Ethan Flanagan P South Bend Cubs
Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.6 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115124vR 133
ERA5.06
FIP5.06
K%17.3%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%5.2%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 113 IP
K: -0.8 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-1KBB: -1.1 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-1BBCONTACT: -4.9 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-5CONTACTSTAM: +15.3 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+15STAMTotal WAR: +0.90 (113 IP)+0.9WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.10.10.1+$2M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
STUF4040
CTRL4040
CMD4040
K†4045
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.3M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202523MIX2 levels14146325364241100%4.517.6%11.4%6.2%0.7%2.143.43—
202523MIX2 levels14146325364241100%4.525.3%9.5%15.8%0.4%2.142.42—
▸ 2026 Season
202624A+South Bend Cubs123461955411625%3.821.3%6.5%14.8%3.8%3.724.23+0.2
ROS24MLBCHC64067284493580%1.117.3%12.2%5.2%2.7%5.065.06-0.3
ROS24MLBCHC——0——————17.3%12.2%5.2%2.8%5.085.08—
2026 TOT24MLBCHC——1134791034614——21.6%9.5%12.0%2.9%4.514.72+0.9
2026 FULL24MLBCHC——01000——17.3%12.2%5.2%2.8%5.084.70-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202725MLBCHC10106828753338100%6.818.3%11.4%6.9%2.7%4.924.88-0.1
202826MLBCHC10106828754328100%6.818.9%11.2%7.7%2.8%4.844.82-0.1
202927MLBCHC10106728354328100%6.719.1%11.2%8.0%2.8%4.824.83-0.1
203028MLBCHC996527452318100%7.219.1%11.3%7.8%2.9%4.874.90-0.2
202725MLBCHC442912222143100%7.218.3%11.4%6.9%2.8%4.944.90-0.1
202826MLBCHC664519036215100%7.518.9%11.2%7.7%2.8%4.864.84-0.2
202927MLBCHC775222042256100%7.419.1%11.2%8.0%2.9%4.844.85-0.2
203028MLBCHC885523244267100%6.919.1%11.3%7.8%3.0%4.894.92-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—26261817651458622100%7.018.9%11.2%7.7%2.9%4.884.50+1.9
/ 200 IP—2928200844160952499%7.018.9%11.2%7.7%2.9%4.884.50+2.1
Career—26171094488642965%4.219.2%9.3%9.9%2.1%2.813.78+2.1
/ 200 IP—4831200822158761765%4.219.2%9.3%9.9%2.1%2.813.78+3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Ethan Flanagan (OGILVIE) —— 5.06 17.3%12.2%2.7%— 4.84 18.8%7.5%203 -0.22 ———
Cole Kirschsieper L 2024 · 5.23 FIP 22 SP- 5.23 15.2%12.0%3.5%.268 — ——— — 5.23 105 82
Dante Biasi L 2026 · 5.06 FIP 24 SP- 5.06 18.7%15.9%2.8%.288 7.16 20.1%1.7%69 +2.10 4.88 224 82
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2026 · 4.93 FIP 24 SP- 4.93 16.0%10.1%3.5%.289 — ——— — 4.93 116 81
Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.19 FIP 23 SP- 4.19 16.4%10.5%2.1%.280 — ——— — 4.19 106 80
Jack Snodgrass L 2029 · 4.77 FIP 27 SP- 4.77 12.6%10.7%2.5%.278 5.20 15.7%5.6%45 +0.43 4.77 118 80
Pat Peterson L 2024 · 4.36 FIP 22 SP- 4.36 13.5%10.6%1.9%.303 — ——— — 4.36 108 79
Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.84 FIP 24 SP- 4.84 20.5%10.5%3.9%.315 4.77 18.0%7.5%56 -0.07 4.77 154 79
Tim Berry L 2026 · 4.30 FIP 24 SP- 4.30 12.0%9.7%1.8%.346 5.11 14.7%-0.6%113 +0.81 4.04 196 79
Justin Marks L 2029 · 4.56 FIP 27 SP- 4.56 15.4%10.5%2.6%.323 3.78 19.0%9.1%216 -0.78 3.75 324 79
Nate Peterson L 2026 · 5.14 FIP 24 SP- 5.14 19.2%11.4%4.0%.296 3.95 15.5%4.2%121 -1.19 3.67 288 78
Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP 24 SP- 3.89 23.3%11.3%2.4%.286 4.89 18.1%2.5%99 +1.00 3.89 176 78
Scott DeCecco L 2026 · 4.58 FIP 24 SP- 4.58 14.5%11.5%2.3%.331 — ——— — 4.58 125 78
Liam Sullivan L 2026 · 5.49 FIP 24 SP- 5.49 20.1%15.8%3.8%.289 — ——— — 4.38 121 78
Rio Britton L 2025 · 4.77 FIP 23 SP- 4.77 22.0%15.8%2.8%.302 — ——— — 4.19 128 78
Ryan Ramsey L 2026 · 4.31 FIP 24 SP- 4.31 18.5%11.4%2.4%.326 5.09 17.5%5.5%76 +0.78 2.69 318 78
Cole Reynolds L 2026 · 5.26 FIP 24 SP- 5.26 17.3%16.9%2.7%.305 — ——— — 4.81 108 77
Seth Lonsway L 2026 · 5.11 FIP 24 SP- 5.11 13.8%15.3%2.2%.317 3.99 16.0%5.0%272 -1.12 3.33 457 77
Hayden Frank L 2025 · 5.29 FIP 23 SW 5.29 17.2%14.2%3.4%.290 — ——— — 5.29 109 77
Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP 24 SP- 4.25 21.0%9.9%3.0%.333 4.75 17.3%8.0%104 +0.50 3.42 205 76
Eric Wooten L 2027 · 4.16 FIP 25 SP- 4.16 14.6%7.5%2.5%.316 — ——— — 4.16 116 76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION56718.6%11.4%1.084.90
Jorge De La Rosa ('18)49819.5%10.3%1.224.52
Miguel Castro ('23)75920.8%12.0%1.043.99
Adam Conley ('19)58319.7%9.5%1.174.82
Travis Wood ('17)38520.8%9.8%1.344.72
José Ruiz ('24)55222.2%10.4%1.414.41
Drew VerHagen ('23)64319.7%9.4%1.404.82