Jay Dill

P Midland RockHounds

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 240 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AOAK	6	8	3.52	1.93	36.4%	15.2%	—	K 36.4% · BB 15.2% · FIP 1.95
2026	23	MIX3 levels	46	55	3.79	3.78	26.0%	13.6%	—	K 19.5% · BB 15.1% · FIP 4.77
2027PROJ	24	MLBOAK	34	36	5.20	5.20	19.9%	14.1%	-0.3
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBOAK	21	22	5.00	4.93	20.7%	12.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBOAK	31	33	4.90	4.86	21.1%	12.3%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsGrayson Thurman (age 24) · Max Alba (age 24) · Bryce McGowan (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%19.9%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%5.8%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	6	0	8	33	12	5	0	0%	1.3	36.4%	15.2%	21.2%	0.0%	3.52	1.95	—
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	6	0	8	33	12	5	0	0%	1.3	36.4%	15.2%	21.2%	0.0%	3.52	1.95	—
2025	22	A RAW	Stockton Ports	6	0	8	33	12	5	0	0%	1.3	36.4%	15.2%	21.2%	0.0%	3.52	1.93	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	55	250	65	34	5	0%	1.2	19.5%	15.1%	4.5%	2.6%	3.79	4.77	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	55	250	65	34	5	0%	1.2	19.5%	15.1%	4.5%	2.6%	3.79	4.77	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	0	55	250	65	34	5	0%	1.2	26.0%	13.6%	12.4%	2.0%	3.79	3.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	OAK	34	0	36	152	30	21	4	0%	1.1	19.9%	14.1%	5.8%	2.9%	5.20	5.20	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	47	0	50	210	44	26	6	0%	1.1	20.7%	12.6%	8.2%	2.9%	5.00	4.93	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	47	0	50	210	44	26	6	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.3%	8.9%	2.9%	4.90	4.86	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	21	0	22	93	19	12	3	0%	1.0	20.7%	12.6%	8.2%	2.9%	5.00	4.93	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	31	0	33	139	29	17	4	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.3%	8.9%	2.9%	4.90	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	55	233	49	29	7	0%	1.0	21.0%	12.4%	8.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	105	25	0%	1.1	21.0%	12.4%	8.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		52	0	62	283	61	43	6	0%	1.2	21.5%	15.1%	6.4%	2.3%	3.75	4.44	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	0	200	908	195	137	21	0%	1.2	21.5%	15.1%	6.4%	2.3%	3.75	4.44	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jay Dill (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	19.9%	14.1%	2.9%	—	4.89	20.9%	8.5%	100	-0.31	—	—	—
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	94
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	91
Bryce McGowan R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	24	SU	5.11	19.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.304	3.71	18.8%	6.7%	55	-1.40	3.71	178	90
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	90
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	90
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	90
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	90
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	89
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	89
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	89
Morgan McSweeney R 2022 · 5.16 FIP	24	SU	5.16	18.0%	13.9%	3.3%	.278	4.31	16.6%	6.6%	107	-0.85	3.20	213	88
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	88
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.54	19.0%	8.4%	155	-0.01	3.33	268	88
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	87
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	87
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	87
Alejandro Torres R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SU	4.38	20.5%	14.5%	2.1%	.221	6.08	17.6%	-0.9%	82	+1.70	4.38	123	87
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	87
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	87
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	20.6%	12.9%	1.13	5.02
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57