Capri Ortiz
SS Tri-City Dust Devils| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ASEA | 462 | .265/.361/.368 | 4 | 22 | 61 | — | .211/.285/.283 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+LAA | 399 | .229/.305/.322 | 5 | 27 | 47 | — | .199/.262/.276 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+LAA | 443 | .232/.294/.350 | 8 | 38 | 41 | — | .192/.244/.283 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBLAA | 1 | .194/.250/.278 | 0 | 0 | 50 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ25% MLB | 23 | MLBLAA | 105 | .200/.258/.298 | 2 | 4 | 57 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ36% MLB | 24 | MLBLAA | 170 | .205/.264/.311 | 3 | 7 | 63 | -0.0 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | — | 213 | 191 | 46 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 52 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 241 | 306 | 361 | 667 | 120 | 319 | 24 | 7 | 295 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Angels | — | 230 | 194 | 53 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 68 | 3 | 30 | 7 | 273 | 376 | 345 | 721 | 72 | 417 | 30 | 13 | 329 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 462 | 400 | 106 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 50 | 127 | 10 | 22 | 8 | 265 | 361 | 367 | 728 | 102 | 378 | 27 | 11 | 332 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 399 | 354 | 81 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 81 | 7 | 27 | 6 | 229 | 305 | 322 | 627 | 93 | 283 | 20 | 8 | 284 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 443 | 400 | 93 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 105 | 10 | 38 | 13 | 233 | 294 | 350 | 644 | 117 | 292 | 24 | 6 | 287 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 213 | 196 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 65 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 153 | 206 | 224 | 430 | 71 | 216 | 31 | 4 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 230 | 204 | 38 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 103 | 3 | 30 | 7 | 186 | 265 | 230 | 496 | 44 | 359 | 45 | 8 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 462 | 417 | 88 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 181 | 10 | 22 | 8 | 211 | 285 | 283 | 568 | 72 | 361 | 39 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 399 | 362 | 72 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 107 | 7 | 27 | 6 | 199 | 262 | 276 | 538 | 77 | 263 | 27 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 443 | 407 | 78 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 142 | 10 | 38 | 13 | 192 | 244 | 283 | 526 | 91 | 263 | 32 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 213 | 196 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 65 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 153 | 206 | 224 | 430 | 71 | 221 | 31 | 4 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Angels | — | 213 | 191 | 46 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 52 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 241 | 306 | 361 | 667 | 120 | 319 | 24 | 7 | 295 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 230 | 204 | 38 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 103 | 3 | 30 | 7 | 186 | 265 | 230 | 496 | 44 | 373 | 45 | 8 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Angels | — | 230 | 194 | 53 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 68 | 3 | 30 | 7 | 273 | 376 | 345 | 721 | 72 | 417 | 30 | 13 | 329 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 462 | 417 | 88 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 181 | 10 | 22 | 8 | 211 | 285 | 283 | 568 | 72 | 363 | 39 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 462 | 400 | 106 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 50 | 127 | 10 | 22 | 8 | 265 | 361 | 367 | 728 | 102 | 378 | 27 | 11 | 332 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 399 | 362 | 72 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 107 | 7 | 27 | 6 | 199 | 262 | 276 | 538 | 77 | 270 | 27 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ RAW | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 399 | 354 | 81 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 81 | 7 | 27 | 6 | 229 | 305 | 322 | 627 | 93 | 283 | 20 | 8 | 284 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 443 | 407 | 78 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 142 | 10 | 38 | 13 | 192 | 244 | 283 | 526 | 91 | 274 | 32 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 443 | 400 | 93 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 105 | 10 | 38 | 13 | 233 | 294 | 350 | 644 | 117 | 292 | 24 | 6 | 287 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 213 | 198 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 65 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 152 | 206 | 222 | 428 | 71 | 216 | 31 | 4 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 230 | 206 | 38 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 103 | 3 | 30 | 7 | 184 | 265 | 228 | 494 | 44 | 359 | 45 | 8 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 462 | 416 | 88 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 181 | 10 | 22 | 8 | 212 | 285 | 284 | 568 | 72 | 361 | 39 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 399 | 365 | 72 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 107 | 7 | 27 | 6 | 197 | 262 | 274 | 536 | 77 | 263 | 27 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 443 | 412 | 78 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 142 | 10 | 38 | 13 | 189 | 244 | 279 | 523 | 90 | 263 | 32 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 462 | 416 | 88 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 181 | 10 | 22 | 8 | 212 | 285 | 284 | 568 | 72 | 361 | 39 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 399 | 365 | 72 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 107 | 7 | 27 | 6 | 197 | 262 | 274 | 536 | 77 | 263 | 27 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 443 | 412 | 78 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 142 | 10 | 38 | 13 | 189 | 244 | 279 | 523 | 90 | 263 | 32 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | LAA | 0% | 553 | 510 | 100 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 160 | 9 | 23 | 7 | 195 | 252 | 280 | 532 | 85 | 268 | 29 | 5 | 242 | 50 | -33 | +2 | +4 | +6 | +12 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | LAA | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 250 | 278 | 528 | 84 | 266 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 50 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | LAA | 25% | 419 | 386 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 118 | 7 | 17 | 5 | 202 | 259 | 299 | 559 | 98 | 270 | 28 | 5 | 253 | 57 | -21 | +1 | +3 | +4 | +9 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | LAA | 36% | 467 | 429 | 88 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 130 | 8 | 19 | 6 | 206 | 265 | 312 | 578 | 106 | 272 | 28 | 6 | 261 | 63 | -21 | +1 | +4 | +5 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | LAA | 43% | 494 | 453 | 95 | 16 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 135 | 8 | 20 | 6 | 209 | 269 | 320 | 590 | 111 | 273 | 27 | 6 | 266 | 66 | -20 | +2 | +4 | +5 | +11 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | LAA | 47% | 507 | 463 | 98 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 138 | 8 | 20 | 6 | 211 | 272 | 324 | 596 | 114 | 274 | 27 | 6 | 269 | 68 | -19 | +2 | +4 | +5 | +11 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | LAA | 48% | 511 | 466 | 98 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 32 | 138 | 8 | 19 | 6 | 211 | 273 | 326 | 599 | 115 | 274 | 27 | 6 | 270 | 69 | -19 | +1 | +4 | +5 | +11 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | LAA | 25% | 105 | 96 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 258 | 298 | 556 | 97 | 268 | 29 | 6 | 252 | 57 | -5 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | LAA | 36% | 170 | 155 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 47 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 205 | 264 | 311 | 575 | 106 | 270 | 28 | 6 | 260 | 63 | -8 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | LAA | 43% | 212 | 194 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 58 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 208 | 268 | 319 | 587 | 111 | 271 | 27 | 6 | 265 | 66 | -9 | +0 | +2 | +2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | LAA | 47% | 236 | 215 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 64 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 209 | 271 | 323 | 594 | 114 | 271 | 27 | 6 | 268 | 68 | -9 | +1 | +2 | +3 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | LAA | 48% | 243 | 222 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 66 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 210 | 272 | 324 | 597 | 114 | 272 | 27 | 6 | 269 | 69 | -9 | +1 | +2 | +3 | +5 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 966 | 882 | 185 | 31 | 5 | 19 | 59 | 265 | 16 | 37 | 12 | 210 | 272 | 321 | 593 | 111 | 275 | 27 | 6 | 264 | 56 | -39 | +3 | +8 | +10 | +21 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 124 | 21 | 3 | 13 | 40 | 178 | 11 | 25 | 8 | 209 | 272 | 320 | 592 | 111 | 274 | 27 | 6 | 264 | 56 | -26 | +2 | +5 | +7 | +14 | 0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4355 | 3976 | 800 | 131 | 30 | 61 | 257 | 1318 | 77 | 237 | 74 | 201 | 263 | 295 | 558 | 94 | 282 | 30 | 6 | 251 | 56 | -113 | +8 | +21 | +28 | +57 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 119 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 197 | 11 | 35 | 11 | 201 | 261 | 293 | 555 | 93 | 282 | 30 | 6 | 251 | 56 | -28 | +2 | +5 | +7 | +14 | 0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 443 PAwOBA .282 → .229 (−52)K% 23.7% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.70% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 32.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 4.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.26% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 1.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.988 | ×1.027 | 20.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×1.027 | 5.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.988 | ×1.027 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 2.31% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .282 → .229; ISO .117 → .093; BABIP .292 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 399 PAwOBA .277 → .238 (−39)K% 20.3% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.30% | ÷1.019 | ×1.350 | — | — | 26.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.77% | ÷0.975 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 5.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.042 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.34% | ÷1.019 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×1.042 | 21.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.40% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×1.042 | 3.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.10% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.010 | ×1.042 | 1.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.042 | 1.58% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .277 → .238; ISO .093 → .080; BABIP .283 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AInland Empire 66ers · 462 PAwOBA .324 → .258 (−66)K% 27.5% → 39.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.49% | ÷0.957 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.61% | ÷1.057 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 7.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.16% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.30% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×1.045 | 28.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.49% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.045 | 4.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.139 | ×0.910 | ×1.009 | ×1.045 | 2.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.39% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 97, 2B 105, 3B 128, K 91, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .324 → .258; ISO .102 → .079; BABIP .378 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Angels · 230 PAwOBA .322 → .226 (−96)K% 29.6% → 44.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.57% | ÷0.955 | ×1.440 | — | — | 44.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.61% | ÷0.978 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 8.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.30% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.970 | ×0.820 | ×1.027 | ×1.022 | 29.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.35% | ÷1.001 | ×0.720 | ×1.027 | ×1.022 | 4.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.961 | ×0.720 | ×1.027 | ×1.022 | 1.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.910 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 94, 2B 100, 3B 92, K 91, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .322 → .226; ISO .072 → .047; BABIP .417 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Angels · 213 PAwOBA .289 → .191 (−98)K% 24.4% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.41% | ÷0.976 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.57% | ÷1.074 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 4.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.88% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.02% | ÷1.016 | ×0.680 | ×0.997 | ×1.022 | 15.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.04% | ÷0.863 | ×0.600 | ×0.997 | ×1.022 | 3.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.60% | ÷0.964 | ×0.600 | ×0.997 | ×1.022 | 2.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.44% | ÷0.801 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.86% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 60, 1B 103, 2B 73, 3B 93, K 95, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .289 → .191; ISO .120 → .076; BABIP .319 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).