Hung-Leng Chang — OGILVIE

Hung-Leng Chang P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 159 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.0 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION91 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%15.3%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	8	3	23	97	27	8	0	38%	2.8	18.9%	10.3%	8.6%	0.0%	4.76	2.81	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	8	3	23	97	27	8	0	38%	2.8	27.8%	8.2%	19.6%	0.0%	4.76	1.78	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	11	51	228	39	24	7	73%	3.4	12.0%	12.8%	-0.8%	4.1%	5.33	5.96	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	11	51	228	39	24	7	73%	3.4	12.0%	12.8%	-0.8%	4.1%	5.33	5.96	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	11	51	228	39	24	7	73%	3.4	17.1%	10.5%	6.6%	3.1%	5.33	4.78	—
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	19	14	78	337	71	31	6	74%	4.1	15.6%	10.9%	4.7%	2.2%	4.64	4.37	—
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	19	14	78	337	71	31	6	74%	4.1	15.6%	10.9%	4.7%	2.2%	4.64	4.37	—
2024	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	19	14	78	337	71	31	6	74%	4.1	21.1%	9.2%	11.9%	1.8%	4.64	3.47	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	24	106	454	97	26	14	96%	4.3	16.5%	6.6%	9.9%	3.7%	4.82	4.56	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	24	106	454	97	26	14	96%	4.3	16.5%	6.6%	9.9%	3.7%	4.82	4.56	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	24	106	454	97	26	14	96%	4.3	21.4%	5.7%	15.6%	3.1%	4.82	3.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	27	13	91	456	93	63	22	48%	3.4	15.7%	15.9%	-0.2%	6.0%	8.74	7.10	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	27	13	91	456	93	63	22	48%	3.4	15.7%	15.9%	-0.2%	6.0%	8.74	7.10	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	PIT	27	13	91	456	93	63	22	48%	3.4	20.4%	13.8%	6.6%	4.8%	8.74	5.78	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	PIT	5	0	6	24	4	2	1	0%	1.1	15.3%	8.3%	7.0%	3.2%	4.97	4.97	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	96	480	97	65	23	—	—	20.1%	13.5%	6.6%	4.7%	8.51	6.97	-2.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	97	409	68	33	13	100%	5.7	16.7%	8.1%	8.6%	3.1%	4.84	4.81	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	97	409	71	33	13	100%	6.1	17.5%	8.0%	9.4%	3.1%	4.75	4.73	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	95	403	71	33	13	100%	6.0	17.7%	8.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.73	4.74	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	92	391	69	32	13	100%	6.2	17.6%	8.2%	9.4%	3.3%	4.78	4.81	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	88	373	65	31	13	100%	5.9	17.4%	8.4%	9.0%	3.4%	4.88	4.95	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	83	350	60	31	13	100%	5.9	17.1%	8.7%	8.3%	3.6%	5.03	5.12	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	PIT	7	7	42	177	30	14	5	100%	6.0	16.7%	8.1%	8.6%	2.9%	4.71	4.68	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	64	270	47	22	8	100%	5.8	17.5%	8.0%	9.4%	2.9%	4.62	4.60	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	74	312	55	25	9	100%	6.2	17.7%	8.1%	9.6%	2.9%	4.60	4.61	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	78	329	58	27	10	100%	6.0	17.6%	8.2%	9.4%	3.0%	4.65	4.68	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	77	325	57	27	10	100%	5.9	17.4%	8.4%	9.0%	3.1%	4.74	4.81	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	75	317	54	28	11	100%	6.2	17.1%	8.7%	8.3%	3.3%	4.88	4.97	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	68	410	1729	300	143	53	100%	6.0	17.4%	8.3%	9.1%	3.0%	4.70	4.35	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	147	70	26	100%	6.0	17.4%	8.3%	9.1%	3.0%	4.70	4.35	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		94	65	348	1572	245	178	61	69%	3.7	15.6%	11.3%	4.2%	3.9%	5.87	5.35	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	37	200	903	141	102	35	69%	3.7	15.6%	11.3%	4.2%	3.9%	5.87	5.35	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hung-Leng Chang (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	15.3%	8.3%	3.2%	—	4.76	17.3%	9.2%	289	-0.21	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	88
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	86
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	85
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	85
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	85
Carlos Frías R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP-	4.01	14.1%	7.2%	2.2%	.320	4.85	13.0%	2.6%	74	+0.84	3.58	204	85
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	84
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	84
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	84
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	83
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	83
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	83
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	83
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	82
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	82
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	82
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	81
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	81
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	81
Cesar Gomez R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	24	SP-	4.86	17.4%	7.5%	4.1%	.316	5.02	14.4%	4.6%	160	+0.16	4.11	345	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	89	17.1%	8.2%	1.26	4.85
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10