Alberto Hernandez
SS Corpus Christi Hooks| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | AHOU | 271 | .197/.289/.251 | 2 | 4 | 19 | — | .157/.226/.190 |
| 2025 | 21 | AHOU | 344 | .225/.317/.302 | 2 | 24 | 48 | — | .206/.269/.273 |
| 2026 | 22 | AA/A+HOU | 151 | .212/.275/.365 | 3 | 0 | 42 | — | .178/.228/.313 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBHOU | 3 | .209/.264/.304 | 0 | 0 | 57 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 24 | MLBHOU | 60 | .214/.270/.320 | 1 | 1 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 25 | MLBHOU | 112 | .217/.275/.330 | 2 | 2 | 68 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL HOU Blue | — | 193 | 166 | 39 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 27 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 235 | 335 | 349 | 684 | 114 | 261 | 14 | 10 | 312 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 169 | 140 | 36 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 31 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 257 | 377 | 414 | 792 | 157 | 315 | 18 | 14 | 354 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 271 | 239 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 61 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 197 | 289 | 251 | 540 | 54 | 254 | 23 | 11 | 256 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 344 | 298 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 59 | 4 | 24 | 7 | 225 | 317 | 302 | 619 | 77 | 269 | 17 | 10 | 283 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 110 | 97 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 278 | 320 | 597 | 124 | 230 | 21 | 9 | 268 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 41 | 40 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 268 | 475 | 743 | 225 | 300 | 22 | 2 | 321 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Blue | — | 193 | 172 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 33 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 157 | 241 | 209 | 450 | 52 | 181 | 17 | 7 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 169 | 149 | 29 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 42 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 195 | 281 | 302 | 583 | 107 | 256 | 25 | 9 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 271 | 248 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 81 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 157 | 226 | 190 | 415 | 32 | 226 | 30 | 7 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 344 | 311 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 80 | 4 | 24 | 7 | 206 | 269 | 273 | 543 | 68 | 256 | 23 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 110 | 100 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 231 | 280 | 511 | 110 | 210 | 25 | 6 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 41 | 40 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 220 | 400 | 620 | 200 | 250 | 29 | 2 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Blue | — | 193 | 172 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 33 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 157 | 241 | 209 | 450 | 52 | 186 | 17 | 7 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL HOU Blue | — | 193 | 166 | 39 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 27 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 235 | 335 | 349 | 684 | 114 | 261 | 14 | 10 | 312 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 169 | 149 | 29 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 42 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 195 | 281 | 302 | 583 | 107 | 262 | 25 | 9 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Astros | — | 169 | 140 | 36 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 31 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 257 | 377 | 414 | 792 | 157 | 315 | 18 | 14 | 354 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 271 | 248 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 81 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 157 | 226 | 190 | 415 | 32 | 228 | 30 | 7 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 271 | 239 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 61 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 197 | 289 | 251 | 540 | 54 | 254 | 23 | 11 | 256 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 344 | 311 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 80 | 4 | 24 | 7 | 206 | 269 | 273 | 543 | 68 | 265 | 23 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A RAW | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 344 | 298 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 59 | 4 | 24 | 7 | 225 | 317 | 302 | 619 | 77 | 269 | 17 | 10 | 283 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 151 | 140 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 179 | 228 | 293 | 521 | 114 | 230 | 26 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 151 | 137 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 212 | 275 | 365 | 640 | 153 | 250 | 21 | 7 | 283 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Blue | — | 193 | 172 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 33 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 157 | 241 | 209 | 450 | 52 | 181 | 17 | 7 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 169 | 149 | 29 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 42 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 195 | 281 | 302 | 583 | 107 | 256 | 25 | 9 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 271 | 247 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 81 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 158 | 226 | 190 | 416 | 32 | 226 | 30 | 7 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 344 | 314 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 80 | 4 | 24 | 7 | 204 | 269 | 271 | 540 | 67 | 256 | 23 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 151 | 141 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 177 | 228 | 291 | 519 | 113 | 221 | 26 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 271 | 247 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 81 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 158 | 226 | 190 | 416 | 32 | 226 | 30 | 7 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 344 | 314 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 80 | 4 | 24 | 7 | 204 | 269 | 271 | 540 | 67 | 256 | 23 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 151 | 141 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 177 | 228 | 291 | 519 | 113 | 221 | 26 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | HOU | 2% | 292 | 270 | 55 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 69 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 206 | 261 | 299 | 560 | 93 | 263 | 24 | 6 | 253 | 57 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | HOU | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 264 | 304 | 568 | 95 | 267 | 33 | 0 | 257 | 57 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | HOU | 31% | 192 | 177 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 45 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 267 | 315 | 583 | 104 | 265 | 23 | 6 | 262 | 64 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | HOU | 45% | 252 | 232 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 59 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 