Aron Estrada

2B Chesapeake Baysox

Age 22 S/R 5'11" / 142 lbs AA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #626MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP41ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	AABAL	110	.300/.358/.500	5	4	118	—	.294/.339/.431
2025	20	A+Aberdeen Iron…	333	.284/.373/.429	5	30	84	—	.248/.309/.363
2026	21	AABAL	508	.278/.325/.481	24	7	99	—	.265/.301/.429
2026	21	INTLAguilas del Z…	39	.378/.410/.568	1	1	177	—
2027PROJ2% MLB	22	MLBBAL	6	.250/.296/.397	0	0	90	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	23	MLBBAL	251	.253/.301/.407	8	7	94	0.4
2029PROJ58% MLB	24	MLBBAL	348	.255/.305/.413	11	9	96	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$6M2033Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

K%82

ISO76

Z-Con%71

Whiff%69

wOBA60

wRC+55

Career WAR1 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 16, comp-based) · star 7% · didn't stick 56%

CompsAgustín Ramírez (age 22) · Nick Franklin (age 22) · Angel Martínez (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .296 / .397

PA6

HR0

K%17

BB%5

BABIP287

ISO141

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$18M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED53

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$6M	+$3M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+1.0	$5M	+$2M
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$20M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	—	174	136	50	12	3	3	29	23	5	4	3	368	494	566	1.060	199	412	13	17	456	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	81	63	13	3	2	1	15	11	3	5	0	206	383	365	748	159	235	14	19	348	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	98	85	21	1	2	1	11	13	1	8	5	247	340	341	681	94	278	13	11	310	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	388	348	103	18	3	8	29	65	8	31	8	296	364	434	798	138	342	17	7	355	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	110	100	30	3	1	5	9	17	0	4	0	300	358	500	858	200	316	15	8	374	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	333	289	82	13	7	5	35	58	6	30	6	284	373	429	802	145	336	17	11	357	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	22	20	7	0	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	350	409	500	909	150	333	5	9	405	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	508	468	130	21	1	24	31	94	2	7	3	278	325	481	806	203	298	19	6	350	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	—	39	37	14	4	0	1	2	4	0	1	1	378	410	568	978	189	406	10	5	430	177	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	174	146	39	10	2	2	19	29	5	4	3	267	371	404	775	137	292	17	11	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	81	69	11	2	2	1	9	16	3	5	0	159	284	290	574	130	195	20	11	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	98	89	19	1	2	1	7	17	1	8	5	213	278	303	582	90	242	17	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	388	357	95	13	3	7	20	85	8	31	8	266	319	378	698	112	323	22	5	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	—	110	102	30	3	1	3	7	20	0	4	0	294	339	431	771	137	339	18	6	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	333	303	75	11	6	4	21	75	6	30	6	248	309	363	672	116	305	23	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	22	21	7	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	333	364	476	840	143	321	5	5	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	—	508	476	126	19	1	19	23	115	2	7	3	265	301	429	730	164	302	23	5	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	