Nathan Church

LF St. Louis Cardinals

Age 27 L/L 5'10" / 180 lbs MLB HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.250 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

MLB40-MANFG #622Pre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	24	AASTL	541	.268/.335/.373	9	24	63	—	.233/.284/.308
2025	25	MLBSTL	65	.179/.258/.250	1	1	43	0.2
2026	26	MLBSTL	470	.247/.294/.364	10	10	85	-0.3
2027PROJ	27	MLBSTL	495	.241/.297/.369	12	20	88	0.3
2028PROJ82% MLB	28	MLBSTL	399	.239/.295/.364	9	14	86	0.0
2029PROJ82% MLB	29	MLBSTL	390	.236/.291/.358	9	12	84	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.250First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$0.2M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026

Whiff%90

Chase%90

Speed76

Bat Spd48

Barrel%25

xwOBA25

Form.249/.300/.368 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .241/.295/.374

CompsConner Capel (age 27) · Roger Bernadina (age 28) · Darrell Ceciliani (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .297 / .369

PA495

HR12

SB20

K%18

BB%6

BABIP272

ISO127

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 51 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT51

Whiff%

901.7%

xAVG

310.236

POWER40

Barrel%

254.9

Avg EV

1086.0

Bat Spd

4871.1

EYE50

Chase%

904.7%

SPEED58

Sprint

7628.5

DEFENSE54

scouting grade only

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%14%▲▲12% over 111 PA (60d) · proj 18%

