Sam Stuhr — OGILVIE

Sam Stuhr P Stockton Ports

+0.2 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.4 · 2029

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.5%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%10.0%

IP96

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2029

K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	A	Stockton Ports	25	16	96	440	92	47	10	15.5%	12.6%	2.6%	6.59	4.83	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A	Stockton Ports	2	1	8	28	6	1	0	—	—	—	1.12	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	OAK	17	17	96	404	83	42	12	20.5%	10.5%	2.9%	4.69	4.69	+0.6
2026 Total	23	MLB	OAK	—	—	104	432	89	43	12	20.5%	10.1%	2.7%	4.41	4.33	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	OAK	21	21	114	482	102	47	14	21.2%	9.7%	2.9%	4.56	4.51	+1.0
2028	25	MLB	OAK	23	23	128	538	117	50	16	21.7%	9.2%	2.9%	4.46	4.41	+1.3
2029	26	MLB	OAK	24	24	134	568	124	52	16	21.9%	9.1%	2.9%	4.41	4.38	+1.4
2030	27	MLB	OAK	25	25	138	581	127	53	17	21.9%	9.1%	2.9%	4.39	4.38	+1.4
2031	28	MLB	OAK	25	25	137	580	127	53	17	21.9%	9.2%	2.9%	4.40	4.41	+1.4
2032	29	MLB	OAK	24	24	134	567	123	52	17	21.8%	9.2%	3.0%	4.43	4.45	+1.3
2033	30	MLB	OAK	24	24	130	550	119	51	17	21.6%	9.3%	3.1%	4.48	4.52	+1.2
2034	31	MLB	OAK	23	23	126	531	113	50	17	21.3%	9.4%	3.1%	4.55	4.59	+1.0
2035	32	MLB	OAK	22	22	121	510	107	49	16	21.0%	9.6%	3.2%	4.63	4.68	+0.8
2036	33	MLB	OAK	21	21	115	487	101	48	16	20.7%	9.8%	3.3%	4.72	4.77	+0.7
2037	34	MLB	OAK	20	20	110	462	94	46	16	20.4%	10.0%	3.4%	4.82	4.88	+0.5
2038	35	MLB	OAK	19	19	103	436	87	44	15	20.0%	10.2%	3.5%	4.93	5.01	+0.3
2039	36	MLB	OAK	18	18	96	407	80	43	15	19.6%	10.5%	3.6%	5.06	5.14	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			27	17	104	468	74	56	12	15.8%	12.1%	2.5%	6.16	4.64	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—			52	33	200	903	143	108	23	15.8%	12.1%	2.5%	6.16	4.64	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Stuhr (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	20.5%	10.5%	2.9%	—	4.43	21.6%	12.3%	376	-0.26	—	—	—
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	93
Zach McCambley R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.4%	13.6%	3.3%	.277	3.30	25.0%	12.6%	123	-1.69	2.58	314	93
Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	92
Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP-	4.78	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.31	14.0%	1.0%	106	+0.53	3.85	291	92
Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	91
Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.77	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.59	1.92	778	91
Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP-	4.80	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	4.97	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.17	4.68	326	90
Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	90
Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.78	18.8%	6.8%	146	+0.51	4.27	238	90
Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP-	4.24	20.9%	14.1%	2.0%	.310	5.78	16.4%	3.7%	225	+1.54	2.86	357	90
Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.85	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.23	3.77	350	90
Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	16.6%	11.6%	2.1%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	199	90
Levi Stoudt R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	23	SP-	4.60	19.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.257	5.68	16.1%	5.2%	289	+1.08	4.35	395	90
Levi Thomas R 2026 · 5.33 FIP	23	SP-	5.33	18.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.17	5.16	116	89
Derek True R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	23	SP-	4.91	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.96	16.6%	4.6%	60	+0.05	4.91	157	89
Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	17.9%	10.9%	2.5%	.285	4.64	14.8%	4.8%	153	+0.30	3.44	393	89
Max Bain R 2026 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP-	5.17	20.5%	15.2%	3.4%	.291	6.72	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.55	5.17	174	89
Brett Daniels R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	18.5%	12.1%	1.6%	.266	4.47	21.4%	7.9%	152	+0.52	3.95	270	89
Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	89
Carlos Sano R 2028 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP-	4.88	17.6%	11.2%	3.4%	.282	9.12	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.24	4.88	105	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.3	$12M	+$11M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+1.2	$12M	+$11M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+1.0	$10M	+$9M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.9	$5M	+$3M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$52M	+$47M