174	146	39	10	2	2	19	29	5	4	3	267	371	404	775	137	311	17	11	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL BAL Black	—	174	136	50	12	3	3	29	23	5	4	3	368	494	566	1.060	199	412	13	17	456	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	81	69	11	2	2	1	9	16	3	5	0	159	284	290	574	130	192	20	11	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	—	81	63	13	3	2	1	15	11	3	5	0	206	383	365	748	159	235	14	19	348	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	486	445	114	14	5	8	28	103	9	39	13	256	313	364	677	108	314	21	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	486	433	124	19	5	9	40	78	9	39	13	286	359	416	775	129	329	16	8	346	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	443	405	105	14	7	7	28	95	6	34	6	259	317	380	697	121	319	21	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	443	389	112	16	8	10	44	75	6	34	6	288	369	447	816	159	331	17	10	361	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	569	534	144	21	1	22	26	125	2	9	4	270	306	436	742	167	310	22	5	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA RAW	3 teams	—	569	525	151	25	1	26	35	99	2	9	4	288	335	488	822	200	308	17	6	357	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	174	148	39	10	2	2	19	29	5	4	3	264	371	399	769	135	292	17	11	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	81	69	11	2	2	1	9	16	3	5	0	159	284	290	574	130	195	20	11	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	486	446	114	14	5	8	28	103	9	39	13	256	313	363	677	108	307	21	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	443	406	105	14	7	7	28	95	6	34	6	259	317	379	696	121	313	21	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	569	536	144	21	1	22	26	125	2	9	4	269	306	435	741	166	303	22	5	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	486	446	114	14	5	8	28	103	9	39	13	256	313	363	677	108	307	21	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	443	406	105	14	7	7	28	95	6	34	6	259	317	379	696	121	313	21	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	569	536	144	21	1	22	26	125	2	9	4	269	306	435	741	166	303	22	5	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BAL	2%	639	595	146	21	4	18	34	129	5	17	4	246	292	388	680	142	283	20	5	301	90	-8	+2	-5	+2	+14	0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	BAL	2%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	296	397	693	147	287	17	0	306	90	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	44%	570	529	132	19	4	17	32	113	4	15	4	249	297	397	694	148	284	20	6	307	94	-4	+1	-3	+2	+12	0.8
2029	24	MLB MLE	BAL	58%	597	553	140	21	4	19	35	118	4	15	4	251	301	403	704	152	285	20	6	311	96	-3	+1	-2	+2	+13	1.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	BAL	65%	615	568	143	22	4	19	37	122	5	15	4	251	303	405	708	154	286	20	6	313	98	-2	+1	-1	+2	+13	1.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	BAL	68%	627	578	145	22	4	20	39	125	5	15	4	251	304	405	709	154	286	20	6	313	98	-1	+1	-1	+2	+14	1.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	BAL	68%	629	579	145	22	4	20	40	127	5	15	4	250	304	403	706	153	285	20	6	312	98	-2	+1	-1	+2	+14	1.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	BAL	68%	626	576	143	22	4	19	40	128	5	12	4	248	301	398	699	150	285	20	6	310	96	-3	+1	-2	+2	+14	1.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	BAL	66%	617	569	138	21	3	18	39	128	4	10	3	245	299	392	690	146	283	21	6	306	93	-5	+1	-3	+2	+13	0.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	BAL	71%	607	560	135	21	3	17	38	128	4	8	3	242	295	384	679	142	281	21	6	301	90	-7	+0	-3	+2	+13	0.5
