Juan Martínez — OGILVIE

Juan MartínezOF DSL Orioles Black

Age 21 R/R 6'4" / 175 lbs ROK HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .267 / .294

PA47

HR1

K%32

BB%8

ISO99

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	—	102	91	6	2	0	0	8	48	2	0	2	66	158	88	246	22	136	47	8	128	-44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	—	102	86	10	3	0	0	13	31	2	0	2	116	248	151	399	35	179	30	13	203	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	146	132	17	2	1	4	14	67	0	1	2	129	212	250	462	121	213	46	10	204	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	146	122	26	3	2	4	24	41	0	1	2	213	342	369	711	156	286	28	16	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	57	49	3	2	0	0	7	15	1	2	0	61	193	102	295	41	88	26	12	153	-25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	57	45	4	3	0	0	11	10	1	2	0	89	281	156	436	67	114	18	19	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	BAL	—	47	43	9	2	0	1	4	15	0	1	0	209	277	326	602	116	286	32	9	258	55	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	BAL	34%	113	102	21	4	1	2	9	35	1	1	0	206	277	324	600	118	288	31	8	268	63	-5	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.2
2028	23	MLB	BAL	48%	248	224	47	8	2	5	20	75	2	3	1	210	280	330	611	121	289	30	8	276	69	-9	+0	+0	-1	+7	-0.3
2027	22	MLB	BAL	34%	39	36	7	1	0	1	3	12	0	0	0	194	256	306	562	111	292	31	8	266	62	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	BAL	48%	120	108	23	4	1	2	10	36	1	1	0	213	286	324	610	111	293	30	8	273	67	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	159	144	30	5	1	3	13	48	1	1	0	208	278	319	598	111	287	30	8	272	66	-6	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	122	20	4	12	53	196	4	4	0	207	277	316	593	109	286	30	8	272	66	-25	+1	+0	-4	+18	-1.0
Career	—			—	713	641	103	20	4	12	62	255	6	8	5	161	241	261	502	100	241	36	9	228	32	-54	-0	+0	-4	+20	-4.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	94	18	4	11	57	232	5	7	5	161	241	262	503	101	241	36	9	228	32	-50	-1	+0	-4	+18	-3.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	—	102	86	10	3	0	0	13	31	2	0	2	116	248	151	399	35	179	30	13	203	14	-10	-1	—	—	+3	-0.8
2023	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	146	122	26	3	2	4	24	41	0	1	2	213	342	369	711	156	286	28	16	326	107	+1	-1	—	—	+4	0.5
2024	19	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	57	45	4	3	0	0	11	10	1	2	0	89	281	156	436	67	114	18	19	231	35	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	206	4	2	207	276	320	-1	+0	-0.3	-0.2
	/162	664	12	8	207	276	320	-4.0	+0.0	-1.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Martínez (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	196/267/294	98	286	1	1	32%	8%	55	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→29	42→45	49→50	44	189/258/299	110	261	8	12	30%	8%	53	-1.5	172/250/256	84	262	6	9	34%	9%	38	-2.6	154/242/228	74	235	5	8	33%	9%	26	-2.0
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→34	41→45	48→50	40	199/264/295	96	283	9	10	32%	6%	54	-1.4	202/295/301	99	301	9	8	33%	10%	69	-0.4	182/291/276	94	275	9	10	33%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Jose Paniagua 2015 · A	21	38	40→50	50→55	42	189/249/288	99	268	7	12	31%	7%	46	-2.0	198/248/295	97	289	8	8	32%	6%	46	-2.0	179/215/276	97	256	10	2	33%	3%	23	-1.0
