Ethan Frey

OF Asheville Tourists

Age 23 R/R 6'4" / 225 lbs A+ HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #237MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP45ETA2029FG ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	AHOU	122	.330/.442/.470	3	9	108	—	.271/.350/.364
2026	22	A+HOU	291	.276/.369/.452	9	19	77	—	.226/.286/.370
2026	22	ROKHOU	22	.471/.571/.706	1	0	167	—	.368/.429/.579
2027PROJ0% MLB	23	MLBHOU	2	.215/.283/.356	0	0	78	-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBHOU	103	.219/.287/.367	3	2	83	-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBHOU	176	.222/.291/.375	5	3	86	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.8M2032Arb-2$0.7M2033Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Speed63

wOBA62

ISO62

BB%60

Chase%60

wRC+48

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 90%

CompsJordan Beck (age 23) · Jeremiah Jackson (age 23) · Steve Selsky (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .283 / .356

PA2

HR0

K%50

BB%8

BABIP299

ISO143

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$11M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 48 / POW 56

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT48

scouting grade only

POWER56

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED46

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	100	33	5	0	3	20	25	0	9	5	330	442	470	912	140	405	20	16	404	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	291	250	69	15	1	9	37	85	0	19	5	276	369	452	821	176	375	29	13	362	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	ROK	FCL Astros	—	22	17	8	1	0	1	4	4	0	0	0	471	571	706	1.277	235	538	18	18	527	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	107	29	4	0	2	13	34	0	9	5	271	350	364	714	93	368	28	11	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	291	265	60	12	1	8	22	111	0	19	5	226	286	370	656	143	334	38	8	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	22	19	7	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	368	429	579	1.008	211	417	27	9	415	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	107	29	4	0	2	13	34	0	9	5	271	350	364	714	93	370	28	11	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	100	33	5	0	3	20	25	0	9	5	330	442	470	912	140	405	20	16	404	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	313	284	66	13	1	8	24	117	0	19	5	232	292	370	662	137	354	37	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	313	267	77	16	1	10	41	89	0	19	5	288	383	468	851	180	387	28	13	373	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	108	29	4	0	2	13	34	0	9	5	269	350	361	711	93	368	28	11	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	313	286	66	13	1	8	24	117	0	19	5	231	292	367	659	136	340	37	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	122	108	29	4	0	2	13	34	0	9	5	269	350	361	711	93	368	28	11	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	313	286	66	13	1	8	24	117	0	19	5	231	292	367	659	136	340	37	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	423	384	82	15	2	12	34	138	2	10	3	213	281	354	635	141	295	33	8	284	78	-11	+1	-1	-3	+9	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	0%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	215	283	356	639	141	299	50	0	286	78	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	30%	341	308	66	12	1	10	28	109	2	7	2	217	285	366	651	149	296	32	8	290	83	-7	+1	-1	-2	+7	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	44%	398	360	80	14	2	13	33	125	2	7	2	220	289	374	662	154	296	31	8	295	86	-7	+1	-0	-2	+9	-0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	51%	433	392	87	16	2	14	36	134	2	8	2	222	291	379	670	157	295	31	8	298	88	-6	+1	-0	-3	+9	0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	449	407	89	16	2	14	37	138	2	8	2	222	291	378	669	156	294	31	8	298	88	-7	+1	-1	-3	+10	0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	455	412	91	17	2	14	38	139	2	7	2	221	291	375	665	153	293	31	8	296	87	-7	+1	-1	-3	+10	-0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	451	409	90	16	2	14	37	139	2	6	2	219	288	368	656	149	292	31	8	293	84	-8	+0	-2	-3	+10	-0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	445	404	87	16	2	13	36	139	2	6	3	216	284	360	645	145	289	31	8	288	81	-10	+0	-3	-3	+10	-0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	30%	103	93	20	4	0	3	8	33	1	2	1	219	287	367	655	148	300	32	8	292	83	-2	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	44%	176	159	35	7	1	5	14	55	1	3	1	222	291	375	666	153	300	31	8	297	86	-3	+0	-0	-1	+4	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	51%	220	199	44	8	1	7	18	68	1	4	1	224	293	381	674	157	300	31	8	300	88	-3	+0	-0	-1	+5	0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	235	212	47	9	1	7	20	72	1	4	1	224	293	380	673	155	299	31	9	299	88	-3	+0	-0	-1	+5	0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	243	220	48	9	1	7	20	74	1	4	1	223	293	376	669	153	298	30	8	298	87	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	237	214	47	9	1	7	20	73	1	3	1	221	290	370	660	149	296	31	8	294	84	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	232	210	47	9	1	7	19	72	1	3	1	218	286	362	648	144	294	31	8	290	81	-5	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1446	1307	288	55	6	43	119	447	7	23	7	220	289	370	659	150	297	31	8	296	85	-25	+2	-4	-9	+31	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	130	25	3	19	53	201	3	10	3	221	289	371	660	150	299	31	8	296	85	-11	+1	-2	-4	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3715	3362	745	135	15	111	307	1175	15	84	27	222	290	370	659	148	302	32	8	294	85	-60	+4	-9	-20	+71	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	131	24	3	19	54	206	3	15	5	223	291	371	662	148	305	32	8	294	85	-12	+1	-2	-4	+14	-0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.2	1,448	45	23	221	286	373	-9	-3	0.7	0.8
