Bryan Bautista — OGILVIE

Bryan Bautista P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 16 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%21.5%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Orange	13	10	44	190	48	10	1	77%	3.4	17.2%	6.6%	10.6%	0.7%	4.33	2.88	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL BAL Orange	13	10	44	190	48	10	1	77%	3.4	25.3%	5.3%	20.0%	0.5%	4.33	1.89	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	6	6	20	83	18	10	1	100%	3.3	14.7%	15.1%	-0.3%	1.6%	3.60	4.66	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	6	6	20	83	18	10	1	100%	3.3	21.7%	12.0%	9.6%	1.2%	3.60	3.45	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	12	7	38	161	41	15	1	58%	3.2	17.3%	11.6%	5.7%	0.9%	4.74	3.59	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	12	7	38	161	41	15	1	58%	3.2	17.3%	11.6%	5.7%	0.9%	4.74	3.59	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	12	7	38	161	41	15	1	58%	3.2	25.5%	9.3%	16.1%	0.6%	4.74	2.47	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	29	141	38	23	0	0%	1.2	18.5%	20.3%	-1.8%	0.0%	6.91	4.11	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	29	141	38	23	0	0%	1.2	18.5%	20.3%	-1.8%	0.0%	6.91	4.11	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	29	141	38	23	0	0%	1.2	27.0%	16.3%	10.6%	0.0%	6.91	2.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	BAL	15	0	16	68	15	10	2	0%	1.1	21.5%	14.6%	7.0%	2.9%	5.09	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	25	0	26	111	25	14	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.8%	9.5%	2.9%	4.89	4.80	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.8%	9.5%	2.9%	4.89	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	48	11	6	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.8%	9.5%	2.9%	4.89	4.42	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	106	18	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.8%	9.5%	2.9%	4.89	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		54	23	130	575	99	72	4	43%	2.4	17.2%	12.6%	4.6%	0.7%	4.90	3.64	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	35	200	882	152	111	6	43%	2.4	17.2%	12.6%	4.6%	0.7%	4.90	3.64	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Bautista (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	21.5%	14.6%	2.9%	—	4.80	22.3%	9.5%	26	-0.29	—	—	—
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	82
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	80
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	79
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	79
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	78
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	78
Ryan Vanderhei R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.4%	14.1%	0.8%	.284	4.45	17.9%	2.9%	114	+0.50	3.75	152	76
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	76
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	76
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	76
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	76
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	76
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	75
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	75
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	450	75
Carlton Perkins R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	21	SW	4.16	18.6%	15.7%	1.2%	.356	4.88	18.2%	0.2%	66	+0.72	3.61	124	75
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	75
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	75
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	75
Heath Slatton R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SW	5.56	17.9%	12.9%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	120	74