Yordy Herrera

P FCL Cardinals

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 150 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECTFG #977

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	18	34	3.15	2.26	41.9%	15.5%	—	K 29.9% · BB 16.8% · FIP 3.87
2025	20	ASTL	33	57	5.65	3.78	25.3%	15.2%	—	K 18.7% · BB 18.0% · FIP 4.89
2026	21	MIX2 levels	24	28	6.18	4.83	23.1%	20.9%	—	K 16.4% · BB 25.2% · FIP 6.02
2027PROJ	22	MLBSTL	86	90	5.81	5.81	21.1%	20.0%	-1.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSTL	44	46	5.41	5.25	22.9%	16.9%	-0.4
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBSTL	64	67	5.07	4.89	23.9%	14.9%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Command40FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJeff Belge (age 23) · Ramon Perez (age 22) · Julian Bosnic (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127135vR 143

ERA5.81

FIP5.81

K%21.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5560

CMD2540

K†5060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	13	1	17	88	27	20	0	8%	1.3	20.9%	28.4%	-7.5%	0.0%	4.32	4.94	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	13	1	17	88	27	20	0	8%	1.3	30.7%	22.7%	8.0%	0.0%	4.32	3.46	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	17	0	29	119	36	22	1	0%	1.7	20.6%	23.1%	-2.5%	1.3%	3.68	4.98	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	17	0	29	119	36	22	1	0%	1.7	30.3%	18.5%	11.8%	0.8%	3.68	3.34	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	34	148	62	23	2	0%	1.9	29.9%	16.8%	13.1%	2.1%	3.15	3.87	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	34	148	62	23	2	0%	1.9	29.9%	16.8%	13.1%	2.1%	3.15	3.87	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	34	148	62	23	2	0%	1.9	41.9%	15.5%	26.4%	1.4%	3.15	2.26	—
2025	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	33	0	57	269	68	41	4	0%	1.7	18.7%	18.0%	0.7%	2.0%	5.65	4.89	—
2025	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	33	0	57	269	68	41	4	0%	1.7	18.7%	18.0%	0.7%	2.0%	5.65	4.89	—
2025	20	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	33	0	57	269	68	41	4	0%	1.7	25.3%	15.2%	10.0%	1.5%	5.65	3.78	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	28	134	31	28	2	0%	1.2	16.4%	25.2%	-8.9%	2.0%	6.18	6.02	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	28	134	31	28	2	0%	1.2	16.4%	25.2%	-8.9%	2.0%	6.18	6.02	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	28	134	31	28	2	0%	1.2	23.1%	20.9%	2.2%	1.5%	6.18	4.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	STL	86	0	90	380	80	76	11	0%	1.0	21.1%	20.0%	1.1%	2.9%	5.81	5.81	-1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	STL	89	0	93	394	90	67	11	0%	1.0	22.9%	16.9%	6.0%	2.8%	5.41	5.25	-0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	STL	91	0	96	404	97	60	11	0%	1.1	23.9%	14.9%	9.1%	2.8%	5.07	4.89	-0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	STL	92	0	97	409	100	55	12	0%	1.1	24.6%	13.6%	11.0%	2.8%	4.82	4.67	-0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	STL	92	0	97	409	102	55	12	0%	1.1	24.9%	13.4%	11.5%	2.8%	4.70	4.62	-0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	STL	91	0	95	403	100	54	12	0%	1.0	24.9%	13.5%	11.4%	2.9%	4.68	4.66	-0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	STL	88	0	92	391	97	53	12	0%	1.1	24.8%	13.6%	11.2%	3.0%	4.72	4.75	-0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	STL	84	0	88	373	91	52	12	0%	1.1	24.5%	13.8%	10.7%	3.1%	4.81	4.88	-0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	STL	79	0	83	350	85	50	12	0%	1.1	24.2%	14.1%	10.0%	3.3%	4.96	5.05	-0.5
2028	23	MLB CTX	STL	44	0	46	194	44	33	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	16.9%	6.0%	2.8%	5.41	5.25	-0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	STL	64	0	67	283	68	42	8	0%	1.0	23.9%	14.9%	9.1%	2.8%	5.07	4.89	-0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	STL	75	0	79	334	82	45	9	0%	1.1	24.6%	13.6%	11.0%	2.8%	4.82	4.67	-0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	STL	81	0	85	359	89	48	10	0%	1.0	24.9%	13.4%	11.5%	2.8%	4.70	4.62	-0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	STL	82	0	86	363	90	49	10	0%	1.0	24.9%	13.5%	11.4%	2.9%	4.68	4.66	-0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	STL	81	0	85	359	89	49	11	0%	1.0	24.8%	13.6%	11.2%	3.0%	4.72	4.75	-0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	STL	78	0	82	346	85	48	11	0%	1.1	24.5%	13.8%	10.7%	3.1%	4.81	4.88	-0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	STL	74	0	78	329	80	47	11	0%	1.1	24.2%	14.1%	10.0%	3.3%	4.96	5.05	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		578	0	607	2564	626	360	76	0%	1.1	24.4%	14.0%	10.4%	3.0%	4.86	4.44	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	206	119	25	0%	1.1	24.4%	14.0%	10.4%	3.0%	4.86	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		105	1	165	758	159	160	13	1%	1.6	21.0%	21.0%	-0.0%	1.7%	4.74	4.91	-2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		127	1	200	917	193	193	15	1%	1.6	21.0%	21.0%	-0.0%	1.7%	4.74	4.91	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yordy Herrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.81	21.1%	20.0%	2.9%	—	4.93	23.8%	8.7%	286	-0.88	—	—	—
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	81
Ramon Perez L 2021 · 4.98 FIP	22	SU	4.98	19.9%	17.9%	2.4%	.290	3.08	28.9%	14.2%	31	-1.90	3.08	199	80
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	80
Armando Vasquez L 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	21.5%	18.0%	2.9%	.312	6.10	20.8%	2.7%	36	+0.95	4.22	131	80
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	78
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	78
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	78
Angel Hernandez L 2022 · 5.53 FIP	22	SU	5.53	23.4%	21.0%	3.2%	.262	4.36	21.2%	1.6%	123	-1.17	3.33	182	78
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	78
Destin Dotson L 2022 · 5.84 FIP	22	SU	5.84	23.0%	19.9%	4.0%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	113	75
Alex Katz L 2017 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	14.4%	18.0%	1.7%	.314	4.48	16.3%	1.2%	56	-0.63	2.69	240	75
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	75
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	74
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	74
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.35	164	74
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	74
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	74
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	73
Wilgenis Alvarado L 2022 · 4.70 FIP	22	SU	4.70	17.3%	15.9%	1.9%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	122	73
Felix Polanco L 2022 · 5.19 FIP	22	SU	5.19	18.7%	19.9%	2.1%	.290	3.68	18.8%	12.8%	27	-1.51	3.68	105	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	92	24.0%	14.8%	1.14	4.99
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Les Cain ('68-'72, 2 WAR*)	1.9	93	24.6%*	12.9%*	1.00*	4.66*
Tommy Byrne ('43-'57, 6 WAR*)	6.8	124	23.8%*	13.6%*	0.98*	4.39*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56