Tucker Biven — OGILVIE

Tucker Biven P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%22.5%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	4	0	4	19	6	3	0	0%	1.0	31.6%	15.8%	15.8%	0.0%	2.25	2.43	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	4	0	4	19	6	3	0	0%	1.0	31.6%	15.8%	15.8%	0.0%	2.25	2.43	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	4	0	4	19	6	3	0	0%	1.0	31.6%	15.8%	15.8%	0.0%	2.25	2.35	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	33	5	43	184	49	18	2	15%	1.3	19.8%	11.4%	8.4%	1.5%	4.15	3.68	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	33	5	43	184	49	18	2	15%	1.3	19.8%	11.4%	8.4%	1.5%	4.15	3.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	WSH	1	0	1	5	3	0	0	0%	1.0	60.0%	0.0%	60.0%	0.0%	9.00	-1.97	—
2026	22	A RAW	WSH	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.57	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	WSH	30	5	40	171	44	17	2	17%	1.3	25.7%	9.9%	15.8%	1.2%	4.02	2.83	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	WSH	42	0	44	186	43	17	5	0%	1.0	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	2.9%	4.37	4.30	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	WSH	21	0	22	93	22	9	3	0%	1.0	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	2.9%	4.37	4.30	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	0	22	92	21	9	3	0%	1.0	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	2.9%	4.37	3.92	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	83	28	0%	1.1	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	2.9%	4.37	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		37	5	47	203	42	24	3	14%	1.3	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	1.3%	3.99	3.56	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	21	200	858	179	102	11	14%	1.3	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	1.3%	3.99	3.56	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tucker Biven (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	22.5%	10.0%	3.0%	—	4.30	23.3%	13.9%	44	-0.18	—	—	—
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	90
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	88
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	88
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	87
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	87
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	86
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	85
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	85
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	85
RJ Petit R 2022 · 4.43 FIP	22	SU	4.43	20.3%	8.4%	3.6%	.270	3.44	22.2%	12.7%	177	-0.99	3.08	231	84
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	84
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	84
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	84
Jacob Rhame R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	22	SU	3.98	23.0%	9.9%	2.9%	.240	3.61	24.4%	17.8%	182	-0.37	2.78	251	84
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	84
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	84
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	84
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	23.0%	9.6%	1.14	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64