Dalton Pence

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #664MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP41ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	31	18	82	2.73	2.37	31.5%	8.3%	—	K 23.8% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.36
2026	23	MIX3 levels	25	23	118	2.51	3.68	24.9%	9.8%	—	K 20.2% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.37
2027PROJ	24	MLBTEX	13	13	74	4.57	4.57	20.5%	9.7%	0.3
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBTEX	8	8	47	4.61	4.58	21.1%	9.2%	0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBTEX	12	12	72	4.56	4.54	21.3%	9.0%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff49Control52Command50FB velo57

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 8, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 78%

CompsJimmy Robbins (age 24) · Brian Holmes (age 24) · Hayden Mullins (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%20.5%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL—55

CMD4050

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	18	82	327	103	27	5	58%	2.7	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	1.9%	2.73	3.36	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	18	82	327	103	27	5	58%	2.7	23.8%	9.6%	14.2%	1.9%	2.73	3.36	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	18	82	327	103	27	5	58%	2.7	31.5%	8.3%	23.2%	1.5%	2.73	2.37	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	118	490	122	48	13	92%	4.7	20.2%	10.0%	10.3%	3.1%	2.51	4.37	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	118	490	122	48	13	92%	4.7	20.2%	10.0%	10.3%	3.1%	2.51	4.37	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	23	118	490	122	48	13	92%	4.7	24.9%	9.8%	15.1%	2.7%	2.51	3.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TEX	13	13	74	312	64	30	9	100%	5.7	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	2.9%	4.57	4.57	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	108	455	96	42	13	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.2%	11.9%	2.9%	4.49	4.46	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	108	455	97	41	13	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	2.9%	4.44	4.42	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	106	448	96	41	13	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.45	4.45	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	103	435	92	40	13	100%	6.1	21.2%	9.2%	12.1%	3.1%	4.50	4.53	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	98	415	87	39	13	100%	6.2	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	3.2%	4.60	4.66	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	92	391	81	38	13	100%	6.2	20.7%	9.7%	10.9%	3.4%	4.74	4.84	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	86	364	74	37	13	100%	6.2	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	3.6%	4.92	5.04	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	47	198	42	18	6	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.2%	11.9%	3.1%	4.61	4.58	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	72	304	65	28	10	100%	6.0	21.3%	9.0%	12.3%	3.1%	4.56	4.54	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	82	346	74	31	11	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	3.2%	4.57	4.57	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	87	367	78	34	12	100%	6.2	21.2%	9.2%	12.1%	3.3%	4.63	4.66	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	86	363	76	34	13	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	3.5%	4.73	4.79	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	83	350	72	34	13	100%	5.9	20.7%	9.7%	10.9%	3.7%	4.88	4.98	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	79	334	68	34	13	100%	6.1	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	3.9%	5.07	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	90	537	2268	476	213	78	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	3.4%	4.73	4.39	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	177	79	29	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	3.4%	4.73	4.39	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		56	41	201	817	177	80	22	73%	3.6	21.7%	9.8%	11.8%	2.6%	2.60	3.97	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	41	200	814	176	80	22	73%	3.6	21.7%	9.8%	11.8%	2.6%	2.60	3.97	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dalton Pence (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	20.5%	9.7%	2.9%	—	4.44	21.3%	12.2%	322	-0.13	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	89
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	86
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	86
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	85
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	85
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	81
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	81
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	80
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	79
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	79
Carson Teel L 2019 · 3.43 FIP	23	SP-	3.43	17.2%	8.8%	1.2%	.292	4.86	16.9%	10.0%	144	+1.43	3.43	248	79
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	78
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	78
Odalis Perez L 2001 · 3.77 FIP	24	SP-	3.77	17.0%	9.3%	1.7%	.336	3.91	17.5%	12.8%	604	+0.14	3.40	1,324	78
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	78
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	77
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	77
Ixan Henderson L 2024 · 3.77 FIP	22	SP-	3.77	18.1%	11.1%	1.5%	.280	3.27	20.4%	9.9%	132	-0.50	3.27	236	77
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	77
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	97	21.0%	9.4%	1.21	4.58
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Sheldon Jones ('46-'53, 4 WAR*)	4.6	115	19.9%*	9.3%*	1.23*	4.23*
Ed Rakow ('60-'67, 3 WAR*)	3.8	127	19.8%*	8.9%*	1.22*	4.66*
Bill Fleming ('40-'46, 1 WAR*)	2.2	74	19.1%*	9.6%*	1.22*	4.54*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86