Thomas Sosa

RF Chesapeake Baysox

Age 22 L/L 6'4" / 160 lbs AA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #1040MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP42ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	A+Aberdeen Iron…	191	.222/.312/.407	6	3	45	—	.168/.238/.289
2025	20	INTLPeoria Javeli…	50	.178/.245/.244	1	2	38	—
2026	21	AABAL	446	.236/.310/.406	14	3	67	—	.210/.267/.346
2027PROJ2% MLB	22	MLBBAL	6	.205/.265/.337	0	0	65	-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBBAL	170	.213/.273/.359	5	2	73	-0.5
2029PROJ47% MLB	24	MLBBAL	242	.218/.280/.376	8	4	80	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.2M2033Arb-2$0.4M2034Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

ISO63

Whiff%44

wOBA36

K%36

wRC+31

BB%30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 9, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 80%

CompsAlexander Ovalles (age 22) · Travis Blankenhorn (age 22) · Victor Mesa Jr. (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .265 / .337

PA6

HR0

K%33

BB%6

BABIP274

ISO119

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$11M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT36

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

DEFENSE41

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Orange	—	160	139	28	5	0	3	14	42	5	0	1	201	297	302	600	101	260	26	9	276	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	143	124	36	7	3	4	17	31	2	5	4	290	385	492	877	202	360	22	12	387	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	84	72	13	1	0	0	11	28	1	8	1	181	298	194	492	14	295	33	13	245	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	308	271	66	18	2	4	33	86	2	22	9	244	330	369	699	125	339	28	11	315	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	41	38	6	1	0	2	2	11	1	0	0	158	220	342	562	184	160	27	5	251	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	191	167	37	9	2	6	18	46	4	3	2	222	312	407	719	186	265	24	9	319	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	43	38	9	0	0	1	4	12	1	1	2	237	326	316	641	79	320	28	9	299	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	50	45	8	0	0	1	4	15	0	2	1	178	245	244	489	67	233	30	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	446	399	94	22	2	14	38	121	5	3	4	236	310	406	716	170	300	27	9	317	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Orange	—	160	143	18	3	0	1	10	51	5	0	1	126	209	168	377	42	173	32	6	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	143	131	27	5	2	3	10	46	2	5	4	206	273	344	616	137	298	32	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	84	76	10	1	0	0	7	37	1	8	1	132	214	145	359	13	251	44	8	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	308	280	54	12	2	3	24	113	2	22	9	193	261	282	544	89	304	37	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	—	41	39	5	1	0	1	1	13	1	0	0	128	171	231	402	103	161	32	2	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	191	173	29	7	1	4	12	60	4	3	2	168	238	289	527	121	218	31	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	43	39	8	0	0	1	3	16	1	1	2	205	279	282	561	77	303	37	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	—	446	410	86	19	2	11	27	148	5	3	4	210	267	346	613	137	289	33	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Orange	—	160	143	18	3	0	1	10	51	5	0	1	126	209	168	377	42	183	32	6	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL BAL Orange	—	160	139	28	5	0	3	14	42	5	0	1	201	297	302	600	101	260	26	9	276	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	143	131	27	5	2	3	10	46	2	5	4	206	273	344	616	137	293	32	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	—	143	124	36	7	3	4	17	31	2	5	4	290	385	492	877	202	360	22	12	387	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	392	356	65	13	2	3	31	150	3	30	10	183	254	256	509	73	302	38	8	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	392	343	79	19	2	4	44	114	3	30	10	230	323	332	655	102	330	29	11	300	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	325	297	50	9	2	8	19	105	6	6	5	168	233	293	526	125	225	32	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	4 teams	—	325	288	60	10	2	10	28	84	6	6	5	208	292	361	653	153	254	26	9	293	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	—	446	410	86	19	2	11	27	148	5	3	4	210	267	346	613	137	295	33	