Tommy Molsky — OGILVIE

Tommy Molsky P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 179 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%21.8%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	2	0	3	14	2	1	1	0%	1.5	14.3%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	9.00	6.72	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	2	0	3	14	2	1	1	0%	1.5	14.3%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	9.00	6.72	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	2	0	3	14	2	1	1	0%	1.5	14.3%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	9.00	7.10	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	40	0	62	264	74	29	1	0%	1.6	21.6%	12.6%	9.0%	0.5%	3.03	3.14	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	40	0	62	264	74	29	1	0%	1.6	21.6%	12.6%	9.0%	0.5%	3.03	3.14	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	40	0	62	264	74	29	1	0%	1.6	28.0%	11.0%	17.0%	0.4%	3.03	2.33	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	46	0	56	269	53	41	12	0%	1.2	14.9%	18.4%	-3.5%	5.7%	7.99	7.28	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	46	0	56	269	53	41	12	0%	1.2	14.9%	18.4%	-3.5%	5.7%	7.99	7.28	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	KC	6	0	9	36	10	2	1	0%	1.5	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	2.8%	4.00	2.98	—
2026	23	AA RAW	KC	40	0	47	233	43	39	11	0%	1.2	18.5%	16.7%	1.7%	4.7%	8.75	6.25	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	KC	5	0	5	22	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.7%	9.1%	2.5%	4.63	4.63	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	62	291	58	44	13	—	—	19.9%	15.0%	4.8%	4.3%	7.70	7.06	-1.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	KC	60	0	63	266	60	30	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.4%	11.1%	2.6%	4.50	4.43	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	61	0	64	270	62	29	7	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.6%	12.3%	2.6%	4.37	4.30	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	61	0	64	270	63	28	7	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.5%	12.7%	2.6%	4.31	4.28	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	60	0	63	266	62	28	7	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.6%	12.6%	2.7%	4.31	4.32	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	KC	27	0	28	118	27	14	3	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.4%	11.1%	2.6%	4.50	4.43	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	41	0	43	182	42	19	5	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.6%	12.3%	2.6%	4.37	4.30	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	49	0	51	215	50	23	6	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.5%	12.7%	2.6%	4.31	4.28	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	51	0	54	228	53	24	6	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.6%	12.6%	2.7%	4.31	4.32	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	175	739	170	79	19	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.7%	12.3%	2.6%	4.35	3.94	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	90	22	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.7%	12.3%	2.6%	4.35	3.94	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		88	0	122	547	99	84	18	0%	1.4	18.1%	15.3%	2.8%	3.2%	5.47	5.27	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	0	200	899	163	138	29	0%	1.4	18.1%	15.3%	2.8%	3.2%	5.47	5.27	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tommy Molsky (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	21.8%	12.7%	2.5%	—	4.34	22.9%	12.0%	191	-0.29	—	—	—
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	94
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	93
Todd Van Steensel R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.48	2.87	223	92
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	92
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	91
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	91
Aaron Kurcz R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	22.4%	13.6%	1.9%	.331	4.05	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.07	3.31	213	91
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	91
Abel De Los Santos R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	21.6%	12.1%	1.6%	.273	3.81	22.0%	13.3%	37	+0.14	3.67	152	91
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	90
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	90
Mason Vinyard R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.67	19.3%	5.9%	147	+0.94	3.60	207	90
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	89
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	89
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	89
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	89
Tyler Schoff R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	19.6%	10.8%	2.6%	.350	3.72	23.8%	15.7%	93	-0.53	3.69	190	88
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	88
Tyler Vogel R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	22	SU	4.93	23.4%	14.3%	3.6%	.305	4.48	19.1%	6.1%	135	-0.45	3.84	200	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	63	22.7%	11.2%	1.00	4.42
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58