Hung-Leng Chang
P
Greensboro Grasshoppers
+0.5
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 159 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.1 · 2028
ERA4.62
FIP4.62
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.5%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%11.2%
IP92
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 8 | 3 | 23 | 97 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 0.0% | 4.76 | 2.81 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 15 | 11 | 51 | 228 | 39 | 24 | 7 | 12.0% | 12.8% | 4.1% | 5.33 | 5.95 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 19 | 14 | 78 | 337 | 71 | 31 | 6 | 15.6% | 10.9% | 2.2% | 4.64 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 25 | 24 | 106 | 454 | 97 | 26 | 14 | 16.5% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 4.55 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 2 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 19.64 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 76 | 32 | 12 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 96 | 413 | 79 | 37 | 13 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 5.19 | 4.44 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 90 | 36 | 14 | 20.3% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.50 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 20 | 20 | 112 | 475 | 98 | 38 | 15 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.45 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 21 | 21 | 116 | 488 | 102 | 39 | 15 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.45 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 21 | 21 | 116 | 489 | 102 | 40 | 15 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 21 | 21 | 113 | 478 | 99 | 39 | 15 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.52 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 95 | 38 | 15 | 20.5% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.58 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 91 | 38 | 15 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 19 | 19 | 102 | 430 | 86 | 37 | 15 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.74 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 18 | 18 | 97 | 411 | 81 | 36 | 14 | 19.7% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.84 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 92 | 390 | 75 | 35 | 14 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 4.95 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 16 | 16 | 87 | 368 | 70 | 34 | 14 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 5.00 | 5.07 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 15 | 15 | 81 | 344 | 64 | 32 | 13 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 5.12 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 53 | 261 | 1140 | 176 | 111 | 34 | 15.4% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 5.07 | 4.69 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 41 | 200 | 874 | 135 | 85 | 26 | 15.4% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 5.07 | 4.69 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hung-Leng Chang (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.47 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 333 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 96 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 95 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 3.52 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 44 | -0.88 | 3.52 | 128 | 92 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 91 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 91 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.17 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.93 | 354 | 91 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 91 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.51 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.12 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.39 | 3.50 | 472 | 91 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 91 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 90 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 90 |
| Angel Araiza R 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .287 | 3.79 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.78 | 3.40 | 289 | 90 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 90 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.35 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.08 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.27 | 3.08 | 129 | 89 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 89 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 89 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 89 |
| Chris Devenski R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .298 | 2.89 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 236 | -1.19 | 2.10 | 608 | 88 |
| Edison Frias R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.90 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .318 | 4.18 | 13.7% | 3.5% | 166 | -0.72 | 4.14 | 279 | 88 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$1M |
| Totals | $7M | $33M | +$26M | ||