Dylan Howard

P Asheville Tourists

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX3 levels	15	12	59	3.03	2.53	24.5%	8.2%	—	K 17.3% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.21
2026	23	A+HOU	23	23	98	6.98	6.97	19.7%	12.4%	—	K 15.2% · BB 14.2% · FIP 8.08
2027PROJ	24	MLBHOU	11	11	59	6.05	6.05	16.6%	12.8%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBHOU	6	6	38	5.75	5.66	18.2%	11.5%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBHOU	10	10	59	5.56	5.50	19.1%	11.2%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsAaron Heilman (age 24) · Jake Bockenstedt (age 24) · Joel Hanrahan (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.05

FIP6.05

K%16.6%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%3.8%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	12	59	245	60	20	2	80%	4.0	17.3%	8.7%	8.5%	0.8%	3.03	3.21	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	12	59	245	60	20	2	80%	4.0	17.3%	8.7%	8.5%	0.8%	3.03	3.21	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	12	59	245	60	20	2	80%	4.0	24.5%	8.2%	16.3%	0.8%	3.03	2.53	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	23	23	98	461	91	57	30	100%	4.3	15.2%	14.2%	1.0%	8.1%	6.98	8.08	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	23	23	98	461	91	57	30	100%	4.3	15.2%	14.2%	1.0%	8.1%	6.98	8.08	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	23	23	98	461	91	57	30	100%	4.3	19.7%	12.4%	7.4%	6.5%	6.98	6.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	HOU	11	11	59	249	41	32	11	100%	5.4	16.6%	12.8%	3.8%	4.3%	6.05	6.05	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	89	377	69	43	16	100%	6.0	18.2%	11.5%	6.7%	4.1%	5.75	5.66	-0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	89	377	72	42	15	100%	6.0	19.1%	11.2%	8.0%	4.0%	5.56	5.50	-0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	88	372	72	41	15	100%	5.9	19.3%	11.1%	8.2%	4.0%	5.48	5.48	-0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	85	361	69	40	15	100%	6.1	19.2%	11.2%	8.1%	4.1%	5.49	5.53	-0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	82	345	65	39	15	100%	5.8	19.0%	11.4%	7.6%	4.3%	5.59	5.66	-0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	77	324	67	35	14	100%	5.9	20.6%	10.9%	9.8%	4.5%	5.58	5.57	-0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	38	160	29	18	7	100%	6.3	18.2%	11.5%	6.7%	4.1%	5.75	5.66	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	59	249	48	28	10	100%	5.9	19.1%	11.2%	8.0%	4.0%	5.56	5.50	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	68	287	55	32	12	100%	6.2	19.3%	11.1%	8.2%	4.0%	5.48	5.48	-0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	72	304	58	34	13	100%	6.0	19.2%	11.2%	8.1%	4.1%	5.49	5.53	-0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	71	300	57	34	13	100%	5.9	19.0%	11.4%	7.6%	4.3%	5.59	5.66	-0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	69	291	60	32	13	100%	5.8	20.6%	10.9%	9.8%	4.5%	5.58	5.57	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	63	378	1596	308	178	67	100%	6.0	19.3%	11.2%	8.2%	4.2%	5.56	5.18	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	163	94	35	100%	6.0	19.3%	11.2%	8.2%	4.2%	5.56	5.18	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		38	35	157	706	112	87	40	92%	4.1	15.9%	12.3%	3.6%	5.6%	5.49	6.39	-3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	44	200	897	143	111	50	92%	4.1	15.9%	12.3%	3.6%	5.6%	5.49	6.39	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Howard (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.05	16.6%	12.8%	4.3%	—	5.55	18.9%	7.6%	267	-0.50	—	—	—
Aaron Heilman R 2003 · 5.57 FIP	24	SP	5.57	16.2%	12.4%	4.1%	.311	3.13	22.0%	14.1%	223	-2.44	2.76	630	90
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	88
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	88
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	85
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	84
Grant Judkins R 2022 · 6.22 FIP	24	SP	6.22	15.8%	13.4%	5.0%	.306	5.53	15.7%	6.6%	207	-0.69	5.13	322	83
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	83
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	82
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	82
Jason Grilli R 2001 · 5.93 FIP	24	SP	5.93	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	.296	6.24	12.8%	2.9%	45	+0.31	2.00	678	81
Grant Gambrell R 2021 · 6.84 FIP	23	SP	6.84	17.1%	9.6%	7.2%	.290	4.41	17.6%	8.8%	199	-2.43	3.86	294	81
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	81
Sam Wolff R 2016 · 5.72 FIP	25	SP	5.72	13.9%	15.0%	3.5%	.278	3.15	25.1%	15.5%	106	-2.57	2.66	178	80
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	80
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	80
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.22	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.02	3.57	306	80
Jason Hirsh R 2006 · 6.07 FIP	24	SP	6.07	14.1%	9.7%	5.3%	.253	4.96	15.5%	6.6%	112	-1.11	4.96	157	80
Rodrigo Lopez R 2000 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP	5.56	14.2%	10.8%	4.2%	.412	4.29	16.2%	9.7%	344	-1.27	4.06	1,344	79
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	79
Matt Kinney R 2000 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP	5.71	12.9%	12.9%	3.8%	.260	4.75	17.1%	7.6%	257	-0.96	4.02	390	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	81	18.9%	11.4%	1.62	5.62
Johnnie Wittig ('38-'49, -2 WAR*)	1.5	102	19.4%*	11.7%*	1.68*	5.81*
Win Ballou ('25-'29, -1 WAR*)	1.6	82	20.0%*	11.0%*	1.57*	4.99*
Wayne Franklin ('06)	1.6	81	14.8%	11.5%	1.59	5.54
Jack Kucek ('74-'80, -2 WAR*)	1.0	51	20.4%*	11.8%*	1.44*	5.37*
Collin Balester ('15)	1.0	50	17.4%	10.1%	1.75	5.47
Rocky Coppinger ('01)	1.2	60	19.3%	12.9%	1.79	5.47