Vance Honeycutt — OGILVIE

Vance HoneycuttOF Frederick Keys

Age 23 R/R 6'3" / 205 lbs A+ HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION248 act + 165 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†8

AVG/OBP/SLG.127 / .207 / .208

PA165

HR2

SB11

K%53

BB%8

BABIP277

ISO80

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 34 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT34

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED65

scouting grade only

DEFENSE70

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	2 teams	—	56	52	6	0	0	0	3	32	1	4	2	115	179	115	294		300	57	5	146	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	2 teams	—	56	51	9	1	0	0	4	24	1	4	2	176	250	196	446	20	333	43	7	215	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	436	390	43	7	4	2	41	233	3	32	7	110	200	164	365	54	265	53	9	175	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	436	374	64	12	6	5	56	178	3	32	7	171	283	275	559	104	309	41	13	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A+	BAL	—	248	221	26	5	0	6	20	143	3	28	4	118	201	222	423	104	267	58	8	188	2	-27	+4	+0	-1	+7	-1.8
YTD	23	A+	BAL	—	248	211	38	8	0	9	30	107	3	28	4	180	291	346	637	166	296	43	12	287	78	-6	+4	+0	-1	+7	0.3
ROS	23	A+	BAL	0%	165	149	19	4	1	2	14	87	1	11	2	127	207	208	414	80	270	53	8	196	8	-17	+1	+1	-1	+5	-1.1
ROS	23	MLB	BAL	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						275	100	0	192	5	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	A+	BAL	—	249	222	26	5	0	6	20	144	3	28	4	117	200	221	421	104	267	58	8	188	2	-28	+4	+0	-1	+7	-1.8
TOT	23	A+	BAL	—	413	370	45	9	1	8	34	230	4	39	6	122	203	216	419	95	271	56	8	191	4	-45	+5	+1	-2	+12	-2.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	BAL	30%	443	398	56	10	2	8	38	218	4	20	3	141	223	236	459	95	274	49	9	216	23	-38	+3	+3	-3	+13	-2.3
2028	25	MLB	BAL	44%	473	425	65	12	2	11	41	223	4	19	3	153	234	268	502	115	277	47	9	229	34	-36	+3	+4	-3	+13	-1.9
2029	26	MLB	BAL	51%	491	441	70	13	2	12	43	225	4	17	3	159	240	279	519	120	279	46	9	237	40	-33	+2	+4	-3	+14	-1.7
2030	27	MLB	BAL	52%	497	446	71	13	2	12	44	226	4	16	3	159	241	278	519	119	279	45	9	239	41	-33	+2	+4	-3	+14	-1.6
2027	24	MLB	BAL	30%	134	120	18	3	1	3	12	66	1	6	1	150	233	267	500	117	279	49	9	213	21	-12	+1	+1	-1	+4	-0.7
2028	25	MLB	BAL	44%	209	187	29	5	1	5	18	99	2	8	1	155	237	273	509	118	282	47	9	226	31	-16	+1	+2	-1	+6	-0.9
2029	26	MLB	BAL	51%	249	223	36	7	1	6	22	114	2	9	2	161	243	283	525	121	283	46	9	234	38	-18	+1	+2	-1	+7	-0.9
2030	27	MLB	BAL	52%	261	234	38	7	1	7	23	118	2	9	2	162	243	291	534	128	283	45	9	237	39	-18	+1	+2	-2	+7	-0.9
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	854	765	121	22	4	21	75	398	7	32	6	158	240	280	519	122	286	47	9	230	34	-64	+4	+7	-5	+24	-3.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	92	17	3	16	57	303	5	24	5	158	239	280	519	122	286	47	9	230	34	-48	+3	+5	-4	+18	-2.7
Career	—			—	2561	2301	330	59	13	47	224	1244	21	119	23	143	226	242	467	98	278	49	9	217	24	-219	+15	+16	-15	+73	-13.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	84	15	3	12	57	316	5	30	6	144	226	241	467	98	279	49	9	217	24	-56	+4	+4	-4	+18	-3.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	20	20	2	0	0	0	0	11	0	0	0	100	100	100	200		222	55	0	90	-72	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	36	31	7	1	0	0	4	13	1	4	2	226	333	258	591	32	389	36	11	284	76	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2025	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	436	374	64	12	6	5	56	178	3	32	7	171	283	275	559	104	309	41	13	261	58	-21	+4	—	—	+12	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	15	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.3	10.9
