Alfredo Romero

P South Bend Cubs

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	15	10	41	8.27	3.78	16.7%	11.4%	—	K 12.5% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.45
2025	22	ACHC	21	13	75	2.89	3.49	20.7%	14.1%	—	K 15.3% · BB 16.6% · FIP 4.40
2026	23	A+CHC	24	14	87	4.97	4.28	20.6%	14.8%	—	K 15.8% · BB 17.0% · FIP 5.18
2027PROJ	24	MLBCHC	—	—	0	6.18	6.18	14.2%	19.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCHC	4	4	25	5.84	5.74	16.0%	16.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCHC	6	6	33	5.65	5.59	17.0%	16.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control25Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJacob Cravey (age 22) · Kyle Larsen (age 21) · Andrew Thurman (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151142vR 134

ERA6.18

FIP6.18

K%14.2%

BB%19.1%

K-BB%-4.9%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	8	3	23	98	24	13	3	38%	2.9	16.7%	16.6%	0.1%	4.6%	3.52	6.31	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	8	3	23	98	24	13	3	38%	2.9	24.5%	13.3%	11.2%	3.1%	3.52	4.40	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	12	11	31	139	32	19	1	92%	2.6	15.7%	17.1%	-1.4%	1.0%	3.77	4.50	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	12	11	31	139	32	19	1	92%	2.6	23.0%	13.7%	9.4%	0.7%	3.77	3.29	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	41	210	35	24	2	67%	2.8	12.5%	12.9%	-0.4%	1.4%	8.27	4.45	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	41	210	35	24	2	67%	2.8	12.5%	12.9%	-0.4%	1.4%	8.27	4.45	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	41	210	35	24	2	67%	2.8	16.7%	11.4%	5.2%	1.0%	8.27	3.78	—
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	13	75	319	66	45	2	62%	3.6	15.3%	16.6%	-1.3%	0.9%	2.89	4.40	—
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	13	75	319	66	45	2	62%	3.6	15.3%	16.6%	-1.3%	0.9%	2.89	4.40	—
2025	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	13	75	319	66	45	2	62%	3.6	20.7%	14.1%	6.6%	0.6%	2.89	3.49	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	24	14	87	379	78	56	7	58%	3.6	15.8%	17.0%	-1.1%	2.3%	4.97	5.18	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	24	14	87	379	78	56	7	58%	3.6	15.8%	17.0%	-1.1%	2.3%	4.97	5.18	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	24	14	87	379	78	56	7	58%	3.6	20.6%	14.8%	5.8%	1.8%	4.97	4.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.2%	19.1%	-4.9%	2.7%	6.18	6.18	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	57	242	39	41	7	100%	5.7	16.0%	16.8%	-0.8%	2.7%	5.84	5.74	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	8	8	50	212	36	34	6	100%	6.3	17.0%	16.2%	0.8%	2.7%	5.65	5.59	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	8	8	47	198	34	32	6	100%	5.9	17.3%	15.9%	1.4%	2.8%	5.57	5.56	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	7	7	44	187	33	30	5	100%	6.3	17.4%	15.9%	1.5%	2.9%	5.59	5.62	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	7	7	42	176	30	28	5	100%	6.0	17.1%	16.1%	1.0%	3.0%	5.68	5.75	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	CHC	6	6	39	163	27	27	5	100%	6.5	16.8%	16.4%	0.4%	3.2%	5.83	5.93	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	4	4	25	106	17	18	3	100%	6.2	16.0%	16.8%	-0.8%	2.7%	5.84	5.74	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	33	139	24	23	4	100%	5.5	17.0%	16.2%	0.8%	2.7%	5.65	5.59	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	36	152	26	24	4	100%	6.0	17.3%	15.9%	1.4%	2.8%	5.57	5.56	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	37	156	27	25	5	100%	6.2	17.4%	15.9%	1.5%	2.9%	5.59	5.62	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	37	156	27	25	5	100%	6.2	17.1%	16.1%	1.0%	3.0%	5.68	5.75	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	35	148	25	24	5	100%	5.8	16.8%	16.4%	0.4%	3.2%	5.83	5.93	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	34	203	857	146	139	25	100%	6.0	17.0%	16.2%	0.8%	2.9%	5.68	5.31	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	144	137	25	100%	6.0	17.0%	16.2%	0.8%	2.9%	5.68	5.31	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		80	51	257	1145	173	184	20	64%	3.2	15.1%	16.1%	-1.0%	1.8%	4.62	4.84	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	40	200	891	135	144	16	64%	3.2	15.1%	16.1%	-1.0%	1.8%	4.62	4.84	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 87 IPFIP 4.25 → 5.18 (+0.93)K% 20.6% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.58%	—	×0.770	15.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.78%	—	×1.150	16.99%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.31%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.25 → 5.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 75 IPFIP 3.48 → 4.40 (+0.92)K% 20.7% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.740	15.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.11%	—	×1.180	16.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.63%	÷0.925	×1.300	0.88%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.48 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 40 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.45 (+0.85)K% 16.8% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.83%	—	×0.740	12.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.89%	—	×1.180	12.85%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷0.908	×1.300	1.42%

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Cubs · 31 IPFIP 3.28 → 4.50 (+1.21)K% 23.0% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.02%	—	×0.680	15.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.67%	—	×1.250	17.09%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.01%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Cubs Blue · 23 IPFIP 4.39 → 6.31 (+1.92)K% 24.5% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.49%	—	×0.680	16.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.27%	—	×1.250	16.58%
HR / BF /BF	3.06%	÷0.935	×1.400	4.58%

Result: FIP 4.39 → 6.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alfredo Romero (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.18	14.2%	19.1%	2.7%	—	5.64	16.7%	0.4%	154	-0.54	—	—	—
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	85
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	84
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	83
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.33	21.4%	7.0%	173	-0.73	4.21	254	81
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	80
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	80
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	78
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	78
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	78
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	77
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	77
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	76
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	75
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	75
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	75
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	75
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	74
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	74
Pedro Garcia R 2024 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	16.1%	16.8%	2.1%	.329	5.81	12.3%	-2.4%	100	+0.77	4.69	247	74
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	50	16.4%	16.8%	1.10	5.79
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*