2036	31	MLB MLE	BAL	75%	594	549	131	20	3	16	36	127	4	4	2	238	290	374	664	136	278	21	6	295	86	-10	+0	-4	+2	+13	0.1
2037	32	MLB MLE	BAL	77%	576	533	124	18	3	15	35	126	3	1	3	233	284	361	645	129	275	22	6	287	80	-13	-1	-5	+2	+12	-0.5
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	44%	251	233	60	9	2	8	14	50	2	7	2	253	301	407	708	153	288	20	6	312	94	-2	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	BAL	58%	348	322	81	12	2	11	20	69	3	9	2	255	305	413	717	157	289	20	6	316	96	-1	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	BAL	65%	400	370	94	14	3	13	24	79	3	10	3	256	307	415	722	160	290	20	6	318	98	-1	+1	-1	+1	+9	0.9
2031	26	MLB CTX	BAL	68%	427	394	100	15	3	14	27	85	3	10	3	255	308	415	723	160	290	20	6	319	98	-1	+1	-1	+2	+9	1.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	BAL	68%	428	395	101	16	3	14	27	86	3	10	3	254	308	413	720	159	290	20	6	318	98	-1	+1	-1	+2	+9	1.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	BAL	68%	426	393	99	15	3	14	27	87	3	8	2	252	305	408	713	156	289	20	6	315	96	-2	+1	-1	+2	+9	0.8
2034	29	MLB CTX	BAL	66%	410	378	95	15	2	13	26	85	3	7	2	249	302	401	704	152	287	21	6	311	93	-3	+1	-2	+1	+9	0.6
2035	30	MLB CTX	BAL	71%	433	400	98	15	2	13	27	91	3	5	2	246	299	393	692	147	285	21	6	306	90	-5	+0	-2	+2	+9	0.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	BAL	75%	444	411	99	15	2	13	27	95	3	3	2	242	294	383	677	141	282	21	6	300	86	-8	-0	-3	+2	+10	0.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	BAL	77%	444	411	97	14	2	12	27	97	3	1	2	236	287	370	657	134	278	22	6	292	80	-10	-1	-4	+2	+10	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4011	3707	924	140	24	125	246	824	29	70	23	249	301	401	702	152	288	21	6	311	93	-35	+5	-17	+14	+87	5.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	150	23	4	20	40	134	5	11	4	250	302	401	703	151	289	21	6	311	93	-6	+1	-3	+2	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	8131	7491	1862	280	55	229	498	1675	70	209	63	249	302	392	694	144	290	21	6	306	93	-54	+9	-28	+23	+138	8.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	599	148	22	4	18	40	134	6	17	5	247	301	387	689	140	288	21	6	306	93	-6	+1	-3	+2	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	5.5	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
/162	664	23	11	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#2Brett Lawrielast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,417 PA	3.6	2,417	71	41	261	315	419	+9	+1	9.4	9.4
/162	664	20	11	+2.4	+0.3	2.6	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	6.0	4,016	119	70	246	295	393	+14	-8	9.3	8.6
/162	664	20	12	+2.4	-1.4	1.5	pk7: 8
#3Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#4Charlie Neal'56-'63 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	87	48	251*	324*	402*	+18	-12	8.0	8.4
/162	664	15	8	+3.2	-2.1	1.4	pk7: 9
#5James Casey'01-'07 * career totals — 7 seasons, 4,082 PA	6.1	4,082	8	148	250*	311*	386*	+15	-22	7.6	7.6
/162	664	1	24	+2.4	-3.6	1.2	pk7: 8
#6Mike Lansing'93-'01 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,551 PA	6.9	4,551	84	119	259*	312*	394*	+20	-12	6.0	7.4
/162	664	12	17	+3.0	-1.8	0.9	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aron Estrada (OGILVIE)	22	20→44	40→47	50→53	45	244/290/385	141	283	9	8	20%	5%	90	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Agustín Ramírez 2024 · AA	22	44→48	48→55	48→55	47	226/286/366	140	275	16	10	24%	8%	84	+0.1	237/299/402	165	282	19	17	22%	7%	97	+1.1	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Nick Franklin 2013 · AAA	22	49→51	46→50	53→50	43	240/291/376	135	309	12	13	26%	6%	87	+0.4	236/303/375	139	301	14	12	25%	9%	92	+0.7	229/301/370	142	288	16	11	25%	9%	90	+0.5
