Grant Gambrell — OGILVIE

Grant Gambrell P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%16.6%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	13	13	55	252	56	21	13	100%	4.3	17.1%	9.6%	7.5%	7.2%	6.02	6.84	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	13	13	55	252	56	21	13	100%	4.3	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	5.2%	6.02	5.27	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	126	536	134	46	17	100%	5.5	19.4%	9.2%	10.2%	3.9%	3.63	4.80	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	126	536	134	46	17	100%	5.5	19.4%	9.2%	10.2%	3.9%	3.63	4.80	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	126	536	134	46	17	100%	5.5	25.0%	8.6%	16.4%	3.2%	3.63	3.82	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	18	16	84	369	65	34	6	89%	4.6	14.6%	8.3%	6.3%	1.8%	4.09	3.90	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	18	16	84	369	65	34	6	89%	4.6	14.6%	8.3%	6.3%	1.8%	4.09	3.90	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	18	16	84	369	65	34	6	89%	4.6	17.6%	9.2%	8.4%	1.6%	4.09	3.70	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	11	7	40	176	39	14	8	64%	3.6	17.9%	8.8%	9.2%	5.5%	6.13	5.69	—
YTD	28	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	11	7	40	176	39	14	8	64%	3.6	17.9%	8.8%	9.2%	5.5%	6.13	5.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	KC	11	7	40	176	39	14	8	64%	3.6	22.2%	8.0%	14.2%	4.5%	6.13	4.73	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	KC	1	1	5	23	4	2	1	100%	5.4	16.6%	8.7%	8.0%	2.7%	4.68	4.68	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	45	199	43	16	9	—	—	21.5%	8.0%	13.5%	4.3%	5.95	5.57	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	61	256	44	23	7	100%	6.1	17.1%	8.9%	8.1%	2.9%	4.72	4.78	+0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	57	241	41	22	8	100%	5.7	17.2%	9.3%	7.9%	3.1%	4.82	4.92	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	KC	3	3	19	80	14	7	2	100%	6.3	17.1%	8.9%	8.1%	2.9%	4.72	4.78	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	5	5	29	122	21	11	4	100%	5.8	17.2%	9.3%	7.9%	3.1%	4.82	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	48	204	35	19	6	100%	6.0	17.2%	9.1%	8.0%	3.0%	4.78	4.48	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	145	79	25	100%	6.0	17.2%	9.1%	8.0%	3.0%	4.78	4.48	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		65	59	305	1333	233	120	56	91%	4.7	17.4%	9.0%	8.5%	4.2%	4.51	5.05	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	39	200	874	152	78	36	91%	4.7	17.4%	9.0%	8.5%	4.2%	4.51	5.05	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Gambrell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	16.6%	8.7%	2.7%	—	4.85	17.1%	8.0%	118	+0.17	—	—	—
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	84
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	81
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	80
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	79
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	79
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	79
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	78
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	78
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	77
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	76
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	76
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	76
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	76
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	76
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	75
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	75
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	75
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	75
Felipe Paulino R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	31	SP	4.55	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.93	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.38	4.55	150	74
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	17.0%	9.0%	1.13	4.74
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43