Shea Sprague

P Greenville Drive

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 195 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	22	9	97	3.82	2.71	22.8%	8.8%	—	K 17.2% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.40
2026	23	MIX2 levels	18	3	58	7.60	6.12	21.2%	11.8%	—	K 16.5% · BB 13.4% · FIP 6.39
2027PROJ	24	MLBBOS	64	0	67	5.59	5.59	15.2%	12.9%	-0.8
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBBOS	36	0	38	5.37	5.32	16.6%	11.8%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBBOS	56	0	59	5.23	5.20	17.4%	11.5%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDoug Davis (age 24) · Braeden Fausnaught (age 24) · Mac Lardner (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 139

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%15.2%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%2.3%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	9	97	400	91	35	3	41%	4.4	17.2%	10.2%	7.0%	0.8%	3.82	3.40	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	9	97	400	91	35	3	41%	4.4	17.2%	10.2%	7.0%	0.8%	3.82	3.40	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	9	97	400	91	35	3	41%	4.4	22.8%	8.8%	14.0%	0.8%	3.82	2.71	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	3	58	288	61	34	15	17%	3.2	16.5%	13.4%	3.1%	5.5%	7.60	6.39	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	3	58	288	61	34	15	17%	3.2	16.5%	13.4%	3.1%	5.5%	7.60	6.39	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	3	58	288	61	34	15	17%	3.2	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	5.2%	7.60	6.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BOS	64	0	67	283	43	37	9	0%	1.0	15.2%	12.9%	2.3%	3.2%	5.59	5.59	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	84	0	88	372	62	44	12	0%	1.0	16.6%	11.8%	4.8%	3.2%	5.37	5.32	-0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	84	0	88	372	65	43	12	0%	1.0	17.4%	11.5%	5.9%	3.2%	5.23	5.20	-0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	83	0	87	366	65	42	12	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.4%	6.3%	3.2%	5.19	5.19	-0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	80	0	84	356	63	41	12	0%	1.1	17.6%	11.4%	6.2%	3.3%	5.22	5.25	-0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	BOS	77	0	80	339	59	40	12	0%	1.0	17.4%	11.7%	5.7%	3.4%	5.32	5.38	-0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	BOS	72	0	76	319	61	36	12	0%	1.0	19.0%	11.2%	7.9%	3.6%	5.30	5.29	-0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	36	0	38	160	27	19	5	0%	1.1	16.6%	11.8%	4.8%	3.2%	5.37	5.32	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	56	0	59	249	43	29	8	0%	1.1	17.4%	11.5%	5.9%	3.2%	5.23	5.20	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	64	0	67	283	50	32	9	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.4%	6.3%	3.2%	5.19	5.19	-0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	68	0	71	300	53	34	10	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.4%	6.2%	3.3%	5.22	5.25	-0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	BOS	67	0	70	296	51	34	10	0%	1.0	17.4%	11.7%	5.7%	3.4%	5.32	5.38	-0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	BOS	65	0	68	287	55	32	10	0%	1.0	19.0%	11.2%	7.9%	3.6%	5.30	5.29	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		355	0	373	1574	278	181	52	0%	1.0	17.7%	11.5%	6.2%	3.3%	5.26	4.89	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	97	28	0%	1.1	17.7%	11.5%	6.2%	3.3%	5.26	4.89	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		40	12	155	688	116	79	19	30%	3.9	16.9%	11.5%	5.4%	2.8%	5.24	4.65	-4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	16	200	890	150	103	25	30%	3.9	16.9%	11.5%	5.4%	2.8%	5.24	4.65	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shea Sprague (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	15.2%	12.9%	3.2%	—	5.24	17.2%	5.7%	263	-0.35	—	—	—
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	84
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	77
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	75
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	75
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	73
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	73
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	72
Jeff Malm L 2015 · 6.46 FIP	24	SW	6.46	12.1%	9.0%	5.9%	.339	3.13	22.0%	14.8%	48	-3.33	3.13	101	71
Kenny Hernandez L 2022 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	15.4%	10.0%	3.4%	.332	3.99	16.5%	5.8%	74	-0.96	3.16	424	71
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	71
Seth Lonsway L 2023 · 5.20 FIP	24	SP-	5.20	13.8%	15.3%	2.4%	.317	4.17	15.5%	4.7%	321	-1.03	3.35	506	71
Matt Perisho L 2000 · 5.59 FIP	25	SW	5.59	14.4%	12.4%	3.9%	.325	4.96	9.3%	1.3%	50	-0.63	4.41	261	70
Matt Walker L 2022 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	17.7%	12.8%	2.4%	.338	4.73	12.7%	2.7%	41	+0.19	4.21	156	70
Mason Green L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	24	SW	5.28	17.9%	16.7%	2.9%	.278	4.24	18.4%	6.3%	265	-1.04	3.68	450	70
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	69
Jared Poche L 2019 · 5.93 FIP	24	SU	5.93	13.4%	15.2%	3.7%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.09	156	69
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	69
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	69
Jake Woods L 2006 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	14.0%	10.1%	2.5%	.297	6.69	10.3%	0.0%	19	+2.09	4.60	152	69
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	81	17.3%	11.7%	1.28	5.31
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83
Dustin Nippert ('10)	1.3	67	17.6%	11.2%	1.18	5.31
Renie Martin ('79-'84, -3 WAR*)	2.5	85	15.7%*	11.6%*	1.29*	4.84*
Les Webber ('42-'48, -1 WAR*)	2.2	86	17.0%*	10.4%*	1.30*	5.13*
Jack O'Connor ('81-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.6	64	18.6%*	11.4%*	1.20*	4.96*
Julio Santana ('06)	2.4	80	14.4%	10.8%	1.32	5.30