J.D. McReynolds — OGILVIE

J.D. McReynolds P Hickory Crawdads

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 32 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%24.1%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	36	0	46	194	70	33	4	0%	1.3	26.7%	20.1%	6.6%	2.7%	3.35	4.86	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	36	0	46	194	70	33	4	0%	1.3	26.7%	20.1%	6.6%	2.7%	3.35	4.86	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	TEX	36	0	46	194	70	33	4	0%	1.3	36.1%	17.0%	19.1%	2.1%	3.35	3.34	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TEX	44	0	46	193	47	23	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	12.1%	12.5%	3.0%	4.64	4.57	-0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	44	0	46	196	49	22	6	0%	1.1	24.9%	11.1%	13.7%	3.0%	4.50	4.41	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	44	0	46	196	49	22	6	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.0%	14.0%	3.0%	4.43	4.39	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	44	0	46	193	48	21	6	0%	1.0	24.9%	11.0%	13.9%	3.0%	4.42	4.42	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	42	0	44	187	46	21	6	0%	1.1	24.8%	11.2%	13.6%	3.1%	4.47	4.51	+0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	TEX	19	0	20	84	21	10	3	0%	1.1	24.6%	12.1%	12.5%	3.0%	4.64	4.57	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	30	0	31	131	33	15	4	0%	1.0	24.9%	11.1%	13.7%	3.0%	4.50	4.41	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	35	0	37	156	39	17	5	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.0%	14.0%	3.0%	4.43	4.39	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	37	0	39	165	41	18	5	0%	1.1	24.9%	11.0%	13.9%	3.0%	4.42	4.42	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	37	0	39	165	41	18	5	0%	1.1	24.8%	11.2%	13.6%	3.1%	4.47	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		158	0	165	699	174	78	21	0%	1.0	24.9%	11.2%	13.6%	3.0%	4.48	4.07	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	210	94	25	0%	1.1	24.9%	11.2%	13.6%	3.0%	4.48	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		36	0	46	194	52	39	5	0%	1.3	26.7%	20.1%	6.6%	2.7%	3.35	4.86	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	0	200	850	227	171	23	0%	1.3	26.7%	20.1%	6.6%	2.7%	3.35	4.86	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
J.D. McReynolds (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	24.1%	13.6%	3.0%	—	4.46	24.8%	13.4%	139	-0.35	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	91
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	91
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	90
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	89
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	89
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	88
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	88
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	88
Cre Finfrock R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	23	SU	4.63	23.0%	11.7%	3.6%	.278	6.31	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.68	4.27	103	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	87
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	87
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	87
Jesen Therrien R 2016 · 3.98 FIP	23	SU	3.98	25.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.310	3.40	21.3%	15.8%	76	-0.58	2.72	192	87
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.56	249	87
Ryan Sublette R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	23	SU	3.74	27.3%	14.6%	2.0%	.301	5.29	19.7%	2.0%	149	+1.55	3.74	203	87
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	87
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	87
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	43	24.7%	11.6%	1.16	4.53
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81