BB%6%·5% over 111 PA (60d) · proj 6%

ISO.119▼.097 over 103 AB (60d) · proj .133

HR/BB2.4%▼1.1% over 91 BBE (60d) · proj 3.5%

BABIP.273·.300 over 90 BIP (60d) · proj .270

SLASH.249/.300/.368·proj .241/.295/.374

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.250 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$0.4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	111	95	18	1	1	0	9	14	5	3	1	189	294	221	515	32	220	13	8	246	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	518	455	127	24	2	3	46	60	15	21	12	279	364	360	725	81	316	12	9	332	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	541	482	129	22	1	9	43	60	6	24	4	268	335	373	708	106	286	11	8	316	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	58	55	20	1	1	0	3	5	0	3	2	364	397	418	815	55	400	9	5	367	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	65	56	10	1	0	1	3	18	3	1	0	179	258	250	508	71	237	28	5	229	43	-4	+0	+3	+2	+1	0.2
2025	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	242	215	72	11	4	7	24	25	0	9	4	335	400	521	921	186	353	10	10	401	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	129	119	40	7	1	6	8	10	1	6	0	336	383	563	946	227	327	8	6	410	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	470	434	107	17	2	10	25	81	4	10	5	247	294	364	658	118	278	17	5	291	85	-9	+0	+0	-5	+10	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	535	490	117	18	2	11	28	99	7	11	5	239	290	351	641	112	274	19	5	284	78	-14	+0	+3	-3	+12	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	111	98	16	1	1	0	6	20	5	3	1	163	248	194	442	31	194	18	5	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	518	473	111	20	2	2	28	79	15	21	12	235	298	298	597	63	273	15	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	541	497	116	20	1	5	29	78	6	24	4	233	284	308	592	74	257	14	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	65	56	10	1	0	1	3	18	3	1	0	179	258	250	508	71	237	28	5	232	43	-4	+0	+3	+2	+1	0.2
2025	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	242	222	73	10	5	6	18	31	0	9	4	329	379	500	879	171	351	13	7	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	129	121	35	6	1	4	6	12	1	6	0	289	328	455	783	165	295	9	5	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	470	434	107	16	2	11	25	81	4	10	5	247	294	369	662	122	278	17	5	293	85	-9	+0	+0	-5	+10	-0.3
2022	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	111	98	16	1	1	0	6	20	5	3	1	163	248	194	442	31	203	18	5	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	111	95	18	1	1	0	9	14	5	3	1	189	294	221	515	32	220	13	8	246	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	518	473	111	20	2	2	28	79	15	21	12	235	298	298	597	63	277	15	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	—	518	455	127	24	2	3	46	60	15	21	12	279	364	360	725	81	316	12	9	332	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	599	552	129	22	1	6	32	86	6	27	6	234	283	310	593	76	264	14	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	599	537	149	23	2	9	46	65	6	27	6	277	341	378	719	101	299	11	8	321	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	436	399	118	17	6	11	27	62	4	16	4	296	347	451	798	155	325	14	6	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	436	390	122	19	5	14	35	53	4	16	4	313	374	495	869	182	331	12	8	378	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	470	434	107	16	2	11	25	81	4	10	5	247	294	369	662	122	276	17	5	293	85	-9	+0	+0	-5	+10	-0.3
2026	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	470	434	107	17	2	10	25	81	4	10	5	247	294	364	658	118	278	17	5	291	85	-9	+0	+0	-5	+10	-0.3
2022	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	111	99	16	1	1	0	6	20	5	3	1	162	248	192	440	30	194	18	5	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	518	470	111	20	2	2	28	79	15	21	12	236	298	300	598	64	273	15	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	599	556	129	22	1	6	32	86	6	27	6	232	283	308	591	76	257	14	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	436	402	118	17	6	11	27	62	4	16	4	294	347	448	794	154	317	14	6	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	470	438	107	16	2	11	25	81	4	10	5	244	294	365	659	121	278	17	5	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	599	556	129	22	1	6	32	86	6	27	6	232	283	308	591	76	257	14	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	436	402	118	17	6	11	27	62	4	16	4	294	347	448	794	154	317	14	6	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	470	438	107	16	2	11	25	81	4	10	5	244	294	365	659	121	278	17	5	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	STL	100%	495	456	110	17	3	13	31	88	5	20	4	241	297	374	671	133	270	18	6	299	88	-7	+2	+1	-5	+11	0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	STL	100%	495	456	109	18	2	12	31	88	5	20	4	241	297	369	666	129	272	18	6	297	88	-7	+2	+1	-5	+11	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	82%	487	449	106	16	2	12	30	88	5	18	4	239	295	369	664	130	269	18	6	296	86	-8	+2	+1	-5	+11	0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	82%	475	437	104	16	2	12	30	87	5	15	3	236	292	362	654	126	267	18	6	292	84	-9	+2	+0	-5	+10	-0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	STL	82%	463	428	100	15	2	11	28	86	4	12	3	233	287	353	640	120	265	19	6	286	80	-11	+1	-1	-5	+10	-0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	82%	399	367	87	14	2	9	25	72	4	14	3	239	295	364	659	126	270	18	6	294	86	-6	+2	+1	-4	+9	0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	82%	390	359	85	13	2	9	24	71	4	12	3	236	291	358	649	122	269	18	6	290	84	-8	+1	+0	-4	+8	-0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	STL	82%	380	350	82	13	2	8	23	71	4	10	2	232	287	349	636	117	266	19	6	285	80	-9	+1	-1	-4	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1704	1566	371	58	8	37	100	313	19	47	13	237	291	355	646	118	272	18	6	288	81	-37	+4	+3	-16	+37	-0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	597	141	22	3	14	38	119	7	18	5	236	289	353	643	117	271	18	6	288	81	-14	+2	+1	-6	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4054	3726	901	140	21	78	237	677	53	142	42	242	297	353	650	112	275	17	6	288	81	-49	+8	+4	-24	+53	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	144	22	3	13	38	109	8	23	7	241	295	353	648	112	273	17	6	288	81	-13	+2	+1	-6	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Frank Isbell'01-'09 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,483 PA	6.8	4,483	13	250	248*	300*	403*	-42	+24	9.5	10.1
