Joneiker Arellano

P ACL Reds

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 155 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKCIN	5	1	14	3.77	1.91	26.7%	8.3%	—	K 18.1% · BB 10.4% · FIP 2.89
2025	20	ROKCIN	2	1	3	30.38	12.85	13.6%	9.1%	—	K 13.6% · BB 9.1% · FIP 8.09
2027PROJ	22	MLBCIN	1	1	8	4.36	4.36	23.2%	9.4%	0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBCIN	2	2	10	4.26	4.21	23.9%	8.9%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsCarson Rudd (age 22) · Hunter Gregory (age 23) · Casey Legumina (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%23.2%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP8

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	11	9	45	200	42	13	2	82%	4.1	14.3%	8.1%	6.2%	1.5%	4.43	3.75	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	11	9	45	200	42	13	2	82%	4.1	21.0%	6.5%	14.5%	1.0%	4.43	2.67	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	4	25	134	21	13	6	33%	2.1	10.7%	12.1%	-1.5%	5.9%	16.42	6.98	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	12	4	25	134	21	13	6	33%	2.1	15.7%	9.7%	6.0%	4.5%	16.42	6.14	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	5	1	14	60	16	5	0	20%	2.9	18.1%	10.4%	7.7%	0.0%	3.77	2.89	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	5	1	14	60	16	5	0	20%	2.9	18.1%	10.4%	7.7%	0.0%	3.77	2.89	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	5	1	14	60	16	5	0	20%	2.9	26.7%	8.3%	18.3%	0.0%	3.77	1.91	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	1	3	22	3	2	2	50%	1.3	13.6%	9.1%	4.5%	9.1%	30.38	8.09	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	1	3	22	3	2	2	50%	1.3	13.6%	9.1%	4.5%	9.1%	30.38	8.09	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	2	1	3	22	3	2	2	50%	1.3	13.6%	9.1%	4.5%	9.1%	30.38	12.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CIN	1	1	8	34	8	3	1	100%	8.0	23.2%	9.4%	13.8%	3.0%	4.36	4.36	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CIN	3	3	20	84	20	8	2	100%	6.7	23.9%	8.9%	15.0%	2.9%	4.26	4.21	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	CIN	2	2	10	42	10	4	1	100%	5.0	23.9%	8.9%	15.0%	2.9%	4.26	4.21	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	42	10	4	1	100%	4.9	23.9%	8.9%	15.0%	2.9%	4.26	3.82	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	203	81	20	100%	5.8	23.9%	8.9%	15.0%	2.9%	4.26	3.82	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		30	15	86	416	57	41	13	50%	2.9	13.6%	9.8%	3.8%	3.1%	8.55	4.90	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	35	200	964	131	94	30	50%	2.9	13.6%	9.8%	3.8%	3.1%	8.55	4.90	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joneiker Arellano (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	23.2%	9.4%	3.0%	—	4.21	23.9%	15.0%	20	-0.15	—	—	—
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	86
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	83
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	83
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.10	24.4%	11.8%	56	+0.75	2.93	103	83
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	80
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	592	80
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	78
Liam Simon R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SW	3.27	26.6%	11.9%	1.6%	.362	5.97	19.7%	-6.0%	84	+2.70	3.27	105	77
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	77
Yon Castro R 2021 · 3.20 FIP	22	SW	3.20	20.5%	8.5%	1.4%	.297	4.52	19.5%	8.8%	167	+1.32	3.20	274	77
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	76
Clay Chandler R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	4.89	14.8%	8.8%	293	-0.08	4.49	328	75
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	75
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	75
Jorge Juan R 2021 · 3.51 FIP	22	SP-	3.51	28.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.310	4.85	23.0%	4.7%	103	+1.34	3.48	238	75
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	75
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2019 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP-	4.48	17.6%	7.9%	3.4%	.343	6.27	19.2%	11.3%	197	+1.79	3.27	243	75
Daniel Bies R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	22	SW	3.96	24.5%	6.8%	3.8%	.339	3.17	20.3%	11.0%	89	-0.79	3.17	115	75
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	75
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	75