%	2.8%	3.89	4.86	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brady Kirtner (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	19.9%	13.9%	2.9%	—	4.87	20.8%	8.5%	116	-0.27	—	—	—
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	94
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	94
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	91
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	91
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	91
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	90
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	90
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	90
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	89
Matt Lollis R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	4.95	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.39	4.56	120	89
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	89
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	89
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	89
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	89
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	89
Morgan McSweeney R 2022 · 5.16 FIP	24	SU	5.16	18.0%	13.9%	3.3%	.278	4.36	16.0%	6.0%	107	-0.80	3.20	213	88
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	88
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	88
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	88
Carlos Contreras R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.46	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.29	107	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	20.5%	12.9%	1.12	4.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91