	/162	664	12	3	194	253	300	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	855	20	32	155	235	270	-5	+16	-4.0	-2.0
	/162	664	15	25	155	235	270	-4.0	+12.4	-3.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Vance Honeycutt (OGILVIE)	23	34	50	65	58	122/203/216	95	271	8	39	56%	8%	4	-2.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jordy Barley 2023 · A	23	36→33	38→40	60	33	172/223/245	73	297	5	33	42%	6%	23	-3.6	185/242/271	86	335	8	32	44%	7%	38	-2.6	165/229/248	83	309	9	45	46%	7%	24	-1.1
✕Alfredo Reyes 2017 · A	23	36	36→30	57→55	35	178/218/236	57	272	4	20	35%	5%	17	-4.0	197/250/262	65	326	4	24	38%	6%	38	-2.6	193/254/252	59	326	4	28	39%	7%	34	-1.5
✕Taylor Lewis 2014 · A	24	37	39→45	61→55	35	181/228/275	94	281	5	18	36%	5%	32	-3.0	201/244/290	89	293	5	17	32%	5%	43	-2.2	208/231/276	68	278	4	26	26%	2%	29	-0.8
✕Champ Stuart 2016 · A	23	36→37	36→30	57→60	35	161/230/221	60	314	4	21	46%	8%	20	-3.8	176/239/252	76	320	6	29	43%	7%	32	-3.0	168/234/244	76	296	7	36	43%	7%	25	-2.0
✕Aaron Whitefield 2019 · A	22	39→47	39→40	54→60	38	192/245/272	80	286	7	24	34%	6%	39	-2.5	183/234/255	72	308	5	26	39%	6%	30	-3.1	209/268/310	101	317	9	38	35%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Leosdany Molina 2023 · A	23	40→34	38→40	53→50	37	193/242/267	74	280	6	17	32%	5%	37	-2.7	199/246/281	82	281	9	14	31%	5%	42	-2.3	184/229/246	61	251	10	18	30%	5%	24	-1.9
✕Willie Joe Garry Jr. 2022 · A	22	38	40→45	56→55	36	171/243/263	92	322	7	19	46%	8%	37	-2.7	178/247/283	105	321	7	22	43%	7%	43	-2.2	169/240/285	117	311	7	28	44%	8%	40	-1.0
✕Luis Aviles Jr. 2018 · A	23	38→40	38→50	53→55	31	187/221/261	74	292	6	20	37%	4%	25	-3.5	198/243/270	72	315	5	25	37%	5%	37	-2.7	196/238/335	139	267	15	22	32%	4%	50	-1.1
✕Malik Collymore 2018 · A	23	38	39→40	53→50	35	179/240/262	82	312	6	13	42%	6%	34	-2.8	205/258/310	105	343	9	15	40%	6%	55	-1.4	192/234/303	112	331	10	21	43%	4%	38	-0.8
✕Justin Lavey 2023 · A	25	38	39→40	58→55	33	178/229/264	86	313	7	18	43%	6%	30	-3.1	200/247/288	88	324	7	16	38%	6%	44	-2.1	196/224/261	65	303	6	20	37%	3%	22	-0.6
✕Jeren Kendall 2019 · A	23	32→23	41→50	53→60	34	164/219/261	97	284	9	23	44%	6%	25	-3.5	167/239/307	140	311	17	22	48%	8%	47	-1.9	132/218/273	141	245	18	30	51%	9%	28	-1.7
✕Oliver Marmol 2009 · A	23	37	36→40	55	38	180/236/245	66	252	3	19	29%	5%	29	-3.2	187/267/275	88	285	6	13	34%	6%	51	-1.7	159/261/249	90	258	5	10	36%	6%	42	-0.7
✕Trey Martin 2016 · A	23	39	37→40	52→55	33	191/224/257	67	292	4	19	35%	4%	25	-3.5	189/229/266	77	292	6	16	36%	4%	30	-3.1	179/222/259	80	279	8	16	37%	5%	25	-2.1
✕Jordyn Adams 2022 · A	22	38→40	40→45	52→60	35	183/238/269	86	312	8	16	42%	6%	36	-2.7	194/252/291	97	301	8	29	36%	6%	47	-1.9	186/248/297	110	286	13	26	38%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Aaron Knapp 2018 · A	23	40→37	37→30	52→55	41	188/256/253	65	298	5	19	36%	8%	39	-2.5	203/282/277	74	310	5	19	33%	10%	57	-1.2	200/289/268	68	300	5	21	32%	11%	55	-0.8
✕Justin Higley 2016 · A	23	35→39	41→45	53→55	36	171/231/266	95	289	9	15	42%	7%	32	-3.0	187/237/283	96	339	7	13	44%	6%	38	-2.6	175/220/271	96	331	5	13	46%	5%	26	-2.8
✕Brantley Bell 2018 · A	23	43→42	35→40	51→55	35	199/246/255	56	302	2	17	33%	4%	34	-2.8	205/256/286	81	269	7	15	25%	5%	47	-1.9	185/236/257	72	252	6	15	28%	5%	29	-1.4
✕Beau Philip 2022 · A	23	36→38	40	51→50	32	160/225/249	89	337	8	15	51%	7%	25	-3.5	187/261/291	104	328	12	10	43%	8%	52	-1.6	180/261/281	101	302	14	8	42%	9%	48	-1.1
✕Reggie Pruitt 2019 · A	22	37→44	36→30	56→60	36	175/239/241	66	293	4	26	39%	6%	30	-3.1	184/246/253	69	334	3	27	42%	7%	34	-2.8	166/231/226	60	317	2	32	45%	7%	19	-2.2
✕Tim Battle 2008 · A	22	38→41	40→45	52→55	33	187/231/280	93	299	8	17	39%	5%	34	-2.8	197/237/309	112	327	10	15	41%	4%	45	-2.1	187/220/318	131	318	13	18	44%	3%	36	-1.7