Bryan Rivera

P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	18	12	73	5.28	3.26	24.3%	12.2%	—	K 17.0% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.53
2025	20	ACarolina Mudc…	25	3	73	5.82	4.24	24.8%	14.5%	—	K 18.3% · BB 17.1% · FIP 5.10
2026	21	A+MIL	9	0	15	9.39	6.75	13.6%	16.0%	—	K 10.5% · BB 18.5% · FIP 7.10
2027PROJ	22	MLBMIL	43	0	45	6.24	6.24	15.1%	18.7%	-0.8
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBMIL	32	0	34	5.85	5.73	17.0%	16.2%	-0.4
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBMIL	47	0	49	5.54	5.41	18.1%	14.6%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control25Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsSeth McClung (age 22) · Reynardo Cruz (age 20) · Drew Conover (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 152144vR 135

ERA6.24

FIP6.24

K%15.1%

BB%18.7%

K-BB%-3.6%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	7	5	24	109	26	11	3	71%	3.4	16.2%	12.6%	3.6%	3.5%	5.62	5.22	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	7	5	24	109	26	11	3	71%	3.4	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	2.8%	5.62	3.93	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	12	12	53	213	63	24	5	100%	4.4	20.1%	14.1%	6.0%	1.7%	3.57	4.13	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	12	12	53	213	63	24	5	100%	4.4	29.6%	11.3%	18.3%	2.3%	3.57	3.31	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	73	329	80	40	4	67%	4.1	17.0%	14.9%	2.2%	1.8%	5.28	4.53	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	12	73	329	80	40	4	67%	4.1	17.0%	14.9%	2.2%	1.8%	5.28	4.53	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	12	73	329	80	40	4	67%	4.1	24.3%	12.2%	12.2%	1.2%	5.28	3.26	—
2025	20	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	25	3	73	339	84	49	8	12%	2.9	18.3%	17.1%	1.3%	2.5%	5.82	5.10	—
2025	20	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	25	3	73	339	84	49	8	12%	2.9	18.3%	17.1%	1.3%	2.5%	5.82	5.10	—
2025	20	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	25	3	73	339	84	49	8	12%	2.9	24.8%	14.5%	10.3%	2.4%	5.82	4.24	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	9	0	15	81	11	13	3	0%	1.7	10.5%	18.5%	-8.0%	4.6%	9.39	7.10	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	9	0	15	81	11	13	3	0%	1.7	10.5%	18.5%	-8.0%	4.6%	9.39	7.10	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	9	0	15	81	11	13	3	0%	1.7	13.6%	16.0%	-2.5%	3.7%	9.39	6.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	MIL	43	0	45	190	29	36	6	0%	1.0	15.1%	18.7%	-3.6%	3.0%	6.24	6.24	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIL	65	0	68	287	49	46	9	0%	1.0	17.0%	16.2%	0.8%	3.0%	5.85	5.73	-0.9
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIL	66	0	70	294	53	43	9	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.6%	3.6%	3.0%	5.54	5.41	-0.7
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIL	67	0	70	298	56	40	9	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.5%	5.3%	2.9%	5.33	5.22	-0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIL	67	0	70	298	57	40	9	0%	1.1	19.1%	13.4%	5.7%	2.9%	5.23	5.17	-0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIL	66	0	69	293	56	39	9	0%	1.1	19.1%	13.5%	5.6%	3.0%	5.22	5.21	-0.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIL	64	0	67	284	54	39	9	0%	1.1	19.0%	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	5.27	5.30	-0.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIL	61	0	64	271	51	38	9	0%	1.1	18.7%	13.8%	4.9%	3.2%	5.36	5.43	-0.6
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIL	32	0	34	144	24	23	4	0%	1.1	17.0%	16.2%	0.8%	3.0%	5.85	5.73	-0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIL	47	0	49	207	38	30	6	0%	1.0	18.1%	14.6%	3.6%	3.0%	5.54	5.41	-0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIL	54	0	57	241	45	33	7	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.5%	5.3%	2.9%	5.33	5.22	-0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIL	59	0	62	262	50	35	8	0%	1.1	19.1%	13.4%	5.7%	2.9%	5.23	5.17	-0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIL	60	0	63	266	51	36	8	0%	1.1	19.1%	13.5%	5.6%	3.0%	5.22	5.21	-0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIL	59	0	62	262	50	36	8	0%	1.1	19.0%	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	5.27	5.30	-0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIL	57	0	60	253	47	35	8	0%	1.1	18.7%	13.8%	4.9%	3.2%	5.36	5.43	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		367	0	386	1628	304	226	49	0%	1.1	18.7%	13.9%	4.8%	3.0%	5.36	4.94	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	158	117	25	0%	1.1	18.7%	13.9%	4.8%	3.0%	5.36	4.94	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		71	32	238	1071	187	165	26	45%	3.4	17.5%	15.4%	2.0%	2.4%	5.36	4.90	-4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	27	200	899	157	139	22	45%	3.4	17.5%	15.4%	2.0%	2.4%	5.36	4.90	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.24	15.1%	18.7%	3.0%	—	5.45	18.0%	3.3%	208	-0.79	—	—	—
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	84
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	84
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	84
Alberto Tirado R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	22	SW	5.69	14.7%	18.5%	2.7%	.294	3.82	16.5%	-0.2%	33	-1.87	3.78	247	83
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	82
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	82
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	82
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	81
Justin Ferrell R 2016 · 5.30 FIP	22	SW	5.30	14.9%	14.0%	3.1%	.261	4.34	20.4%	9.1%	173	-0.96	3.83	300	81
Mason McGwire R 2024 · 6.46 FIP	20	SP-	6.46	11.7%	21.2%	3.0%	.298	4.11	21.4%	10.7%	79	-2.35	4.11	155	81
Garrett Nuss R 2015 · 5.71 FIP	22	SW	5.71	14.1%	14.9%	3.5%	.352	4.58	15.0%	5.3%	92	-1.13	4.57	174	81
Jol Concepcion R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	22	SW	6.54	12.2%	20.0%	3.5%	.272	4.60	23.9%	3.9%	50	-1.94	4.60	154	81
Josh Gessner R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	22	SW	5.47	17.0%	15.0%	3.5%	.299	5.35	12.0%	-10.1%	34	-0.12	2.98	126	80
Johan Moreno R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	21	SW	6.25	13.2%	16.7%	3.9%	.325	4.36	20.7%	8.0%	115	-1.89	3.09	216	80
Ian Snell R 2004 · 5.74 FIP	22	SW	5.74	16.1%	16.1%	3.6%	.333	4.06	20.2%	12.0%	436	-1.68	3.69	804	80
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	79
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	79
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	79
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	78
Aneuris Rodriguez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	20	SW	5.22	16.0%	18.8%	2.0%	.310	6.65	14.6%	-15.5%	14	+1.43	3.15	118	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	66	18.3%	14.5%	1.17	5.47
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*