✕Kyle Nevin 2023 · A	21	41→38	40→45	52→50	38	198/249/295	97	282	6	10	31%	5%	47	-1.9	217/274/320	103	339	9	10	36%	7%	64	-0.8	212/271/309	97	334	9	12	37%	7%	57	-0.7
✕Alexander Mojica 2023 · A	20	34	41→45	47→40	39	168/245/259	91	281	10	3	41%	8%	37	-2.6	203/283/327	124	326	12	6	38%	9%	71	-0.3	196/292/343	147	309	14	3	37%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Allan Cerda 2021 · A	21	45→22	42→55	47→45	42	215/291/320	105	306	9	7	31%	7%	72	-0.2	184/280/353	169	285	20	5	40%	9%	77	+0.1	155/264/323	168	238	21	5	42%	10%	60	-0.6
✕Jordyn Adams 2021 · A	21	40	40→45	47→60	41	196/258/286	91	287	8	9	33%	7%	49	-1.8	189/245/281	92	306	8	24	38%	6%	41	-2.3	186/248/297	110	286	13	26	38%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Sherten Apostel 2020 · A	21	37→32	46→45	45→40	44	190/265/313	123	268	14	4	33%	8%	59	-1.1	202/264/327	125	311	14	4	37%	7%	63	-0.9	207/265/346	139	315	16	0	38%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Garrett Whitley 2017 · A	20	40→36	42→50	47→55	44	197/267/302	105	280	9	9	31%	8%	56	-1.3	191/270/310	119	334	12	13	42%	9%	61	-1.0	169/260/316	147	293	15	18	44%	10%	55	-0.9
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	40	-2.4	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	46	-2.0	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	42	-0.8
✕Leandro Pineda 2023 · A	21	36→39	39→45	47→45	42	172/250/266	95	272	5	6	36%	8%	41	-2.3	201/268/322	121	279	12	6	31%	7%	63	-0.9	202/271/322	120	261	12	6	26%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Carlos Dominguez 2021 · A	21	43→23	42→45	51→50	36	201/283/313	112	310	9	12	35%	5%	68	-0.5	166/239/291	125	334	15	12	52%	5%	44	-2.1	124/203/239	115	271	16	13	57%	5%	13	-1.9
✕Ethan Workinger 2023 · A	21	38→44	42→50	45	39	189/240/301	111	260	9	5	30%	5%	45	-2.1	211/260/341	130	280	14	6	29%	6%	64	-0.8	204/258/343	139	247	18	9	25%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Jose Carlos Urena 2016 · A	21	38	44→45	48→30	35	191/245/307	116	300	11	5	39%	6%	49	-1.8	203/258/309	106	324	12	3	39%	6%	55	-1.4	174/238/273	99	278	15	0	41%	7%	37	-0.9
✕Ariel Baez 2012 · A	21	39	41→40	43→45	43	194/265/291	97	265	8	5	29%	7%	53	-1.5	199/257/281	82	285	5	6	30%	6%	46	-2.0	173/227/238	65	246	2	6	29%	5%	20	-1.1
✕Joey Rose 2019 · A	21	36	42→50	51→40	34	172/236/275	102	313	9	4	45%	7%	37	-2.6	185/238/277	92	297	7	5	38%	6%	38	-2.6	150/191/229	78	223	6	2	34%	4%	3	-1.6
✕Franklin Labour 2019 · A	21	42	39→45	50	43	202/271/295	93	278	6	11	28%	7%	57	-1.2	192/266/288	96	314	7	8	38%	8%	53	-1.5	150/245/272	121	261	13	9	44%	10%	39	-1.0
✕Jase Bowen 2022 · A	21	37→38	41→50	54→55	34	183/241/274	91	285	9	12	37%	5%	39	-2.5	193/247/307	114	286	13	16	36%	5%	50	-1.7	200/250/342	142	290	17	24	36%	5%	57	-0.7
✕Walking Cabrera 2023 · A	22	37→34	42→45	47→45	40	188/245/295	107	268	10	8	33%	7%	46	-2.0	203/253/315	112	302	12	9	35%	6%	54	-1.4	191/237/303	112	281	15	10	37%	5%	43	-1.2