/162	664	21	11	-4.0	-1.3	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Ray Coleman'47-'52 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,902 PA	2.9	1,902	20	19	249*	297*	399*	-12	-1	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	7	7	-4.4	-0.4	-0.0	pk7: -0
#6Rip Russell'39-'47 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	29	4	236*	279*	389*	-16	-12	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	13	2	-6.9	-5.1	-1.2	pk7: -3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Frey (OGILVIE)	23	42→48	50→56	41→46	53	211/279/351	140	295	9	7	33%	8%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jordan Beck 2024 · AA	23	43→49	51→50	50	46	220/290/383	163	296	19	13	31%	9%	89	+0.5	226/286/364	138	314	14	16	31%	8%	83	+0.1	224/283/356	132	309	13	18	30%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Jeremiah Jackson 2023 · AA	23	38→48	49→55	48→55	42	201/265/351	150	272	17	12	32%	7%	73	-0.6	221/268/376	155	290	20	15	30%	6%	80	-0.2	231/272/390	159	293	20	15	28%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Steve Selsky 2012 · A	23	44→52	49→50	48→45	45	224/289/371	147	290	17	7	28%	8%	86	+0.3	237/296/363	126	316	12	9	28%	6%	86	+0.3	253/321/358	105	358	9	4	29%	7%	93	+0.4
✕Buddy Kennedy 2022 · AA	23	44→54	48→45	50	44	223/289/360	137	297	17	12	30%	8%	84	+0.1	235/315/352	117	303	10	8	24%	9%	91	+0.7	237/323/352	115	299	9	6	22%	10%	93	+0.7
✕Christian Franklin 2024 · A	24	43→52	44→45	46→55	46	205/298/323	118	303	12	12	33%	9%	79	-0.2	230/321/333	103	317	9	22	27%	11%	90	+0.6	232/328/329	97	317	8	25	26%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Wladimir Balentien 2007 · AA	23	41→48	52→60	48→50	40	212/274/383	170	300	20	10	35%	7%	84	+0.1	225/286/395	170	284	21	9	27%	8%	91	+0.6	226/288/399	173	273	21	8	25%	8%	92	+0.6
✕Jonathan Rodríguez 2014 · A	24	44→50	49→50	48→50	44	220/290/372	152	297	16	11	30%	8%	87	+0.4	225/286/338	113	301	12	9	28%	7%	77	-0.3	222/296/363	141	301	17	3	30%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Ezequiel Duran 2022 · A	23	41→51	51→55	50	37	208/267/368	160	305	19	14	37%	6%	78	-0.3	244/288/399	155	319	17	13	28%	5%	92	+0.7	254/295/406	151	322	16	12	25%	5%	95	+0.7
✕Devin Mann 2021 · A	24	44→45	49→50	44→45	46	224/292/371	148	289	17	7	28%	8%	87	+0.4	217/297/370	153	284	16	5	28%	8%	89	+0.5	213/299/370	157	281	17	4	29%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Rainel Rosario 2011 · A	22	43→51	46→50	46→50	45	210/287/351	140	302	12	8	32%	8%	81	-0.1	210/266/308	98	311	8	9	33%	6%	62	-1.4	246/301/378	133	280	16	6	18%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Sandro Fabian 2021 · A	23	41→48	45→55	46→45	39	207/265/323	116	281	13	6	30%	6%	66	-1.1	230/270/389	159	266	20	4	22%	4%	84	+0.1	234/282/398	164	262	19	4	19%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Dylan Crews 2024 · AA	22	48→47	47→50	42→55	40	232/299/364	132	324	14	11	31%	6%	88	+0.5	228/291/369	141	286	15	25	25%	7%	86	+0.3	223/289/367	144	276	16	26	24%	7%	84	+0.2
✕Tyler Saladino 2012 · A	23	44→47	47→45	45→55	43	220/285/365	145	296	13	7	29%	7%	83	+0.1	223/292/322	99	289	8	20	24%	8%	75	-0.5	258/304/376	118	306	11	25	19%	5%	91	+0.4
✕Jose Ramos 2024 · AA	23	42→44	49→50	47→45	41	212/281/356	144	311	18	6	36%	8%	80	-0.1	202/268/336	134	315	17	7	39%	8%	70	-0.8	194/263/327	133	302	17	7	39%	8%	64	-1.0
✕Michael Choice 2013 · AA	23	47→55	49→50	47→40	41	235/293/380	145	313	17	7	30%	6%	90	+0.6	230/297/352	122	305	14	4	28%	7%	84	+0.2	218/269/369	151	298	19	4	33%	5%	77	-0.2
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2007 · A	23	42→48	49→55	49→50	43	214/279/364	150	282	17	7	30%	7%	81	-0.1	207/261/376	169	259	21	9	28%	6%	77	-0.3	240/295/408	167	283	19	7	22%	7%	98	+0.8
✕Josh Elander 2014 · A	23	48→50	47→50	48→45	43	237/290/372	135	303	14	7	26%	6%	86	+0.3	219/283/325	106	292	9	9	26%	7%	73	-0.6	176/252/254	78	245	6	14	28%	8%	46	-0.7
✕Mike Wilson 2006 · A	23	43→53	48→55	50	44	217/286/361	144	276	16	7	27%	7%	83	+0.1	215/283/379	164	304	19	6	34%	7%	86	+0.3	225/299/392	167	287	21	9	28%	8%	91	+0.4
✕Travis Demeritte 2018 · AA	23	38→46	48→55	47→50	39	193/255/339	145	296	15	9	38%	7%	65	-1.2	209/276/372	163	301	18	7	35%	8%	82	-0.0	211/277/384	173	306	21	9	36%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Brennen Davis 2023 · AAA	23	41→43	47→50	43→45	42	204/289/341	137	303	15	7	36%	8%	80	-0.1	191/280/318	127	261	15	9	32%	7%	72	-0.7	188/287/362	173	236	23	4	30%	8%	83	+0.0

Ethan Frey

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps