Ernesto Mercedes

Ernesto Mercedes P St. Lucie Mets

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 153145vR 137

ERA6.33

FIP6.33

K%20.3%

BB%24.2%

K-BB%-3.9%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	14	9	36	167	41	29	1	64%	2.6	16.7%	21.7%	-5.0%	0.9%	3.72	4.92	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	14	9	36	167	41	29	1	64%	2.6	24.6%	17.4%	7.2%	0.6%	3.72	3.60	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	8	33	154	40	24	0	67%	2.8	16.8%	17.2%	-0.4%	0.0%	3.24	3.86	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	8	33	154	40	24	0	67%	2.8	16.8%	17.2%	-0.4%	0.0%	3.24	3.86	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	8	33	154	40	24	0	67%	2.8	26.0%	15.6%	10.4%	0.0%	3.24	2.86	—
2024	20	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	18	13	65	305	89	60	1	72%	3.6	21.6%	23.2%	-1.6%	0.5%	5.54	4.50	—
2024	20	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	18	13	65	305	89	60	1	72%	3.6	21.6%	23.2%	-1.6%	0.5%	5.54	4.50	—
2024	20	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	18	13	65	305	89	60	1	72%	3.6	29.2%	19.7%	9.5%	0.3%	5.54	3.33	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	5	44	207	56	39	3	21%	1.8	20.1%	21.9%	-1.9%	2.3%	3.27	5.44	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	5	44	207	56	39	3	21%	1.8	20.1%	21.9%	-1.9%	2.3%	3.27	5.44	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	5	44	207	56	39	3	21%	1.8	27.1%	18.8%	8.2%	1.4%	3.27	4.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	36	0	47	215	76	34	3	0%	1.3	26.0%	18.7%	7.3%	1.9%	5.59	4.31	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	36	0	47	215	76	34	3	0%	1.3	26.0%	18.7%	7.3%	1.9%	5.59	4.31	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	NYM	35	0	45	208	73	33	3	0%	1.3	35.1%	15.9%	19.2%	1.4%	5.84	2.94	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	NYM	1	0	2	7	3	1	0	0%	2.0	42.9%	14.3%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	58	0	61	256	55	52	7	0%	1.0	21.4%	20.4%	1.0%	2.7%	5.90	5.75	-0.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	59	0	62	263	58	47	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	17.9%	4.2%	2.7%	5.54	5.37	-0.6
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	29	0	30	127	27	26	3	0%	1.0	21.4%	20.4%	1.0%	2.7%	5.90	5.75	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	41	0	43	182	40	32	5	0%	1.0	22.1%	17.9%	4.2%	2.7%	5.54	5.37	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	0	73	309	67	58	8	0%	1.0	21.8%	18.9%	2.9%	2.7%	5.69	5.14	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	158	22	0%	1.1	21.8%	18.9%	2.9%	2.7%	5.69	5.14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		104	35	225	1048	217	219	12	34%	2.2	20.7%	20.9%	-0.2%	1.1%	4.47	4.62	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		92	31	200	930	193	195	10	34%	2.2	20.7%	20.9%	-0.2%	1.1%	4.47	4.62	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ernesto Mercedes (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.33	20.3%	24.2%	2.7%	—	5.56	21.7%	2.6%	123	-0.77	—	—	—
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	83
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	82
Cole Aker R 2019 · 5.60 FIP	22	SW	5.60	19.5%	20.6%	2.8%	.239	6.17	12.0%	-9.9%	28	+0.57	3.60	147	82
Danny Dopico R 2016 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	18.3%	22.6%	2.1%	.309	3.19	23.9%	11.2%	189	-2.39	3.00	318	80
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	80
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	79
Darlin Pinales R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	17.0%	27.6%	2.8%	.350	4.44	21.7%	1.1%	117	-2.24	3.61	214	79
Sandy Gaston R 2023 · 6.60 FIP	21	SW	6.60	17.7%	24.0%	3.6%	.295	4.96	22.7%	4.4%	131	-1.64	4.17	310	78
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	78
Madison Jeffrey R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	22	SU	5.47	19.9%	25.3%	1.5%	.252	5.08	17.6%	-9.7%	107	-0.39	4.65	168	78
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	78
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	77
Ronny Lopez R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	20	SW	5.33	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	.232	5.01	13.7%	-5.7%	85	-0.32	4.23	121	77
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	77
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	77
Zach Barnes R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	18.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.378	5.03	14.9%	1.5%	119	-0.32	4.90	145	77
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	77
Bryce McGowan R 2022 · 5.90 FIP	22	SU	5.90	17.0%	22.9%	2.4%	.368	4.36	20.6%	6.6%	145	-1.54	3.71	178	77
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	77
Brett Hanewich R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	22	SU	5.18	15.9%	17.6%	2.2%	.372	4.32	20.3%	2.8%	108	-0.86	4.24	134	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	21.4%	20.5%	1.05	5.88
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15