214 | 272 | 326 | 597 | 111 | 267 | 23 | 6 | 268 | 68 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | HOU | 51% | 300 | 275 | 60 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 70 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 216 | 275 | 332 | 606 | 116 | 268 | 23 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | HOU | 53% | 320 | 292 | 64 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 75 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 217 | 276 | 333 | 609 | 117 | 268 | 23 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | HOU | 53% | 329 | 301 | 66 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 77 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 216 | 276 | 333 | 609 | 116 | 269 | 23 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | HOU | 57% | 324 | 297 | 64 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 77 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 274 | 327 | 601 | 113 | 268 | 24 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | HOU | 31% | 60 | 56 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 270 | 320 | 591 | 106 | 270 | 23 | 7 | 266 | 64 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | HOU | 45% | 112 | 103 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 275 | 330 | 605 | 113 | 271 | 23 | 6 | 272 | 68 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | HOU | 51% | 153 | 141 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 278 | 336 | 614 | 117 | 272 | 24 | 7 | 275 | 70 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | HOU | 53% | 168 | 154 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 279 | 337 | 616 | 118 | 273 | 23 | 7 | 276 | 71 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | HOU | 53% | 176 | 161 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 279 | 337 | 616 | 117 | 273 | 23 | 7 | 276 | 71 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | HOU | 57% | 185 | 169 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 277 | 331 | 608 | 114 | 272 | 24 | 7 | 273 | 69 | -7 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 854 | 784 | 172 | 39 | 5 | 15 | 57 | 200 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 219 | 277 | 339 | 616 | 120 | 274 | 23 | 7 | 274 | 57 | -31 | +0 | -1 | +9 | +19 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 597 | 131 | 30 | 4 | 11 | 43 | 152 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 219 | 276 | 338 | 615 | 119 | 274 | 23 | 7 | 274 | 57 | -24 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2980 | 2719 | 550 | 119 | 15 | 38 | 202 | 711 | 29 | 72 | 30 | 202 | 265 | 299 | 564 | 97 | 257 | 24 | 7 | 253 | 57 | -70 | +1 | -2 | +20 | +40 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 119 | 26 | 3 | 8 | 44 | 155 | 6 | 16 | 7 | 201 | 263 | 295 | 558 | 94 | 255 | 24 | 7 | 253 | 57 | -24 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 110 PAwOBA .266 → .228 (−38)K% 20.9% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.91% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 6.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×1.042 | 14.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.990 | ×1.042 | 7.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.990 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 2.25% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .266 → .228; ISO .124 → .105; BABIP .230 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Asheville Tourists · 41 PAwOBA .311 → .239 (−72)K% 22.0% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.95% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 1.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 11.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 10.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.87% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .311 → .239; ISO .225 → .174; BABIP .300 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 344 PAwOBA .280 → .239 (−41)K% 17.2% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.15% | ÷0.996 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.47% | ÷1.072 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.92% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×1.015 | 20.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.44% | ÷1.035 | ×0.830 | ×1.030 | ×1.015 | 4.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷0.953 | ×0.910 | ×1.030 | ×1.015 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.84% | ÷1.005 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.68% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 91, K 99, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .280 → .239; ISO .077 → .066; BABIP .269 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 271 PAwOBA .249 → .196 (−53)K% 22.5% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.51% | ÷1.020 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.33% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.35% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×1.030 | 19.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.93% | ÷1.132 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×1.030 | 2.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.006 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.12% | ÷1.118 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.83% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 108, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .249 → .196; ISO .054 → .039; BABIP .254 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Astros · 169 PAwOBA .348 → .259 (−89)K% 18.3% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.34% | ÷1.058 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.20% | ÷1.007 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.78% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.43% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | ×1.028 | ×1.008 | 14.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.84% | ÷0.939 | ×0.720 | ×1.028 | ×1.008 | 10.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.92% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×1.028 | ×1.008 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.83% | ÷1.379 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.05% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 103, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 112, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .348 → .259; ISO .157 → .116; BABIP .315 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL HOU Blue · 193 PAwOBA .307 → .211 (−97)K% 14.0% → 17.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.99% | ÷1.001 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.36% | ÷1.027 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.59% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.14% | ÷0.980 | ×0.680 | ×1.033 | ×1.008 | 14.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.32% | ÷1.015 | ×0.600 | ×1.033 | ×1.008 | 2.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.44% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×1.033 | ×1.008 | 1.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.16% | ÷0.989 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.03% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 100, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .307 → .211; ISO .114 → .067; BABIP .261 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).