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	—	446	399	94	22	2	14	38	121	5	3	4	236	310	406	716	170	300	27	9	317	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Orange	—	160	144	18	3	0	1	10	51	5	0	1	125	209	167	376	42	173	32	6	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	143	130	27	5	2	3	10	46	2	5	4	208	273	346	619	138	298	32	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	392	355	65	13	2	3	31	150	3	30	10	183	254	256	510	73	293	38	8	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	325	297	50	9	2	8	19	105	6	6	5	168	233	293	526	125	223	32	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	—	446	411	86	19	2	11	27	148	5	3	4	209	267	345	612	136	289	33	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	392	355	65	13	2	3	31	150	3	30	10	183	254	256	510	73	293	38	8	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	325	297	50	9	2	8	19	105	6	6	5	168	233	293	526	125	223	32	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	—	446	411	86	19	2	11	27	148	5	3	4	209	267	345	612	136	289	33	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BAL	2%	556	510	103	21	3	13	35	168	6	7	4	202	261	328	590	127	270	30	6	265	65	-23	-0	-4	-6	+12	-0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	BAL	2%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	205	265	337	601	131	274	33	0	269	65	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	35%	482	442	92	19	2	13	31	142	6	7	4	209	270	350	620	142	272	29	6	277	73	-15	-0	-3	-5	+10	-1.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	BAL	47%	520	474	101	20	2	16	35	150	6	8	4	214	276	366	642	152	275	29	7	286	80	-13	+0	-2	-6	+11	-1.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	BAL	52%	562	513	112	22	3	18	38	160	6	8	5	218	281	376	657	158	276	28	7	292	83	-11	-0	-2	-6	+12	-0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	577	526	116	23	3	19	40	162	6	9	5	220	283	381	665	161	277	28	7	295	86	-10	-0	-2	-6	+13	-0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	579	527	117	23	3	19	41	162	6	8	5	220	284	380	664	160	277	28	7	295	86	-10	-0	-2	-6	+13	-0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	576	524	115	23	3	18	41	162	6	7	5	218	282	375	657	157	276	28	7	292	84	-11	-1	-3	-6	+12	-0.8
2034	29	MLB MLE	BAL	53%	567	516	112	22	2	18	40	161	6	6	5	216	279	369	648	153	274	28	7	288	81	-13	-1	-3	-6	+12	-1.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	35%	170	155	34	7	1	5	11	50	2	2	1	213	273	359	633	147	277	29	6	282	73	-5	+0	-1	-2	+4	-0.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	BAL	47%	242	221	49	10	1	8	16	70	3	4	2	218	280	376	656	158	279	29	7	291	80	-6	+0	-1	-3	+5	-0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	BAL	52%	291	266	59	12	1	10	20	83	3	4	2	222	284	386	670	164	280	29	7	297	83	-6	+0	-1	-3	+6	-0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	313	284	64	13	1	11	22	88	4	5	3	224	287	391	679	167	281	28	7	300	86	-5	-0	-1	-3	+7	-0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	314	286	64	13	1	11	22	88	3	5	3	224	288	390	678	166	281	28	7	300	86	-5	-0	-1	-3	+7	-0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	313	285	63	13	1	10	22	88	3	4	3	222	286	385	671	163	280	28	7	298	84	-6	-0	-1	-3	+7	-0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	BAL	53%	301	274	60	12	1	10	21	86	3	3	3	220	283	379	662	159	279	29	7	294	81	-7	-1	-2	-3	+7	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1944	1771	393	80	7	65	134	553	21	27	17	222	285	385	670	163	282	28	7	296	72	-40	-1	-8	-21	+42	-2.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	132	27	2	22	45	185	7	9	6	223	286	387	673	164	283	28	7	296	72	-13	-0	-3	-7	+14	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	5649	5152	1069	213	27	154	383	1695	67	101	59	207	271	349	620	141	274	30	7	275	72	-96	-3	-19	-45	+91	-7.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	124	25	3	18	44	195	8	12	7	209	273	352	626	143	276	30	7	275	72	-15	-0	-3	-7	+14	-1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Eric Anthony'89-'97 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,243 PA	3.4	2,243	78	24	225*	300*	410*	-22	-22	0.1	0.6
/162	664	23	7	-6.7	-6.6	0.0	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.9	1,951	61	26	218	278	374	-12	-13	0.1	0.3
/162	664	21	9	-4.0	-4.6	0.0	pk7: 0
#4Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
