Andrew Dutkanych IV

P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 230 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	9	9	18	4.08	3.61	32.5%	14.3%	—	K 26.3% · BB 20.0% · FIP 5.89
2026	23	MIX2 levels	15	11	46	5.67	4.14	27.2%	15.3%	—	K 19.8% · BB 16.1% · FIP 4.69
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	3	3	19	5.20	5.20	21.7%	15.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSTL	3	3	18	4.99	4.91	22.3%	13.4%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 90%

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Eriq Swan (age 22) · Zach Linginfelter (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%21.7%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%6.5%

Proj IP19

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	18	77	25	11	2	100%	2.0	26.3%	20.0%	6.3%	4.5%	4.08	5.89	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	18	77	25	11	2	100%	2.0	26.3%	20.0%	6.3%	4.5%	4.08	5.89	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	18	77	25	11	2	100%	2.0	32.5%	14.3%	18.2%	2.6%	4.08	3.61	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	11	46	202	55	31	5	73%	3.1	19.8%	16.1%	3.7%	2.2%	5.67	4.69	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	11	46	202	55	31	5	73%	3.1	19.8%	16.1%	3.7%	2.2%	5.67	4.69	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	11	46	202	55	31	5	73%	3.1	27.2%	15.3%	11.9%	2.5%	5.67	4.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	3	3	19	80	17	12	2	100%	6.3	21.7%	15.2%	6.5%	3.0%	5.20	5.20	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	7	7	42	177	39	24	5	100%	6.0	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	2.9%	4.99	4.91	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	3	3	18	76	17	10	2	100%	6.0	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	2.9%	4.99	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	18	76	17	10	2	100%	6.0	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	2.9%	4.99	4.53	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	112	22	100%	5.9	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	2.9%	4.99	4.53	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		24	20	64	279	60	48	8	83%	2.7	21.6%	17.2%	4.4%	2.9%	5.23	5.02	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	63	200	876	189	150	25	83%	2.7	21.6%	17.2%	4.4%	2.9%	5.23	5.02	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Dutkanych IV (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	21.7%	15.2%	3.0%	—	4.91	22.3%	8.8%	42	-0.29	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	82
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	80
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	78
Ryan Harvey R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	18.4%	15.9%	0.9%	.291	4.74	16.2%	7.8%	56	+0.66	4.08	133	76
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	75
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	75
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	74
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	74
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	74
Shawn Hill R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP	4.26	19.6%	13.7%	2.0%	.450	3.70	14.5%	8.6%	134	-0.56	2.96	239	74
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	74
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	74
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	73
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	73
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	73
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	72
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	72
Jackson Fristoe R 2024 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP	4.81	18.8%	19.6%	1.5%	.266	6.79	13.5%	-4.0%	74	+1.98	4.81	139	72
Logan Boyer R 2021 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	17.0%	12.7%	4.2%	.306	3.71	25.0%	12.7%	27	-1.89	3.71	121	72
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	22.1%	14.0%	1.14	5.06
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68