Chase Renner

P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	AMIA	6	0	7	2.57	4.81	17.1%	22.9%	—	K 17.1% · BB 22.9% · FIP 4.55
2026	22	MIX3 levels	15	1	20	5.31	5.61	30.8%	15.4%	—	K 23.5% · BB 23.4% · FIP 9.89
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIA	8	0	8	5.51	5.51	23.4%	17.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIA	9	0	9	5.23	5.12	24.0%	14.6%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsMorgan McSweeney (age 23) · Kasey Ford (age 23) · CJ Weins (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.51

FIP5.51

K%23.4%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%6.4%

Proj IP8

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	6	0	7	35	6	8	0	0%	1.2	17.1%	22.9%	-5.7%	0.0%	2.57	4.55	—
2025	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	6	0	7	35	6	8	0	0%	1.2	17.1%	22.9%	-5.7%	0.0%	2.57	4.55	—
2025	21	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	6	0	7	35	6	8	0	0%	1.2	17.1%	22.9%	-5.7%	0.0%	2.57	4.81	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	1	20	91	28	14	5	7%	1.4	23.5%	23.4%	0.1%	10.6%	5.31	9.89	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	1	20	91	28	14	5	7%	1.4	23.5%	23.4%	0.1%	10.6%	5.31	9.89	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	1	20	91	28	14	5	7%	1.4	30.8%	15.4%	15.4%	5.5%	5.31	5.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIA	8	0	8	34	8	6	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	17.1%	6.4%	3.4%	5.51	5.51	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	19	0	20	84	20	12	3	0%	1.1	24.0%	14.6%	9.3%	3.3%	5.23	5.12	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	9	0	9	38	9	6	1	0%	1.0	24.0%	14.6%	9.3%	3.3%	5.23	5.12	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	9	5	1	0%	1.1	24.0%	14.6%	9.3%	3.3%	5.23	4.74	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	209	116	23	0%	1.1	24.0%	14.6%	9.3%	3.3%	5.23	4.74	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		21	1	27	126	27	29	10	5%	1.3	21.7%	23.2%	-1.5%	7.7%	4.61	8.41	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	7	200	922	200	214	71	5%	1.3	21.7%	23.2%	-1.5%	7.7%	4.61	8.41	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Renner (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	23.4%	17.1%	3.4%	—	5.12	24.0%	9.3%	20	-0.39	—	—	—
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	89
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	88
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	87
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	86
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	86
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	85
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	85
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	85
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	84
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	84
Saul Teran R 2024 · 5.21 FIP	22	SU	5.21	22.4%	18.8%	2.9%	.279	4.40	20.1%	10.7%	84	-0.81	2.28	166	84
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	84
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	84
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	84
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	83
Isaac Gallegos R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	22.9%	17.8%	1.8%	.267	3.09	19.9%	10.5%	106	-1.31	2.89	125	83
Travis Kuhn R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	23	SU	5.96	22.0%	15.6%	5.0%	.246	3.43	20.6%	9.2%	168	-2.53	2.71	246	83
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	83
Carlos Contreras R 2014 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	20.2%	18.1%	2.0%	.304	4.35	18.4%	5.0%	107	-0.42	4.29	127	83
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	83