✕Angel Martínez 2024 · AAA	22	47→50	45→50	49→50	45	230/291/357	127	290	12	10	25%	7%	83	+0.1	235/287/374	139	287	14	11	23%	6%	86	+0.3	236/284/389	154	280	16	12	22%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Brayan Rocchio 2023 · AAA	22	47→56	47→45	46→50	44	233/294/368	135	288	14	13	24%	6%	87	+0.4	234/302/353	119	283	9	16	20%	8%	86	+0.3	225/297/350	125	260	12	16	18%	7%	85	+0.2
●Ronny Simon 2023 · AA	23	39→49	52→50	56→60	39	213/257/378	165	265	21	22	29%	5%	76	-0.4	236/292/361	125	301	12	24	24%	7%	84	+0.2	273/337/383	110	340	8	30	21%	8%	103	+1.3
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	46→47	49→50	52→50	42	230/312/381	150	296	16	13	27%	6%	98	+1.2	223/306/371	148	287	17	12	27%	8%	93	+0.8	210/295/352	142	268	18	11	27%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	42→48	48→55	52→55	44	215/274/360	145	274	16	12	28%	7%	78	-0.3	228/295/388	160	293	16	20	27%	8%	92	+0.7	227/300/392	165	291	17	22	27%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2024 · MLB	22	49	48→55	50	40	247/286/391	145	308	15	14	25%	5%	89	+0.5	237/274/386	149	305	16	8	27%	5%	84	+0.1	229/267/373	144	293	16	7	27%	4%	79	-0.2
●Dylan Carlson 2021 · MLB	22	45→53	51→55	50	46	231/296/396	165	289	18	12	26%	8%	94	+0.9	244/320/400	156	301	15	6	23%	9%	104	+1.6	242/326/394	152	294	15	4	22%	9%	107	+1.4
✕Oswaldo Cabrera 2022 · AAA	23	44→49	52→55	50	40	229/273/400	170	296	20	15	30%	6%	86	+0.3	228/283/373	145	288	16	15	26%	7%	84	+0.2	241/292/345	104	296	13	9	23%	6%	80	-0.1
●Corey Patterson 2002 · MLB	22	44→54	49→55	52→60	43	226/283/367	141	268	18	14	24%	6%	83	+0.1	258/294/419	161	313	17	20	23%	4%	99	+1.2	263/300/434	170	320	18	24	23%	4%	105	+1.6
✕Drew Romo 2024 · AAA	22	46→51	44→50	49→50	43	226/272/344	118	281	11	12	24%	6%	73	-0.6	225/274/353	128	286	14	6	25%	5%	76	-0.4	216/270/344	129	272	15	4	26%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Masyn Winn 2024 · MLB	22	47→53	46→50	59→55	46	231/290/362	131	284	12	21	23%	7%	84	+0.1	247/304/374	127	293	12	12	19%	7%	92	+0.7	248/309/365	117	296	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2023 · AA	22	47→55	50→55	58→55	37	238/275/402	164	298	17	19	26%	4%	88	+0.4	245/282/399	154	307	17	23	25%	4%	90	+0.6	250/287/402	152	300	17	19	22%	4%	93	+0.8
✕Ronny Mauricio 2023 · AA	22	45→53	54→55	47→55	36	238/270/413	175	299	23	14	29%	4%	89	+0.5	251/293/407	156	317	19	20	26%	5%	95	+1.0	245/288/402	157	302	21	22	26%	5%	92	+0.5
✕Alen Hanson 2015 · AA	22	51→53	45→50	56→60	42	247/287/386	138	305	11	20	23%	5%	88	+0.4	244/280/363	119	300	9	29	21%	5%	79	-0.2	253/288/390	138	302	12	30	20%	4%	87	+0.3
✕Ramon Santiago 2003 · MLB	23	49→52	45	52→50	46	238/304/366	128	281	12	16	20%	6%	91	+0.6	223/288/310	87	254	7	13	15%	6%	72	-0.7	256/332/354	98	297	10	3	16%	8%	98	+0.6
✕Wenceel Pérez 2023 · AA	23	48→49	47→55	58→55	46	236/291/382	145	287	12	16	22%	7%	88	+0.5	236/299/378	142	289	13	17	22%	8%	91	+0.6	236/303/381	146	287	14	17	22%	8%	92	+0.6
●Logan O'Hoppe 2022 · AAA	22	44→48	48→55	46→45	43	226/277/363	137	270	17	7	24%	6%	80	-0.2	240/312/419	179	282	24	6	24%	8%	106	+1.8	242/317/431	188	286	27	4	25%	8%	110	+1.4
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	50→55	54→50	49	211/301/366	155	290	17	16	32%	10%	90	+0.6	217/302/391	174	272	21	10	27%	10%	96	+1.0	206/293/384	178	246	22	6	26%	10%	92	+0.5

Aron Estrada

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps