Eliezer Rivero
C ACL Angels| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKLAA | 50 | .243/.404/.270 | 0 | 3 | 51 | — | .200/.319/.225 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROK2 orgs | 154 | .301/.392/.353 | 0 | 4 | 46 | — | .212/.294/.249 |
| 2026 | 21 | A/ROKLAA | 142 | .287/.406/.513 | 4 | 3 | 73 | — | .200/.298/.353 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBLAA | 252 | .190/.258/.280 | 3 | 4 | 53 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBLAA | 46 | .193/.262/.290 | 1 | 1 | 57 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBLAA | 96 | .197/.266/.300 | 2 | 2 | 61 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 41
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Angels | — | 76 | 67 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 284 | 360 | 328 | 688 | 45 | 345 | 16 | 7 | 316 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Angels | — | 52 | 45 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 244 | 333 | 289 | 622 | 44 | 355 | 29 | 8 | 288 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Angels | — | 50 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 243 | 404 | 270 | 675 | 27 | 333 | 22 | 16 | 312 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 16 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 250 | 200 | 450 | 333 | 38 | 6 | 213 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Angels | — | 138 | 118 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 314 | 409 | 373 | 782 | 59 | 451 | 26 | 7 | 361 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 35 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 257 | 242 | 500 | 30 | 389 | 43 | 3 | 233 | -9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | ACL Angels | — | 107 | 82 | 26 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 317 | 456 | 622 | 1.078 | 305 | 407 | 24 | 15 | 448 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 76 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 188 | 253 | 217 | 471 | 29 | 245 | 20 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 52 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 174 | 255 | 196 | 451 | 22 | 297 | 44 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 50 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 319 | 225 | 544 | 25 | 284 | 32 | 10 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 16 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 133 | 321 | 296 | 50 | 6 | 148 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 138 | 122 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 54 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 221 | 307 | 262 | 569 | 41 | 374 | 39 | 4 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 35 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 152 | 200 | 182 | 382 | 30 | 358 | 57 | 3 | 155 | -9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 107 | 88 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 37 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 330 | 409 | 739 | 193 | 297 | 35 | 9 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 76 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 188 | 253 | 217 | 471 | 29 | 241 | 20 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Angels | — | 76 | 67 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 284 | 360 | 328 | 688 | 45 | 345 | 16 | 7 | 316 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 52 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 174 | 255 | 196 | 451 | 22 | 333 | 44 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Angels | — | 52 | 45 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 244 | 333 | 289 | 622 | 44 | 355 | 29 | 8 | 288 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 50 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 319 | 225 | 544 | 25 | 320 | 32 | 10 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Angels | — | 50 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 243 | 404 | 270 | 675 | 27 | 333 | 22 | 16 | 312 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 154 | 137 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 62 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 212 | 294 | 248 | 542 | 36 | 387 | 40 | 4 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 154 | 133 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 301 | 392 | 353 | 746 | 53 | 440 | 27 | 6 | 345 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 142 | 122 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 58 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 197 | 290 | 344 | 634 | 148 | 333 | 41 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 142 | 115 | 33 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 41 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 287 | 406 | 513 | 919 | 226 | 403 | 29 | 12 | 395 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Angels | — | 76 | 70 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 186 | 253 | 214 | 468 | 29 | 245 | 20 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 52 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 170 | 255 | 191 | 446 | 21 | 297 | 44 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 50 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 186 | 319 | 209 | 528 | 23 | 284 | 32 | 10 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 154 | 137 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 62 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 212 | 294 | 248 | 542 | 36 | 366 | 40 | 4 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 142 | 125 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 58 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 192 | 290 | 336 | 626 | 144 | 312 | 41 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 50 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 186 | 319 | 209 | 528 | 23 | 284 | 32 | 10 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 154 | 137 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 62 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 212 | 294 | 248 | 542 | 36 | 366 | 40 | 4 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 142 | 125 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 58 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 192 | 290 | 336 | 626 | 144 | 312 | 41 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | LAA | 0% | 252 | 229 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 77 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 190 | 258 | 280 | 538 | 90 | 266 | 31 | 7 | 246 | 53 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | LAA | 34% | 133 | 121 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 194 | 263 | 292 | 555 | 98 | 268 | 30 | 7 | 253 | 57 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | LAA | 46% | 208 | 188 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 61 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 198 | 267 | 302 | 569 | 104 | 270 | 29 | 7 | 259 | 61 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | LAA | 52% | 271 | 245 | 50 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 79 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 201 | 271 | 309 | 580 | 108 | 272 | 29 | 7 | 263 | 64 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | LAA | 54% | 319 | 289 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 92 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 203 | 273 | 314 | 587 | 111 | 272 | 29 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | LAA | 54% | 342 | 310 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 98 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 204 | 274 | 316 | 591 | 112 | 273 | 29 | 7 | 268 | 67 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | LAA | 54% | 351 | 318 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 101 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 202 | 272 | 312 | 584 | 109 | 272 | 29 | 7 | 265 | 65 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | LAA | 53% | 348 | 315 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 101 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 200 | 269 | 305 | 575 | 105 | 270 | 29 | 7 | 261 | 63 | -15 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | LAA | 34% | 46 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 262 | 290 | 552 | 97 | 266 | 30 | 7 | 252 | 57 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | LAA | 46% | 96 | 87 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 197 | 266 | 300 | 566 | 103 | 268 | 29 | 7 | 258 | 61 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | LAA | 52% | 140 | 127 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 41 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 269 | 307 | 577 | 107 | 270 | 29 | 7 | 262 | 64 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | LAA | 54% | 173 | 156 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 50 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 272 | 313 | 585 | 111 | 270 | 29 | 7 | 265 | 66 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | LAA | 54% | 186 | 168 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 53 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 203 | 273 | 315 | 588 | 112 | 271 | 28 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | LAA | 54% | 190 | 171 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 55 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 271 | 310 | 581 | 109 | 270 | 29 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -8 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | LAA | 53% | 185 | 167 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 54 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 199 | 268 | 304 | 572 | 105 | 268 | 29 | 7 | 260 | 63 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1016 | 918 | 187 | 32 | 6 | 20 | 72 | 295 | 17 | 19 | 5 | 204 | 274 | 317 | 591 | 113 | 275 | 29 | 7 | 263 | 61 | -43 | +2 | -1 | +18 | +22 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 587 | 120 | 20 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 189 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 204 | 275 | 319 | 593 | 114 | 276 | 29 | 7 | 263 | 61 | -27 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2530 | 2277 | 456 | 86 | 13 | 38 | 171 | 772 | 55 | 50 | 17 | 200 | 272 | 300 | 572 | 99 | 282 | 31 | 7 | 259 | 61 | -88 | +3 | -2 | +37 | +45 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 117 | 22 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 198 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 200 | 272 | 299 | 571 | 99 | 281 | 30 | 7 | 259 | 61 | -28 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKACL Angels · 107 PAwOBA .445 → .316 (−129)K% 24.3% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.30% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 34.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 9.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.67% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.977 | ×0.985 | 15.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.977 | ×0.985 | 11.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.977 | ×0.985 | 2.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 5.49% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .445 → .316; ISO .305 → .223; BABIP .407 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 35 PAwOBA .227 → .155 (−72)K% 42.9% → 58.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 42.86% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 58.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 2.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 31.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 4.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .227 → .155; ISO .030 → .019; BABIP .389 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Angels · 138 PAwOBA .352 → .247 (−104)K% 26.1% → 38.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷0.969 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.52% | ÷1.082 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 3.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.25% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 5.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.59% | ÷1.015 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 30.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.54% | ÷0.992 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 6.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.134 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.873 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 127, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .352 → .247; ISO .059 → .040; BABIP .451 → .374. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AInland Empire 66ers · 16 PAwOBA .208 → .148 (−60)K% 37.5% → 50.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷1.008 | ×1.360 | — | — | 50.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 4.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 29.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 113, 2B 113, 3B 99, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .208 → .148; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Angels · 50 PAwOBA .311 → .243 (−68)K% 22.0% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.00% | ÷1.004 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 9.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷0.958 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 26.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.966 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.053 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.895 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 92, 2B 93, 3B 111, K 101, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .311 → .243; ISO .027 → .022; BABIP .333 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Angels · 52 PAwOBA .287 → .199 (−87)K% 28.8% → 43.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.85% | ÷0.955 | ×1.440 | — | — | 43.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷0.978 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 4.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 2.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.022 | 25.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.001 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 4.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.961 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.910 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 94, 2B 100, 3B 92, K 91, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .287 → .199; ISO .044 → .028; BABIP .355 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Angels · 76 PAwOBA .308 → .219 (−89)K% 15.8% → 19.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.79% | ÷0.976 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.58% | ÷1.074 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 4.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.95% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.09% | ÷1.016 | ×0.680 | ×1.032 | ×1.022 | 20.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷0.863 | ×0.600 | ×1.032 | ×1.022 | 4.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.964 | ×0.600 | ×1.032 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.801 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 60, 1B 103, 2B 73, 3B 93, K 95, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .308 → .219; ISO .045 → .033; BABIP .345 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).