John Garcia
C Asheville Tourists| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+HOU | 333 | .293/.373/.480 | 10 | 9 | 70 | — | .220/.283/.357 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAHOU | 319 | .189/.315/.268 | 4 | 9 | 40 | — | .163/.264/.225 |
| 2026 | 25 | AA/A+HOU | 322 | .257/.352/.357 | 5 | 15 | 54 | — | .208/.274/.283 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBHOU | 1 | .197/.269/.282 | 0 | 0 | 56 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ26% MLB | 27 | MLBHOU | 43 | .198/.271/.286 | 1 | 1 | 58 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 26 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 269 | 304 | 574 | 130 | 333 | 42 | 0 | 268 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Astros Blue | — | 27 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 185 | 185 | 26 | 11 | 132 | -58 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 88 | 72 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 306 | 425 | 403 | 828 | 97 | 400 | 20 | 9 | 378 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 294 | 237 | 47 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 36 | 74 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 198 | 349 | 300 | 649 | 101 | 267 | 25 | 12 | 309 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 333 | 294 | 86 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 86 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 293 | 373 | 480 | 853 | 187 | 382 | 26 | 8 | 378 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 319 | 265 | 50 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 40 | 91 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 189 | 315 | 268 | 583 | 79 | 266 | 29 | 13 | 276 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 61 | 55 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 164 | 233 | 291 | 524 | 127 | 212 | 34 | 8 | 235 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 261 | 225 | 63 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 54 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 280 | 379 | 373 | 753 | 93 | 357 | 21 | 11 | 347 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 26 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 231 | 217 | 448 | 87 | 300 | 58 | 0 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros Blue | — | 27 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 148 | 148 | 37 | 7 | 82 | -58 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 88 | 75 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 240 | 345 | 307 | 651 | 67 | 329 | 27 | 6 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 294 | 248 | 41 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 99 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 165 | 291 | 242 | 533 | 77 | 246 | 34 | 9 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 333 | 305 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 114 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 220 | 283 | 357 | 641 | 138 | 310 | 34 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 319 | 276 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 107 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 163 | 264 | 225 | 489 | 62 | 239 | 34 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 61 | 57 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 123 | 167 | 193 | 360 | 70 | 188 | 43 | 5 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 261 | 237 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 71 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 228 | 299 | 304 | 603 | 76 | 308 | 27 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 53 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 65 | 189 | 109 | 297 | 43 | 150 | 49 | 4 | 128 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 53 | 45 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 89 | 226 | 156 | 382 | 67 | 148 | 34 | 6 | 199 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 382 | 323 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 123 | 26 | 8 | 6 | 183 | 303 | 257 | 560 | 74 | 280 | 32 | 8 | 252 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 382 | 309 | 69 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 44 | 92 | 26 | 8 | 6 | 223 | 367 | 324 | 690 | 100 | 301 | 24 | 12 | 325 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 333 | 305 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 114 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 220 | 283 | 357 | 641 | 138 | 321 | 34 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 333 | 294 | 86 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 86 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 293 | 373 | 480 | 853 | 187 | 382 | 26 | 8 | 378 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 319 | 276 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 107 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 163 | 264 | 225 | 489 | 62 | 249 | 34 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 319 | 265 | 50 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 40 | 91 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 189 | 315 | 268 | 583 | 79 | 266 | 29 | 13 | 276 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 294 | 61 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 96 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 207 | 274 | 282 | 556 | 75 | 292 | 30 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 322 | 280 | 72 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 75 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 257 | 352 | 357 | 709 | 100 | 333 | 23 | 10 | 326 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 53 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 65 | 189 | 109 | 297 | 43 | 147 | 49 | 4 | 128 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 382 | 323 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 123 | 26 | 8 | 6 | 183 | 303 | 257 | 560 | 74 | 265 | 32 | 8 | 252 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 333 | 303 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 114 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 221 | 283 | 360 | 643 | 139 | 310 | 34 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 319 | 278 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 107 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 162 | 264 | 223 | 487 | 61 | 239 | 34 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 292 | 61 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 96 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 209 | 274 | 284 | 558 | 75 | 285 | 30 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 333 | 303 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 114 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 221 | 283 | 360 | 643 | 139 | 310 | 34 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 319 | 278 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 107 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 162 | 264 | 223 | 487 | 61 | 239 | 34 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 292 | 61 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 96 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 209 | 274 | 284 | 558 | 75 | 285 | 30 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | HOU | 0% | 372 | 335 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 113 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 194 | 267 | 278 | 545 | 84 | 273 | 30 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -19 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | HOU | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 269 | 282 | 551 | 85 | 277 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 56 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | HOU | 26% | 164 | 148 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 49 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 196 | 269 | 282 | 551 | 86 | 273 | 30 | 7 | 253 | 58 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | HOU | 26% | 43 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 271 | 286 | 557 | 87 | 277 | 30 | 7 | 256 | 58 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 43 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 279 | 308 | 587 | 103 | 280 | 30 | 7 | 256 | 53 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 121 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 45 | 197 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 205 | 278 | 307 | 585 | 102 | 280 | 30 | 7 | 256 | 53 | -33 | +3 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1728 | 1532 | 290 | 57 | 3 | 22 | 119 | 562 | 65 | 49 | 15 | 189 | 276 | 273 | 550 | 84 | 280 | 33 | 7 | 247 | 53 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +7 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 108 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 45 | 211 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 188 | 274 | 269 | 544 | 82 | 277 | 32 | 7 | 247 | 53 | -33 | +2 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Asheville Tourists · 261 PAwOBA .337 → .264 (−73)K% 20.7% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 27.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 6.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.07% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 2.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 24.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 1.49% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .337 → .264; ISO .093 → .075; BABIP .357 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 61 PAwOBA .233 → .181 (−52)K% 34.4% → 42.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.43% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 16.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 2.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.65% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .233 → .181; ISO .127 → .095; BABIP .212 → .188. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 319 PAwOBA .272 → .227 (−45)K% 28.5% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.53% | ÷1.036 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.54% | ÷0.948 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 9.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.82% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 2.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.26% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 19.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.17% | ÷0.930 | ×0.840 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.940 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.30% | ÷1.057 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.74% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 96, 2B 86, 3B 90, K 107, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .272 → .227; ISO .079 → .064; BABIP .266 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Asheville Tourists · 333 PAwOBA .369 → .271 (−98)K% 25.8% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.83% | ÷0.991 | ×1.310 | — | — | 34.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.11% | ÷0.977 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 4.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.30% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 2.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.48% | ÷0.988 | ×0.870 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 22.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.10% | ÷1.079 | ×0.780 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 7.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 0.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.81% | ÷1.073 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 3.90% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 98, 2B 116, 3B 100, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .369 → .271; ISO .187 → .135; BABIP .382 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 294 PAwOBA .304 → .242 (−62)K% 25.2% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.17% | ÷1.016 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.24% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.46% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 4.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.02% | ÷0.972 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | ×0.990 | 18.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | ×0.990 | 6.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.022 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.45% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 1.96% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 94, 2B 100, 3B 100, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .304 → .242; ISO .101 → .079; BABIP .267 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Asheville Tourists · 88 PAwOBA .373 → .284 (−89)K% 20.5% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.45% | ÷0.971 | ×1.310 | — | — | 27.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.033 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 5.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.95% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 6.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.63% | ÷0.968 | ×0.870 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 25.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.26% | ÷1.099 | ×0.780 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 6.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.980 | ×0.850 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 1.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.218 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 94, 2B 120, 3B 96, K 94, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .373 → .284; ISO .097 → .070; BABIP .400 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Astros Blue · 27 PAwOBA .130 → .082 (−48)K% 25.9% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.93% | ÷0.968 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.039 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 6.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.41% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 5.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.003 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.112 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.058 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 122, K 94, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .130 → .082; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 26 PAwOBA .261 → .176 (−85)K% 42.3% → 58.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 42.31% | ÷0.976 | ×1.360 | — | — | 58.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.999 | ×0.690 | — | — | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 11.54% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 9.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | — | — | 7.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.930 | ×0.830 | — | — | 22.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .261 → .176; ISO .130 → .081; BABIP .333 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).