Greysen Carter

P Tampa Tarpons

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 237 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	15	13	55	5.43	5.22	17.9%	24.5%	—	K 12.8% · BB 30.0% · FIP 6.13
2026	23	ANYY	33	0	52	4.35	4.32	25.3%	18.5%	—	K 18.7% · BB 21.8% · FIP 5.50
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYY	35	0	37	5.96	5.96	18.9%	20.0%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBNYY	20	0	21	5.61	5.48	20.0%	16.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBNYY	31	0	33	5.42	5.36	20.6%	16.3%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJordan Brink (age 23) · Brett Lockwood (age 24) · Jake Eddington (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.96

FIP5.96

K%18.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-1.1%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	55	273	49	67	1	87%	3.6	12.8%	30.0%	-17.2%	0.6%	5.43	6.13	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	13	55	273	49	67	1	87%	3.6	12.8%	30.0%	-17.2%	0.6%	5.43	6.13	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	13	55	273	49	67	1	87%	3.6	17.9%	24.5%	-6.6%	0.4%	5.43	5.22	—
2026	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	33	0	52	233	59	43	4	0%	1.6	18.7%	21.8%	-3.0%	2.2%	4.35	5.50	—
2026	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	33	0	52	233	59	43	4	0%	1.6	18.7%	21.8%	-3.0%	2.2%	4.35	5.50	—
2026	23	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	33	0	52	233	59	43	4	0%	1.6	25.3%	18.5%	6.9%	1.7%	4.35	4.32	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYY	35	0	37	156	29	31	4	0%	1.1	18.9%	20.0%	-1.1%	2.8%	5.96	5.96	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	47	0	50	210	42	36	6	0%	1.1	20.0%	16.9%	3.1%	2.8%	5.61	5.48	-0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	47	0	50	210	43	34	6	0%	1.1	20.6%	16.3%	4.3%	2.8%	5.42	5.36	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	20	0	21	89	18	15	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	16.9%	3.1%	2.8%	5.61	5.48	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	31	0	33	139	29	23	4	0%	1.1	20.6%	16.3%	4.3%	2.8%	5.42	5.36	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	54	229	47	38	6	0%	1.0	20.3%	16.5%	3.8%	2.8%	5.49	5.02	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	140	22	0%	1.1	20.3%	16.5%	3.8%	2.8%	5.49	5.02	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		48	13	106	506	78	133	7	27%	2.2	15.5%	26.2%	-10.7%	1.3%	4.91	5.84	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	24	200	952	148	249	13	27%	2.2	15.5%	26.2%	-10.7%	1.3%	4.91	5.84	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Greysen Carter (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.96	18.9%	20.0%	2.8%	—	5.42	20.3%	3.7%	100	-0.54	—	—	—
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	84
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	83
Jake Eddington R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	23	SW	5.02	18.8%	24.1%	0.8%	.316	4.83	16.6%	-1.5%	105	-0.19	4.70	135	83
Yoel Espinal R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	21.4%	23.1%	2.1%	.255	4.24	22.9%	10.0%	99	-1.13	3.86	231	82
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	82
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	81
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	81
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	81
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	81
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	81
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	81
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	80
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	80
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	80
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	79
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	79
Kelvin Vasquez R 2017 · 6.26 FIP	24	SU	6.26	15.0%	23.2%	2.7%	.247	5.06	14.5%	-0.2%	48	-1.20	5.01	180	79
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	79
Austin Glorius R 2017 · 6.09 FIP	24	SU	6.09	18.7%	21.0%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	141	78
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	19.9%	17.5%	1.09	5.64
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*