Vance Honeycutt
OF Frederick Keys| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+/A2 orgs | 56 | .176/.250/.196 | 0 | 4 | -12 | — | .138/.196/.158 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+Aberdeen Iron… | 436 | .171/.283/.275 | 5 | 32 | 1 | — | .114/.194/.177 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 385 | .214/.332/.440 | 18 | 42 | 59 | — | .153/.225/.305 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBBAL | 1 | .156/.228/.273 | 0 | 0 | 38 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBBAL | 72 | .162/.235/.289 | 2 | 3 | 44 | -0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 26 | MLBBAL | 127 | .168/.241/.299 | 3 | 5 | 49 | -0.4 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 20 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 200 | 222 | 55 | 0 | 90 | -83 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 36 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 226 | 333 | 258 | 591 | 32 | 389 | 36 | 11 | 284 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 436 | 374 | 64 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 56 | 178 | 3 | 32 | 7 | 171 | 283 | 275 | 559 | 104 | 309 | 41 | 13 | 261 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 84 | 73 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 288 | 381 | 616 | 997 | 329 | 340 | 25 | 11 | 429 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 257 | 220 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 110 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 182 | 289 | 359 | 648 | 177 | 291 | 43 | 12 | 290 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 44 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 267 | 488 | 600 | 1.088 | 333 | 357 | 32 | 27 | 460 | 198 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 20 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 100 | 189 | 70 | 0 | 46 | -83 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 36 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 188 | 278 | 219 | 497 | 31 | 353 | 47 | 8 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 436 | 395 | 45 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 230 | 3 | 32 | 7 | 114 | 194 | 177 | 371 | 63 | 250 | 53 | 8 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 84 | 76 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 250 | 321 | 513 | 835 | 263 | 314 | 31 | 7 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 257 | 232 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 144 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 121 | 194 | 237 | 431 | 116 | 229 | 56 | 7 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 56 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 135 | 196 | 154 | 350 | 19 | 350 | 57 | 5 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 56 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 176 | 250 | 196 | 446 | 20 | 333 | 43 | 7 | 215 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 436 | 395 | 45 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 230 | 3 | 32 | 7 | 114 | 194 | 177 | 371 | 63 | 259 | 53 | 8 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 436 | 374 | 64 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 56 | 178 | 3 | 32 | 7 | 171 | 283 | 275 | 559 | 104 | 309 | 41 | 13 | 261 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 385 | 346 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 192 | 6 | 42 | 5 | 150 | 226 | 306 | 533 | 156 | 269 | 50 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 385 | 323 | 69 | 17 | 1 | 18 | 51 | 145 | 6 | 42 | 5 | 214 | 332 | 440 | 771 | 226 | 311 | 38 | 13 | 340 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 56 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 135 | 196 | 154 | 350 | 19 | 294 | 57 | 5 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 436 | 394 | 45 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 230 | 3 | 32 | 7 | 114 | 194 | 178 | 371 | 63 | 250 | 53 | 8 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 385 | 348 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 192 | 6 | 42 | 5 | 149 | 226 | 305 | 531 | 155 | 250 | 50 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 56 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 135 | 196 | 154 | 350 | 19 | 294 | 57 | 5 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 436 | 394 | 45 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 230 | 3 | 32 | 7 | 114 | 194 | 178 | 371 | 63 | 250 | 53 | 8 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 385 | 348 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 192 | 6 | 42 | 5 | 149 | 226 | 305 | 531 | 155 | 250 | 50 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | BAL | 0% | 380 | 345 | 53 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 175 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 153 | 226 | 266 | 491 | 113 | 272 | 46 | 8 | 225 | 38 | -28 | +2 | +3 | -2 | +8 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | BAL | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 228 | 273 | 501 | 117 | 277 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 38 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | BAL | 30% | 237 | 215 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 106 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 159 | 233 | 281 | 514 | 122 | 274 | 45 | 8 | 234 | 44 | -16 | +1 | +2 | -1 | +5 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 44% | 287 | 260 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 126 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 164 | 238 | 292 | 529 | 127 | 275 | 44 | 8 | 240 | 49 | -18 | +1 | +2 | -2 | +6 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | BAL | 30% | 72 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 162 | 235 | 289 | 524 | 126 | 279 | 44 | 8 | 238 | 44 | -5 | +1 | +1 | -0 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 44% | 127 | 115 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 56 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 168 | 241 | 299 | 540 | 132 | 280 | 44 | 8 | 244 | 49 | -8 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 199 | 180 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 88 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 161 | 237 | 289 | 526 | 128 | 273 | 44 | 8 | 242 | 30 | -13 | +1 | +2 | -1 | +4 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 588 | 95 | 20 | 3 | 16 | 52 | 287 | 7 | 26 | 3 | 162 | 238 | 287 | 525 | 126 | 274 | 44 | 8 | 242 | 30 | -41 | +4 | +5 | -4 | +14 | -2.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1607 | 1454 | 208 | 44 | 8 | 33 | 123 | 781 | 17 | 107 | 20 | 143 | 218 | 252 | 471 | 109 | 270 | 49 | 8 | 213 | 30 | -48 | +3 | +6 | -4 | +16 | -2.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 84 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 50 | 316 | 7 | 43 | 8 | 143 | 219 | 250 | 469 | 107 | 271 | 49 | 8 | 213 | 30 | -43 | +3 | +5 | -4 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Frederick Keys · 257 PAwOBA .286 → .192 (−94)K% 42.8% → 56.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 42.80% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 56.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 6.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.17% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 15.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 7.98% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .286 → .192; ISO .177 → .126; BABIP .291 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 84 PAwOBA .417 → .346 (−71)K% 25.0% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 7.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.38% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 2.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 15.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 11.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 1.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 7.70% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .417 → .346; ISO .329 → .266; BABIP .340 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 436 PAwOBA .255 → .170 (−85)K% 40.8% → 52.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.83% | ÷1.013 | ×1.310 | — | — | 52.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.84% | ÷0.944 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 8.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.92% | ÷0.990 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 17.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.010 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.06% | ÷1.091 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 2.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.55% | ÷1.229 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.85% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 118, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .255 → .170; ISO .104 → .066; BABIP .309 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 36 PAwOBA .278 → .208 (−70)K% 36.1% → 47.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.11% | ÷1.035 | ×1.360 | — | — | 47.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 31.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.216 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 3.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.943 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.952 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 143, 3B 89, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .278 → .208; ISO .032 → .019; BABIP .389 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 20 PAwOBA .088 → .046 (−42)K% 55.0% → 72.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 55.00% | ÷0.993 | ×1.310 | — | — | 72.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.048 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 18.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .088 → .046; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .222 → .189. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .