Alfredo Romero
P
South Bend Cubs
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 175 lbs
A+
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 153143vR 134
ERA5.97
FIP5.97
K%13.7%
BB%17.4%
K-BB%-3.7%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | 8 | 3 | 23 | 98 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 38% | 2.9 | 16.7% | 16.6% | 0.1% | 4.9% | 3.52 | 6.50 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | 8 | 3 | 23 | 98 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 38% | 2.9 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 3.52 | 4.40 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 12 | 11 | 31 | 139 | 32 | 19 | 1 | 92% | 2.6 | 15.7% | 17.1% | -1.4% | 1.0% | 3.77 | 4.50 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 12 | 11 | 31 | 139 | 32 | 19 | 1 | 92% | 2.6 | 23.0% | 13.7% | 9.4% | 0.7% | 3.77 | 3.29 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 10 | 41 | 210 | 35 | 24 | 2 | 67% | 2.8 | 12.5% | 12.9% | -0.4% | 1.6% | 8.27 | 4.54 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 10 | 41 | 210 | 35 | 24 | 2 | 67% | 2.8 | 16.7% | 11.4% | 5.2% | 1.0% | 8.27 | 3.78 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 21 | 13 | 75 | 319 | 66 | 45 | 2 | 62% | 3.6 | 15.3% | 16.6% | -1.3% | 1.0% | 2.89 | 4.44 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 21 | 13 | 75 | 319 | 66 | 45 | 2 | 62% | 3.6 | 20.7% | 14.1% | 6.6% | 0.6% | 2.89 | 3.49 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 16 | 7 | 56 | 242 | 49 | 39 | 5 | 44% | 3.5 | 15.6% | 18.5% | -2.9% | 2.6% | 5.17 | 5.55 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CHC | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 36 | 45 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.7% | 17.4% | -3.7% | 2.6% | 5.97 | 5.97 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.7% | 17.4% | -3.7% | 2.6% | 5.97 | 5.97 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 117 | 502 | 85 | 84 | 12 | — | — | 16.8% | 16.8% | 0.1% | 2.4% | 5.59 | 5.77 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 13.7% | 17.4% | -3.7% | 2.6% | 5.97 | 5.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 42 | 41 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 15.8% | 15.4% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 5.65 | 5.55 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 46 | 38 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.0% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 5.40 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 48 | 38 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.7% | 13.9% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 5.27 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 47 | 37 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.8% | 13.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 5.24 | 5.23 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 46 | 36 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.7% | 14.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.28 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CHC | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 18 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.8% | 15.4% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 5.65 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 30 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.0% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 5.40 | 5.29 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 38 | 30 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 17.7% | 13.9% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 5.27 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 41 | 32 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.8% | 13.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 5.24 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 40 | 32 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.7% | 14.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.28 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 38 | 228 | 965 | 167 | 137 | 26 | 97% | 5.9 | 17.4% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.34 | 4.92 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 146 | 120 | 23 | 99% | 5.9 | 17.4% | 14.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.34 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 72 | 44 | 226 | 1008 | 151 | 165 | 19 | 61% | 3.1 | 15.0% | 16.4% | -1.4% | 1.9% | 4.63 | 4.94 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 39 | 200 | 893 | 134 | 146 | 17 | 61% | 3.1 | 15.0% | 16.4% | -1.4% | 1.9% | 4.63 | 4.94 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alfredo Romero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.97 | 13.7% | 17.4% | 2.6% | — | 5.35 | 16.8% | 2.3% | 191 | -0.62 | — | — | — |
| Drew Conover R 2026 · 6.30 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.30 | 15.6% | 29.8% | 1.4% | .272 | 5.34 | 11.7% | -3.6% | 96 | -0.96 | 4.52 | 135 | 84 |
| Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 82 |
| Wills Montgomerie R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.03 | 19.3% | 19.1% | 2.1% | .275 | 4.55 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 105 | -0.48 | 4.55 | 153 | 82 |
| Ramsey David R 2027 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 81 |
| Ted Stuka R 2027 · 5.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.78 | 12.4% | 23.4% | 1.4% | .262 | 6.34 | 15.9% | -13.1% | 41 | +0.56 | 5.51 | 105 | 79 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 79 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 79 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2027 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 79 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 78 |
| Carlson Reed R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 237 | 78 |
| Dawson Netz R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 77 |
| Jacob Meador R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 77 |
| James McArthur R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.37 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.5% | .304 | 4.20 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 131 | -1.17 | 3.53 | 352 | 77 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 6.06 FIP | 23 | SW | 6.06 | 12.6% | 24.0% | 1.8% | .242 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 144 | 77 |
| Mason Pelio R 2026 · 6.26 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.26 | 13.3% | 17.4% | 3.8% | .255 | 5.74 | 9.0% | -12.8% | 26 | -0.52 | 5.74 | 122 | 77 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 77 |
| Yorman Galindez R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.60 | 15.9% | 17.0% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 176 | 77 |
| Tyler Schlaffer R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.5% | 13.3% | 3.1% | .298 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 154 | -1.01 | 4.01 | 363 | 76 |
| Boone Whiting R 2028 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.21 | 11.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.78 | 10.9% | 4.8% | 132 | -0.43 | 4.78 | 227 | 76 |
| Erling Moreno R 2025 · 6.08 FIP | 22 | SP- | 6.08 | 7.8% | 18.2% | 2.4% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 213 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 63 | 16.6% | 14.8% | 1.04 | 5.47 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |