Alfredo Romero — OGILVIE

Alfredo Romero P South Bend Cubs

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A+ peak 0.7 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION87 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.07

FIP6.07

K%13.7%

BB%18.2%

K-BB%-4.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	8	3	23	98	24	13	3	38%	2.9	16.7%	16.6%	0.1%	4.6%	3.52	6.31	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	8	3	23	98	24	13	3	38%	2.9	24.5%	13.3%	11.2%	3.1%	3.52	4.40	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	12	11	31	139	32	19	1	92%	2.6	15.7%	17.1%	-1.4%	1.0%	3.77	4.50	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	12	11	31	139	32	19	1	92%	2.6	15.7%	17.1%	-1.4%	1.0%	3.77	4.50	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	12	11	31	139	32	19	1	92%	2.6	23.0%	13.7%	9.4%	0.7%	3.77	3.29	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	41	210	35	24	2	67%	2.8	12.5%	12.9%	-0.4%	1.4%	8.27	4.45	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	41	210	35	24	2	67%	2.8	12.5%	12.9%	-0.4%	1.4%	8.27	4.45	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	41	210	35	24	2	67%	2.8	16.7%	11.4%	5.2%	1.0%	8.27	3.78	—
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	13	75	319	66	45	2	62%	3.6	15.3%	16.6%	-1.3%	0.9%	2.89	4.40	—
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	13	75	319	66	45	2	62%	3.6	15.3%	16.6%	-1.3%	0.9%	2.89	4.40	—
2025	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	21	13	75	319	66	45	2	62%	3.6	20.7%	14.1%	6.6%	0.6%	2.89	3.49	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	24	14	87	379	78	56	7	58%	3.6	15.8%	17.0%	-1.1%	2.3%	4.97	5.18	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	24	14	87	379	78	56	7	58%	3.6	15.8%	17.0%	-1.1%	2.3%	4.97	5.18	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	CHC	24	14	87	379	78	56	7	58%	3.6	20.6%	14.8%	5.8%	1.8%	4.97	4.25	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	CHC	1	1	5	22	3	4	1	100%	5.2	13.7%	18.2%	-4.6%	2.6%	6.07	6.07	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	92	401	81	60	8	—	—	20.2%	15.0%	5.2%	1.9%	5.03	5.23	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	87	369	58	59	10	100%	5.5	15.7%	15.9%	-0.2%	2.6%	5.72	5.61	-0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	88	373	63	54	10	100%	5.9	16.9%	14.5%	2.4%	2.6%	5.45	5.34	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	88	373	65	53	10	100%	5.9	17.5%	14.1%	3.4%	2.6%	5.30	5.25	-0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	87	368	65	52	10	100%	5.8	17.6%	14.0%	3.6%	2.7%	5.26	5.26	-0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	84	357	62	51	10	100%	6.0	17.5%	14.2%	3.3%	2.8%	5.31	5.34	-0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	81	341	59	49	10	100%	6.2	17.2%	14.4%	2.8%	3.0%	5.41	5.47	-0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	76	320	60	45	10	100%	5.8	18.9%	13.9%	5.0%	3.2%	5.39	5.38	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	38	160	25	26	4	100%	5.4	15.7%	15.9%	-0.2%	2.6%	5.72	5.61	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	59	249	42	36	7	100%	5.9	16.9%	14.5%	2.4%	2.6%	5.45	5.34	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	70	296	52	42	8	100%	5.8	17.5%	14.1%	3.4%	2.6%	5.30	5.25	-0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	74	312	55	44	8	100%	6.2	17.6%	14.0%	3.6%	2.7%	5.26	5.26	-0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	75	317	55	45	9	100%	6.2	17.5%	14.2%	3.3%	2.8%	5.31	5.34	-0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	73	308	53	44	9	100%	6.1	17.2%	14.4%	2.8%	3.0%	5.41	5.47	-0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	70	296	56	41	9	100%	5.8	18.9%	13.9%	5.0%	3.2%	5.39	5.38	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		77	77	459	1939	338	278	54	100%	6.0	17.4%	14.3%	3.1%	2.8%	5.38	4.98	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	147	121	24	100%	5.9	17.4%	14.3%	3.1%	2.8%	5.38	4.98	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		80	51	257	1145	173	184	20	64%	3.2	15.1%	16.1%	-1.0%	1.8%	4.62	4.84	-3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	40	200	891	135	144	16	64%	3.2	15.1%	16.1%	-1.0%	1.8%	4.62	4.84	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alfredo Romero (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.07	13.7%	18.2%	2.6%	—	5.40	16.7%	1.8%	264	-0.67	—	—	—
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	82
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	81
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	79
Mason Pelio R 2023 · 6.38 FIP	23	SP-	6.38	13.3%	17.4%	4.0%	.255	5.88	9.0%	-12.8%	26	-0.50	5.88	122	79
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	79
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	77
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	77
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	77
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	76
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	76
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	76
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	76
Pedro Garcia R 2018 · 6.06 FIP	23	SW	6.06	12.6%	24.0%	1.8%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	144	75
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	75
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	75
Erling Moreno R 2019 · 6.02 FIP	22	SP-	6.02	7.8%	18.2%	2.3%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	213	75
Michael Petersen R 2017 · 5.81 FIP	23	SP-	5.81	14.8%	17.5%	3.2%	.336	4.34	18.7%	5.9%	122	-1.47	3.20	399	75
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	74
Conor Harber R 2017 · 5.43 FIP	23	SP-	5.43	14.1%	18.0%	2.3%	.278	4.14	15.5%	4.9%	163	-1.29	3.05	333	74
Alex Santos II R 2023 · 6.17 FIP	21	SW	6.17	16.8%	17.5%	4.1%	.335	4.57	24.8%	8.5%	106	-1.60	3.51	313	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	82	16.9%	14.8%	1.07	5.47
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04