Jose Aular
C FCL Mets| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROKDSL Mets Blue | 90 | .234/.344/.351 | 1 | 0 | 24 | — | .150/.244/.238 |
| 2024 | 20 | ROKDSL Mets Blue | 55 | .278/.527/.389 | 0 | 1 | 86 | — | .171/.382/.244 |
| 2025 | 21 | ROKNYM | 58 | .182/.368/.182 | 0 | 0 | 24 | — | .146/.281/.146 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBNYM | 168 | .204/.297/.274 | 1 | 2 | 67 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBNYM | 19 | .202/.294/.277 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBNYM | 60 | .204/.296/.287 | 1 | 1 | 73 | 0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | — | 20 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 368 | 267 | 635 | 67 | 250 | 20 | 5 | 300 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | — | 98 | 89 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 258 | 327 | 292 | 619 | 34 | 311 | 15 | 5 | 289 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets Blue | — | 90 | 77 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 344 | 351 | 695 | 117 | 279 | 17 | 11 | 321 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Mets Blue | — | 55 | 36 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 527 | 389 | 916 | 111 | 333 | 11 | 27 | 435 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | FCL Mets | — | 58 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 368 | 182 | 550 | 250 | 22 | 17 | 283 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 20 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 368 | 267 | 635 | 67 | 168 | 25 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 98 | 90 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 189 | 255 | 222 | 477 | 33 | 218 | 18 | 4 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets Blue | — | 90 | 80 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 244 | 237 | 482 | 87 | 179 | 21 | 8 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets Blue | — | 55 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 382 | 244 | 626 | 73 | 212 | 15 | 18 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 58 | 48 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 281 | 146 | 427 | 205 | 33 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 20 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 368 | 267 | 635 | 67 | 273 | 25 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Mets 1 | — | 20 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 368 | 267 | 635 | 67 | 250 | 20 | 5 | 300 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 98 | 90 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 189 | 255 | 222 | 477 | 33 | 236 | 18 | 4 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Mets 1 | — | 98 | 89 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 258 | 327 | 292 | 619 | 34 | 311 | 15 | 5 | 289 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets Blue | — | 90 | 80 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 244 | 237 | 482 | 87 | 183 | 21 | 8 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Mets Blue | — | 90 | 77 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 344 | 351 | 695 | 117 | 279 | 17 | 11 | 321 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets Blue | — | 55 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 382 | 244 | 626 | 73 | 212 | 15 | 18 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK RAW | DSL Mets Blue | — | 55 | 36 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 527 | 389 | 916 | 111 | 333 | 11 | 27 | 435 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 58 | 48 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 281 | 146 | 427 | 233 | 33 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK RAW | FCL Mets | — | 58 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 368 | 182 | 550 | 250 | 22 | 17 | 283 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 368 | 250 | 618 | 62 | 168 | 25 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 1 | — | 98 | 90 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 189 | 255 | 222 | 477 | 33 | 218 | 18 | 4 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets Blue | — | 90 | 80 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 244 | 237 | 482 | 87 | 179 | 21 | 8 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets Blue | — | 55 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 382 | 244 | 626 | 73 | 212 | 15 | 18 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 58 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 281 | 143 | 424 | 205 | 33 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets Blue | — | 55 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 382 | 244 | 626 | 73 | 212 | 15 | 18 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 58 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 281 | 143 | 424 | 205 | 33 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | NYM | 0% | 168 | 146 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 47 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 297 | 274 | 571 | 70 | 287 | 28 | 10 | 267 | 67 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | NYM | 30% | 64 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 300 | 286 | 586 | 78 | 289 | 28 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | NYM | 44% | 137 | 120 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 302 | 296 | 597 | 85 | 289 | 27 | 9 | 276 | 73 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYM | 51% | 196 | 172 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 53 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 213 | 303 | 304 | 606 | 91 | 289 | 27 | 9 | 279 | 75 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | NYM | 52% | 240 | 211 | 45 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 64 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 213 | 303 | 306 | 609 | 93 | 288 | 27 | 9 | 280 | 76 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | NYM | 53% | 273 | 241 | 52 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 73 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 213 | 301 | 307 | 608 | 94 | 288 | 27 | 9 | 280 | 75 | -8 | -0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | NYM | 53% | 285 | 252 | 52 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 77 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 210 | 299 | 300 | 599 | 90 | 286 | 27 | 9 | 276 | 73 | -9 | -0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | NYM | 56% | 291 | 257 | 53 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 80 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 295 | 292 | 587 | 85 | 284 | 27 | 9 | 271 | 70 | -11 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | NYM | 30% | 19 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 294 | 277 | 572 | 76 | 280 | 26 | 11 | 266 | 70 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | NYM | 44% | 60 | 53 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 296 | 287 | 583 | 83 | 280 | 27 | 10 | 270 | 73 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYM | 51% | 99 | 88 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 297 | 295 | 592 | 88 | 280 | 27 | 9 | 274 | 75 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | NYM | 52% | 126 | 111 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 297 | 297 | 595 | 90 | 280 | 27 | 10 | 274 | 76 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | NYM | 53% | 145 | 128 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 296 | 298 | 594 | 91 | 279 | 27 | 9 | 274 | 75 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | NYM | 53% | 150 | 132 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 293 | 292 | 585 | 87 | 277 | 27 | 9 | 270 | 73 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | NYM | 56% | 164 | 145 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 290 | 284 | 573 | 82 | 275 | 27 | 9 | 266 | 70 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 763 | 674 | 138 | 20 | 5 | 10 | 71 | 207 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 205 | 294 | 294 | 588 | 89 | 278 | 27 | 9 | 271 | 66 | -24 | +1 | -2 | +14 | +17 | 0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 574 | 118 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 60 | 176 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 206 | 294 | 296 | 590 | 91 | 278 | 27 | 9 | 271 | 66 | -21 | +1 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1836 | 1609 | 328 | 51 | 14 | 18 | 168 | 479 | 46 | 11 | 6 | 204 | 297 | 287 | 584 | 83 | 277 | 26 | 9 | 266 | 66 | -48 | +0 | -4 | +27 | +33 | 0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 570 | 116 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 59 | 170 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 204 | 296 | 284 | 580 | 81 | 277 | 26 | 9 | 266 | 66 | -21 | +0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 ROKFCL Mets · 58 PAwOBA .283 → .203 (−79)K% 22.4% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.41% | ÷1.007 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.24% | ÷0.988 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 10.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.17% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.81% | ÷0.987 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 21.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.927 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .283 → .203; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Mets Blue · 55 PAwOBA .426 → .295 (−131)K% 10.9% → 13.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.91% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 27.27% | ÷1.067 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 17.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.27% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 5.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷1.035 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.985 | 15.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.001 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.985 | 3.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.985 | 2.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 107, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .426 → .295; ISO .111 → .081; BABIP .333 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Mets Blue · 90 PAwOBA .314 → .204 (−110)K% 16.7% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.971 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.049 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 7.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.74% | ÷1.074 | ×0.680 | ×1.040 | ×0.995 | 11.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷0.976 | ×0.600 | ×1.040 | ×0.995 | 6.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×1.040 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.61% | ÷0.868 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.87% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 115, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .314 → .204; ISO .117 → .071; BABIP .279 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Mets 1 · 98 PAwOBA .282 → .198 (−84)K% 15.3% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.31% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.10% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.08% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.38% | ÷1.016 | ×0.680 | ×1.046 | ×1.008 | 20.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.046 | ×1.008 | 0.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×1.046 | ×1.008 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 102, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .282 → .198; ISO .034 → .023; BABIP .311 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Mets 1 · 20 PAwOBA .308 → .220 (−88)K% 20.0% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.952 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 15.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 10.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷0.971 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.022 | 13.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.078 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 5.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 94, 2B 116, 3B 82, K 90, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .308 → .220; ISO .067 → .041; BABIP .250 → .168. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).