Grant Gambrell
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AA
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION3 act + 64 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122112vR 103
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
K%19.7%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%10.3%
ROS IP64
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 13 | 13 | 55 | 252 | 56 | 21 | 13 | 100% | 4.3 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.02 | 7.39 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 13 | 13 | 55 | 252 | 56 | 21 | 13 | 100% | 4.3 | 22.2% | 8.3% | 13.9% | 5.2% | 6.02 | 5.27 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 126 | 536 | 134 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 4.0% | 3.63 | 4.81 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 126 | 536 | 134 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.0% | 8.6% | 16.4% | 3.2% | 3.63 | 3.82 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 18 | 16 | 84 | 369 | 65 | 34 | 6 | 89% | 4.6 | 15.5% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 4.09 | 4.01 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 18 | 16 | 84 | 369 | 65 | 34 | 6 | 89% | 4.6 | 17.6% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 1.6% | 4.09 | 3.70 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 2.7 | — | — | — | — | 10.12 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | KC | 60 | 0 | 64 | 268 | 53 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | KC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | KC | — | — | 66 | 282 | 55 | 27 | 7 | — | — | 19.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 4.75 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | KC | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.52 | 4.14 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 61 | 256 | 51 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 48 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.78 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | KC | 9 | 9 | 53 | 225 | 44 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | KC | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 24 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | KC | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 15 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 70 | 35 | 11 | 93% | 5.6 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.44 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 83 | 26 | 92% | 5.6 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 55 | 52 | 268 | 1171 | 206 | 111 | 49 | 95% | 4.9 | 17.6% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 4.33 | 5.10 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 39 | 200 | 874 | 154 | 83 | 36 | 95% | 4.9 | 17.6% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 4.33 | 5.10 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Gambrell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.78 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 171 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 80 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 79 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 79 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 78 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 78 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 77 |
| Tim Atherton R 2023 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.73 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 101 | 77 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.99 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 3.60 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.39 | 2.98 | 258 | 76 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 76 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 76 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.02 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .306 | 4.58 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.56 | 4.02 | 203 | 76 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 76 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.67 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 1.3% | .327 | 2.19 | 29.2% | 16.9% | 17 | -1.48 | 2.19 | 426 | 75 |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.14 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 470 | 75 |
| Iván Nova R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.43 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .283 | 4.19 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 510 | -0.24 | 3.90 | 810 | 75 |
| Chuck King R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.70 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 237 | 74 |
| Markus Solbach R 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 74 |
| Andrew Triggs R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.29 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 3.3% | .288 | 4.57 | 23.6% | 13.7% | 41 | +0.28 | 1.66 | 242 | 74 |
| Tyler Herron R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.29 | 13.4% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .389 | 4.17 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 60 | -0.12 | 4.17 | 117 | 74 |
| Cole Johnson R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.48 | 14.0% | 4.8% | 1.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 101 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 59 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 1.17 | 4.65 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |