Ernesto Mercedes
P
St. Lucie Mets
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
A
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 45 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 156146vR 137
ERA6.11
FIP6.11
K%20.3%
BB%22.2%
K-BB%-1.9%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 14 | 9 | 36 | 167 | 41 | 29 | 1 | 64% | 2.6 | 16.7% | 21.7% | -5.0% | 0.9% | 3.72 | 4.95 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 14 | 9 | 36 | 167 | 41 | 29 | 1 | 64% | 2.6 | 24.6% | 17.4% | 7.2% | 0.6% | 3.72 | 3.60 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 8 | 33 | 154 | 40 | 24 | 0 | 67% | 2.8 | 16.8% | 17.2% | -0.4% | 0.0% | 3.24 | 3.86 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 8 | 33 | 154 | 40 | 24 | 0 | 67% | 2.8 | 26.0% | 15.6% | 10.4% | 0.0% | 3.24 | 2.86 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 18 | 13 | 65 | 305 | 89 | 60 | 1 | 72% | 3.6 | 21.6% | 23.2% | -1.6% | 0.7% | 5.54 | 4.58 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 18 | 13 | 65 | 305 | 89 | 60 | 1 | 72% | 3.6 | 29.2% | 19.7% | 9.5% | 0.3% | 5.54 | 3.33 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 5 | 44 | 207 | 56 | 39 | 3 | 21% | 1.8 | 20.1% | 21.9% | -1.9% | 2.8% | 3.27 | 5.70 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 5 | 44 | 207 | 56 | 39 | 3 | 21% | 1.8 | 27.1% | 18.8% | 8.2% | 1.4% | 3.27 | 4.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 20 | 0 | 23 | 110 | 38 | 21 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 22.5% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 7.43 | 3.79 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYM | 42 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 38 | 42 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 22.2% | -1.9% | 2.8% | 6.11 | 6.11 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.3% | 22.2% | -1.9% | 2.8% | 6.11 | 6.11 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 68 | 298 | 76 | 63 | 5 | — | — | 25.6% | 21.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 6.56 | 5.32 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 42 | 37 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 18.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.73 | 5.59 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 44 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 16.8% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.25 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 46 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 15.4% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 18.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.73 | 5.59 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 31 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 16.8% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.25 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 37 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 15.4% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 90 | 0 | 95 | 401 | 89 | 67 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 16.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 5.38 | 4.86 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 141 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 16.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 5.38 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 88 | 35 | 202 | 943 | 189 | 204 | 9 | 40% | 2.3 | 20.1% | 21.6% | -1.5% | 1.0% | 4.55 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 35 | 200 | 935 | 188 | 202 | 9 | 40% | 2.3 | 20.1% | 21.6% | -1.5% | 1.0% | 4.55 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ernesto Mercedes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.11 | 20.3% | 22.2% | 2.8% | — | 5.29 | 22.0% | 5.0% | 142 | -0.82 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Brink R 2027 · 5.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.96 | 18.3% | 19.2% | 3.6% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 132 | 84 |
| Keegan Collett R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.05 | 21.9% | 24.6% | 1.2% | .321 | 4.97 | 29.1% | 9.0% | 84 | -0.08 | 3.99 | 184 | 83 |
| Kyle Crick R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.05 | 19.6% | 23.7% | 1.1% | .278 | 3.85 | 19.7% | 7.7% | 231 | -1.20 | 2.59 | 383 | 82 |
| Cole Aker R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.51 | 19.5% | 20.6% | 2.6% | .239 | 6.10 | 12.0% | -9.9% | 28 | +0.59 | 3.60 | 147 | 81 |
| Blake Quinn R 2027 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .328 | 4.28 | 17.1% | 3.3% | 48 | -1.04 | 4.28 | 122 | 81 |
| Ryan Cardona R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.30 | 20.9% | 17.7% | 3.1% | .274 | 4.20 | 18.5% | 4.3% | 292 | -1.10 | 3.46 | 367 | 81 |
| Jake Eddington R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.98 | 18.8% | 24.1% | 0.7% | .316 | 5.09 | 15.8% | -4.0% | 85 | +0.11 | 4.88 | 114 | 81 |
| Josh White R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.45 | 17.7% | 13.9% | 3.8% | .244 | 3.02 | 28.9% | 17.7% | 167 | -2.43 | 1.95 | 232 | 79 |
| Eury Rosado R 2026 · 6.29 FIP | 22 | SW | 6.29 | 17.8% | 18.2% | 4.4% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 109 | 79 |
| Kyle Wilcox R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.93 | 16.2% | 22.0% | 0.8% | .330 | 4.51 | 27.1% | 10.4% | 140 | -0.42 | 2.77 | 310 | 78 |
| Junior Rincon R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.93 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .318 | 3.77 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 82 | -1.16 | 3.50 | 113 | 77 |
| Alex Makarewich R 2026 · 6.07 FIP | 22 | SP- | 6.07 | 19.7% | 26.7% | 2.3% | .425 | 4.92 | 27.4% | -0.7% | 76 | -1.15 | 4.26 | 103 | 77 |
| Joey Matulovich R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.48 | 19.8% | 14.6% | 4.0% | .378 | 5.06 | 20.5% | 8.9% | 133 | -0.42 | 3.22 | 201 | 77 |
| Connor Walsh R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.98 | 23.3% | 20.7% | 2.2% | .288 | 4.02 | 21.3% | 6.8% | 151 | -0.96 | 3.40 | 266 | 77 |
| Jared Johnson R 2026 · 5.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.74 | 21.6% | 18.9% | 3.8% | .268 | 4.73 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 78 | -1.01 | 3.01 | 209 | 77 |
| Hamlet Garcia R 2024 · 5.91 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.91 | 17.8% | 21.8% | 2.8% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.53 | 104 | 76 |
| Victor Simeon R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.32 | 20.3% | 15.7% | 3.5% | .333 | 3.84 | 25.6% | 5.4% | 81 | -1.48 | 3.21 | 180 | 76 |
| Trayson Kubo R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.01 | 19.8% | 15.6% | 2.9% | .450 | 4.86 | 17.7% | 1.4% | 66 | -0.15 | 4.40 | 107 | 76 |
| Nixon Encarnacion R 2024 · 6.59 FIP | 20 | SU | 6.59 | 18.3% | 25.3% | 3.3% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 105 | 75 |
| Justin Ferrell R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.48 | 14.9% | 14.0% | 3.4% | .261 | 4.31 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 173 | -1.17 | 3.80 | 300 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 21.6% | 18.2% | 1.07 | 5.59 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |