Natanael Polanco

Natanael Polanco P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 17 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 129

ERA5.92

FIP5.92

K%19.6%

BB%19.7%

K-BB%-0.2%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	13	4	19	95	16	15	1	31%	1.5	11.5%	19.7%	-8.3%	1.1%	8.53	5.21	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	13	4	19	95	16	15	1	31%	1.5	16.8%	15.8%	1.1%	1.1%	8.53	4.47	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	27	113	21	4	3	0%	1.8	15.0%	3.2%	11.8%	4.3%	3.67	4.58	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	27	113	21	4	3	0%	1.8	18.6%	3.5%	15.0%	2.7%	3.67	3.43	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	20	95	15	17	0	0%	1.2	10.9%	20.1%	-9.2%	0.0%	4.95	4.72	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	20	95	15	17	0	0%	1.2	15.8%	17.9%	-2.1%	0.0%	4.95	4.15	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	17	0	20	83	16	12	1	0%	1.2	13.1%	18.1%	-5.0%	1.9%	1.35	5.31	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	17	0	20	83	16	12	1	0%	1.2	13.1%	18.1%	-5.0%	1.9%	1.35	5.31	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	17	0	20	83	16	12	1	0%	1.2	19.3%	14.5%	4.8%	1.2%	1.35	3.95	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	1	46	206	46	41	3	4%	2.0	13.8%	26.7%	-12.9%	0.8%	5.63	5.78	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	1	46	206	46	41	3	4%	2.0	13.8%	26.7%	-12.9%	0.8%	5.63	5.78	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	1	46	206	46	41	3	4%	2.0	22.3%	19.9%	2.4%	1.5%	5.63	4.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIA	16	0	17	72	14	14	2	0%	1.1	19.6%	19.7%	-0.2%	2.9%	5.92	5.92	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIA	40	0	42	178	37	30	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	16.7%	3.8%	2.9%	5.58	5.46	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIA	17	0	18	76	16	13	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	16.7%	3.8%	2.9%	5.58	5.46	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	76	16	13	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	16.7%	3.8%	2.9%	5.58	5.08	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	144	22	0%	1.1	20.5%	16.7%	3.8%	2.9%	5.58	5.08	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		85	5	132	592	78	112	9	6%	1.6	13.1%	18.9%	-5.7%	1.5%	4.90	5.23	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	8	200	895	117	169	14	6%	1.6	13.1%	18.9%	-5.7%	1.5%	4.90	5.23	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Natanael Polanco (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.92	19.6%	19.7%	2.9%	—	5.46	20.5%	3.8%	42	-0.46	—	—	—
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	88
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	88
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	86
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	86
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	84
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	84
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	84
Michael Blazek R 2013 · 5.52 FIP	24	SU	5.52	16.7%	15.5%	3.4%	.241	3.81	19.8%	10.3%	97	-1.71	2.99	238	84
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	83
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	83
Connor Cooke R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	24	SU	5.02	17.4%	17.0%	2.2%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	103	83
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	82
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	82
Chad Harville R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	26	SU	5.17	17.3%	15.4%	2.9%	.328	4.84	17.6%	6.5%	142	-0.33	4.51	178	82
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	82
Kelvin Vasquez R 2017 · 6.26 FIP	24	SU	6.26	15.0%	23.2%	2.7%	.247	5.06	14.5%	-0.2%	48	-1.20	5.01	180	82
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	82
Will McAffer R 2021 · 6.40 FIP	24	SU	6.40	21.5%	24.2%	3.7%	.343	5.37	14.5%	-5.7%	33	-1.03	4.68	133	82
Alec Hansen R 2019 · 5.74 FIP	24	SU	5.74	18.8%	19.8%	3.1%	.349	4.98	29.5%	-5.0%	22	-0.76	3.34	288	81
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	20.2%	17.6%	1.12	5.68
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88