#5Seth Brownlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,799 PA	2.7	1,799	74	24	227	293	421	-23	-34	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	27	9	-8.6	-12.4	-0.3	pk7: -1
#6Rip Russell'39-'47 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	29	4	236*	279*	389*	-16	-12	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	13	2	-6.9	-5.1	-1.2	pk7: -3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Thomas Sosa (OGILVIE)	22	20→36	45→55	55→48	40	200/259/326	126	270	7	4	30%	6%	65	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alexander Ovalles 2023 · AA	22	43→41	47→50	46→50	45	217/281/349	132	278	14	8	27%	7%	78	-0.3	214/279/323	109	308	11	11	32%	8%	71	-0.8	177/255/227	50	295	4	15	38%	10%	36	-0.7
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2019 · A	22	40→45	44→50	50	38	198/259/324	126	291	11	7	34%	6%	64	-1.3	217/266/355	138	298	15	9	31%	5%	74	-0.6	208/282/359	151	278	18	6	31%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2024 · AA	22	43→46	43→55	51→50	42	213/264/326	114	277	10	11	27%	6%	66	-1.1	230/284/377	147	283	17	11	24%	7%	85	+0.2	238/297/408	169	279	21	11	23%	7%	95	+0.5
✕Leandro Pineda 2024 · A	22	39→49	42→50	48→45	42	191/259/302	111	275	9	6	33%	7%	59	-1.6	213/280/341	128	279	13	6	27%	7%	76	-0.4	218/291/356	137	276	14	5	25%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Drew Robinson 2015 · AAA	23	39→43	44→55	49→50	42	191/265/312	121	292	10	9	36%	8%	64	-1.3	204/281/365	161	290	18	12	33%	9%	82	-0.0	211/288/384	173	313	19	12	36%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Nick Maton 2019 · A	22	43→42	42→50	47→45	40	211/264/322	111	295	9	5	30%	6%	65	-1.2	211/278/312	101	291	8	8	28%	8%	68	-1.0	210/302/353	143	263	16	4	25%	10%	86	+0.2
✕Isan Díaz 2018 · A	22	40→43	47→55	45	43	202/273/336	134	296	14	8	35%	8%	72	-0.7	214/284/363	149	300	16	8	32%	8%	82	+0.0	212/290/379	167	275	21	5	30%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Daniel Palka 2015 · A	23	39→43	49→55	47→50	41	205/264/354	149	277	17	6	32%	7%	73	-0.6	211/262/382	171	301	22	10	36%	6%	79	-0.2	207/274/387	180	261	25	4	31%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Gavin Conticello 2024 · A	21	36→46	45	48→50	40	185/254/310	126	264	13	8	34%	7%	59	-1.6	219/279/344	125	300	11	8	29%	7%	76	-0.4	230/290/358	128	308	12	7	28%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→45	49→50	40	186/254/299	114	273	12	9	35%	7%	57	-1.8	197/278/292	95	346	7	8	41%	8%	64	-1.3	149/272/225	76	351	3	4	50%	12%	46	-0.6
✕Matthew Sweeney 2011 · AA	23	42	44→55	48→45	41	209/269/327	118	295	11	4	32%	7%	68	-1.0	188/250/297	109	270	10	4	32%	7%	55	-2.0	155/222/262	107	217	10	1	32%	7%	33	-1.3
✕Argenis Aldazoro 2015 · A	22	41	47→55	53→50	36	211/240/345	133	266	15	9	27%	4%	61	-1.5	205/244/289	84	282	6	8	28%	5%	49	-2.4	202/238/261	60	287	0	6	28%	4%	36	-0.8
✕Brian O'Grady 2015 · A	23	39→38	43→60	54→50	46	194/258/307	113	251	9	8	26%	8%	59	-1.6	188/270/299	111	264	10	14	30%	9%	63	-1.4	212/274/402	190	276	23	15	31%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Jabari Henry 2013 · A	22	41	46→55	49→45	44	208/269/341	133	270	13	6	28%	7%	72	-0.7	206/283/358	152	269	17	6	28%	9%	81	-0.1	191/276/354	163	247	19	6	30%	10%	74	-0.4
✕Enmanuel Valdez 2021 · A	22	40→47	42→55	46→45	40	199/252/305	106	273	10	9	30%	6%	57	-1.8	221/280/394	173	275	22	8	27%	7%	88	+0.5	223/287/404	181	270	24	8	27%	8%	92	+0.5
✕Michael Burgess 2011 · AA	22	41→43	49→50	45	39	211/272/362	151	296	17	6	34%	6%	78	-0.3	205/268/342	137	269	15	3	28%	7%	72	-0.7	210/257/358	148	260	15	2	25%	6%	70	-0.5
✕Abimelec Ortiz 2023 · A	21	36→42	47→60	43→40	43	188/265/318	130	263	16	7	34%	8%	65	-1.2	216/279/399	183	284	24	4	32%	7%	89	+0.5	215/282/406	191	269	25	2	30%	7%	90	+0.5
✕Bo Naylor 2022 · AA	22	35→45	45→55	54→50	40	182/245/305	123	268	13	11	36%	7%	54	-2.0	218/306/386	168	285	19	13	29%	11%	97	+1.1	218/311/396	178	274	21	12	27%	11%	100	+1.0
✕Parker Meadows 2022 · A	22	36→46	42→55	43→55	40	185/244/283	98	262	10	9	32%	6%	49	-2.4	222/286/377	155	285	16	17	27%	8%	86	+0.3	229/297/399	170	285	18	21	26%	8%	94	+0.9
✕Alex Glenn 2013 · A	22	39→42	48→55	53→50	39	198/264/339	141	300	15	10	38%	7%	70	-0.9	213/268/361	148	284	15	11	29%	6%	76	-0.4	210/261/367	156	270	16	12	28%	6%	72	-0.5

Thomas Sosa

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps