Ethan Flanagan
P
South Bend Cubs
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.5 · 2028
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.1%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.3%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2028
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 14 | 14 | 63 | 253 | 64 | 24 | 1 | 17.6% | 11.4% | 0.6% | 2.14 | 3.41 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 2 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 10 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.26 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CHC | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 52 | 23 | 6 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 62 | 263 | 62 | 25 | 8 | 23.6% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 3.91 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 54 | 22 | 7 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 55 | 22 | 7 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 54 | 22 | 7 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 56 | — | 56 | 234 | 53 | 22 | 7 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 50 | 21 | 7 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 48 | 21 | 6 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 43 | 20 | 6 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 21.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 37 | 18 | 6 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 20.5% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 14 | 69 | 280 | 55 | 31 | 4 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 1.3% | 2.34 | 3.56 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 40 | 200 | 808 | 159 | 89 | 12 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 1.3% | 2.34 | 3.56 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ethan Flanagan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 2.7% | — | 4.26 | 22.7% | 13.4% | 170 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 93 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 93 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 91 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 91 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 91 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 90 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 90 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.07 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .281 | 3.14 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 42 | -0.93 | 3.14 | 151 | 89 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 89 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.93 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.11 | 2.69 | 271 | 88 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.77 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .335 | 4.51 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 80 | +0.74 | 3.58 | 206 | 88 |
| Diego Barrera L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .310 | 3.67 | 18.5% | 9.7% | 44 | -0.05 | 3.67 | 111 | 88 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.60 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 201 | 87 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.57 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .275 | 4.89 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.32 | 3.57 | 146 | 87 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.38 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .261 | 5.05 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 51 | +0.67 | 4.31 | 201 | 87 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 87 |
| Billy Strode L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .306 | 2.85 | 16.0% | 7.3% | 47 | -0.83 | 2.51 | 155 | 86 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.98 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .291 | 4.09 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 49 | +0.11 | 3.98 | 104 | 86 |
| Cy Nielson L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.33 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 161 | 86 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.43 | 22.5% | 12.6% | 1.2% | .318 | 4.79 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 91 | +1.36 | 3.43 | 152 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.3 | $1M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.6M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.2 | $1M | -$6M |
| Totals | $11M | $9M | -$2M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.