Tommy Molsky
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 179 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 104
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
K%21.8%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%9.6%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.00 | 6.72 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.00 | 7.10 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 40 | 0 | 62 | 264 | 74 | 29 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 0.5% | 3.03 | 3.15 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 40 | 0 | 62 | 264 | 74 | 29 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 28.0% | 11.0% | 17.0% | 0.4% | 3.03 | 2.33 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 30 | 0 | 36 | 176 | 31 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 14.3% | 20.6% | -6.4% | 3.4% | 7.75 | 6.38 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 57 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 4.58 | 4.58 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 4.58 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 98 | 436 | 88 | 65 | 12 | — | — | 20.1% | 14.9% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.75 | 5.24 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 21.8% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 4.58 | 4.20 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 60 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 4.45 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 62 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 63 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 4.28 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 62 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 59 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 27 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 4.45 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 42 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 50 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 4.28 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 53 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 53 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 220 | 0 | 231 | 973 | 224 | 102 | 26 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 3.93 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 88 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 72 | 0 | 101 | 454 | 84 | 71 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.5% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 4.88 | 4.51 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 142 | 0 | 200 | 896 | 166 | 139 | 16 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.5% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 4.88 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tommy Molsky (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 21.8% | 12.2% | 2.5% | — | 4.30 | 22.9% | 12.3% | 191 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Max Alba R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 93 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 92 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.97 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.89 | 4.08 | 168 | 92 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.31 | 3.10 | 218 | 92 |
| Abel De Los Santos R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 21.6% | 12.1% | 1.7% | .273 | 4.00 | 22.0% | 13.3% | 37 | +0.25 | 3.75 | 152 | 92 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 92 |
| Brett Standlee R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.1% | .322 | 4.33 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.33 | 4.00 | 128 | 91 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 91 |
| Alex Palsha R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 91 |
| Bailey Dees R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.23 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .248 | 4.32 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 278 | +0.09 | 3.40 | 330 | 91 |
| Hunter Dula R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 1.9% | .340 | 4.49 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.64 | 3.85 | 132 | 90 |
| Luke Bell R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 90 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 89 |
| Kyle Marman R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.98 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .270 | 5.27 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.29 | 3.98 | 117 | 89 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .350 | 3.78 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 93 | -0.38 | 2.79 | 164 | 89 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 22.7% | 13.6% | 1.5% | .270 | 4.00 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 108 | +0.29 | 3.58 | 169 | 89 |
| Kelvin Ramirez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 20.4% | 11.5% | 3.0% | .307 | 4.97 | 21.3% | 2.2% | 89 | +0.47 | 3.36 | 219 | 89 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 88 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 88 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 88 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 63 | 22.8% | 10.8% | 1.01 | 4.38 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Archie Bradley ('21) | 6 | 74 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 0.85 | 3.93 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |