Brian Arias — OGILVIE

Brian Arias P Tampa Tarpons

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 177 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 17 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.07

FIP6.07

K%18.4%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-1.6%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 2	8	6	16	79	19	13	1	75%	2.0	16.4%	20.6%	-4.2%	1.7%	6.19	5.24	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees 2	8	6	16	79	19	13	1	75%	2.0	24.1%	16.5%	7.6%	1.3%	6.19	3.98	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	7	5	18	79	19	11	1	71%	2.6	16.4%	17.4%	-1.1%	1.5%	4.00	4.74	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	7	5	18	79	19	11	1	71%	2.6	24.1%	13.9%	10.1%	1.3%	4.00	3.54	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	2	2	3	12	3	2	0	100%	1.3	25.0%	16.7%	8.3%	0.0%	3.38	3.10	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	2	2	3	12	3	2	0	100%	1.3	25.0%	16.7%	8.3%	0.0%	3.38	3.10	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	4	1	4	19	3	3	0	25%	1.0	15.8%	15.8%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	3.77	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	4	1	4	19	3	3	0	25%	1.0	15.8%	15.8%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	3.77	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	4	1	4	19	3	3	0	25%	1.0	15.8%	15.8%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	3.85	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	28	157	32	31	2	0%	1.1	14.4%	24.0%	-9.5%	1.7%	10.61	5.83	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	28	157	32	31	2	0%	1.1	14.4%	24.0%	-9.5%	1.7%	10.61	5.83	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	28	157	32	31	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	19.7%	0.6%	1.3%	10.61	5.06	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYY	16	0	17	72	13	14	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	20.0%	-1.6%	2.9%	6.07	6.07	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	25	0	26	109	22	18	3	0%	1.0	19.8%	16.8%	3.0%	2.9%	5.68	5.54	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	10	0	11	46	9	8	1	0%	1.1	19.8%	16.8%	3.0%	2.9%	5.68	5.54	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	47	9	8	1	0%	1.0	19.8%	16.8%	3.0%	2.9%	5.68	5.16	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	145	18	0%	1.1	19.8%	16.8%	3.0%	2.9%	5.68	5.16	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		46	14	69	346	54	73	5	30%	1.5	15.8%	21.0%	-5.2%	1.5%	7.34	5.24	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	41	200	1008	159	212	15	30%	1.5	15.8%	21.0%	-5.2%	1.5%	7.34	5.24	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brian Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.07	18.4%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.54	19.8%	3.0%	26	-0.53	—	—	—
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	88
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	83
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	82
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	82
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	82
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	81
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	81
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	81
Franklyn German R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.313	5.27	13.1%	0.1%	86	+0.10	3.37	152	81
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	81
Jake Eddington R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	23	SW	5.02	18.8%	24.1%	0.8%	.316	4.83	16.6%	-1.5%	105	-0.19	4.70	135	80
Drake Fellows R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	25	SW	5.66	17.1%	20.4%	2.6%	.367	4.88	14.6%	5.6%	271	-0.78	4.28	282	80
Josh Wolf R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	23	SU	5.28	18.4%	20.1%	2.2%	.344	5.77	18.5%	-5.0%	57	+0.49	4.16	226	80
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	80
Derrick Turnbow R 2000 · 6.58 FIP	22	SU	6.58	13.8%	19.9%	3.9%	.257	1.43	28.3%	22.6%	15	-5.15	1.43	245	79
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	79
Zach Barnes R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	18.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.378	5.03	15.0%	1.5%	119	-0.32	4.90	145	79
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	79
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	79
Michael Blazek R 2013 · 5.52 FIP	24	SU	5.52	16.7%	15.5%	3.4%	.241	3.81	19.8%	10.3%	97	-1.71	2.99	238	79