/162	664	2	37	-6.2	+3.6	1.4	pk7: 11
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Nate Schierholtzlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,275 PA	3.4	2,275	52	30	253	302	405	-24	-6	2.0	2.8
/162	664	15	9	-7.1	-1.8	0.6	pk7: 4
#5Jake Powell'30-'45 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,767 PA	4.2	2,767	22	65	248*	294*	373*	-14	-2	0.2	2.0
/162	664	5	16	-3.3	-0.5	0.0	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.3	2,198	53	67	238	289	362	-24	+9	-0.2	-0.1
/162	664	16	20	-7.1	+2.7	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Ray Coleman'47-'52 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,902 PA	2.9	1,902	20	19	249*	297*	399*	-12	-1	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	7	7	-4.4	-0.4	-0.0	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nathan Church (OGILVIE)	27	55→51	40	55→58	50	239/295/371	132	270	13	20	18%	6%	88	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Conner Capel 2024 · MLB	27	47→48	44→45	53→55	49	230/300/350	120	289	11	21	24%	9%	85	+0.2	209/275/330	121	261	13	19	24%	8%	71	-0.8	194/256/316	121	233	14	16	23%	7%	58	-1.1
✕Roger Bernadina 2012 · MLB	28	48→58	47→45	57→60	47	242/300/375	133	288	14	27	21%	7%	91	+0.6	230/300/350	120	292	12	22	24%	8%	85	+0.2	217/298/320	103	286	9	21	25%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Darrell Ceciliani 2017 · MLB	27	49→56	45	53→55	41	239/282/367	128	300	12	20	24%	5%	82	-0.0	219/268/329	110	295	10	13	28%	5%	68	-1.0	163/201/181	17	256	0	5	35%	3%	5	-0.9
✕Nick Buss 2014 · MLB	27	49→57	45→50	55	43	240/282/373	133	282	12	18	20%	5%	83	+0.1	239/288/336	97	292	7	14	20%	6%	76	-0.4	241/285/356	115	291	8	13	19%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Jake Alu 2024 · MLB	27	51→54	44→45	53→50	45	247/298/365	118	300	11	17	21%	6%	87	+0.4	227/282/328	101	273	9	16	19%	7%	73	-0.6	204/257/281	77	240	5	17	17%	7%	51	-0.9
✕Tyler Saladino 2016 · MLB	27	49→47	42→45	59→55	46	237/289/344	107	283	9	25	20%	6%	79	-0.2	234/289/341	107	291	10	19	22%	6%	78	-0.3	227/287/327	100	289	10	17	24%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Mitch Longo 2022 · AAA	27	46→44	47→45	59→50	41	232/281/369	137	296	14	22	26%	6%	82	+0.0	222/269/357	135	291	15	14	28%	5%	75	-0.5	181/219/302	120	230	16	3	29%	4%	40	-0.7
✕Kyle Isbel 2024 · MLB	27	47→52	47→50	52→55	45	234/289/376	142	285	13	16	22%	6%	87	+0.4	235/286/359	124	283	11	12	20%	6%	81	-0.1	233/283/344	112	281	10	11	20%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Óscar Mercado 2022 · MLB	27	44→54	47→50	55→60	49	220/288/362	142	254	14	20	20%	8%	84	+0.1	222/283/367	145	261	15	23	21%	7%	82	+0.0	214/273/362	148	250	16	28	21%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Jeff Salazar 2008 · MLB	27	48→51	45→50	54→55	52	234/304/366	132	277	10	16	19%	9%	90	+0.6	227/292/353	126	270	12	17	20%	8%	82	+0.0	212/273/324	112	251	13	21	21%	7%	67	-0.7
✕Matt Long 2014 · AAA	27	47→53	46→50	54→55	46	232/290/370	138	289	13	19	24%	7%	85	+0.2	206/261/313	107	275	9	17	27%	7%	61	-1.5	189/245/283	93	254	8	18	28%	7%	47	-2.0
✕Jimmy Herron 2024 · AAA	28	47→48	47→45	57→55	49	232/309/370	138	287	14	24	24%	9%	93	+0.8	222/285/331	109	273	11	23	22%	7%	75	-0.5	211/271/300	89	255	10	25	21%	6%	60	-0.9
✕Luis González 2023 · MLB	27	49→51	45	52→50	49	239/312/364	125	302	13	18	24%	9%	93	+0.8	237/309/353	116	311	10	17	25%	8%	89	+0.5	230/306/316	86	289	4	28	20%	8%	77	-0.1
✕Eric Patterson 2010 · MLB	27	51→55	45→50	62→60	47	250/306/382	131	307	11	32	22%	7%	94	+0.9	221/280/351	130	283	11	27	24%	7%	78	-0.3	198/263/317	119	258	9	26	26%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Willi Castro 2024 · MLB	27	50→54	47→50	59→55	44	245/308/386	140	304	13	28	23%	6%	96	+1.0	243/322/385	142	309	14	17	24%	8%	101	+1.4	239/321/378	139	307	14	13	25%	8%	101	+1.2
✕Josh Rojas 2021 · MLB	27	47→53	47→50	54→55	51	233/304/372	139	279	13	24	21%	9%	91	+0.7	248/321/373	125	312	12	17	23%	10%	98	+1.2	249/322/365	117	312	11	18	22%	10%	97	+0.9
✕Manuel Margot 2022 · MLB	27	50→55	46→50	51→60	51	249/308/378	129	281	13	21	17%	8%	94	+0.9	255/308/368	113	299	9	14	17%	7%	91	+0.7	255/306/357	102	300	7	12	17%	6%	89	+0.3
✕Clete Thomas 2011 · MLB	27	47→54	46→50	58→55	48	228/305/365	137	312	12	26	29%	9%	91	+0.6	211/264/346	135	302	15	19	33%	6%	70	-0.8	203/258/328	125	272	12	14	29%	7%	62	-0.9
✕Kevin Thompson 2007 · MLB	27	50→53	46→50	56→60	50	244/311/385	141	293	12	25	21%	8%	97	+1.1	234/298/354	120	289	10	29	21%	8%	84	+0.2	236/301/346	111	294	8	38	21%	8%	82	-0.0
✕Scott Cousins 2012 · MLB	27	47→51	46→50	53→55	43	234/282/372	138	293	13	15	25%	6%	83	+0.1	220/272/328	108	296	10	17	28%	6%	70	-0.9	213/264/309	96	289	8	20	28%	5%	60	-0.8

Nathan Church

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps