Grant Gambrell
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.7
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.7%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%10.3%
IP91
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 13 | 13 | 55 | 252 | 56 | 21 | 13 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.02 | 6.95 | -1.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 23 | 23 | 126 | 536 | 134 | 46 | 17 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 3.63 | 4.80 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 18 | 16 | 84 | 369 | 65 | 34 | 6 | 15.5% | 9.7% | 1.8% | 4.09 | 4.00 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 91 | 383 | 75 | 36 | 11 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 74 | 35 | 11 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.54 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 86 | 363 | 72 | 34 | 11 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 15 | 83 | 350 | 69 | 33 | 10 | 19.6% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.63 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 80 | 337 | 72 | 29 | 10 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.44 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 68 | 28 | 10 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.54 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 63 | 28 | 10 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 59 | 27 | 10 | 20.4% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 54 | 26 | 9 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.82 | 4.90 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 54 | 52 | 265 | 1157 | 204 | 109 | 47 | 17.7% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 4.27 | 5.01 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 39 | 200 | 872 | 154 | 82 | 35 | 17.7% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 4.27 | 5.01 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Gambrell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.58 | 19.7% | 10.4% | 258 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 91 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 89 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 86 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 85 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 84 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 84 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 84 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 84 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 83 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 82 |
| Tim Atherton R 2023 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 82 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.69 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.74 | 3.69 | 283 | 81 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 81 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.48 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% | .333 | 4.46 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | -0.02 | 3.70 | 381 | 81 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.0% | .274 | 4.61 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.33 | 3.40 | 556 | 80 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2029 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 80 |
| Iván Nova R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .283 | 4.33 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 510 | +0.03 | 4.13 | 810 | 80 |
| Brett Sears R 2023 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 80 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 2.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 448 | 80 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.