Ethan Flanagan — OGILVIE

Ethan Flanagan P South Bend Cubs

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+ peak 0.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%17.3%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%4.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	63	253	64	24	1	100%	4.5	17.6%	11.4%	6.2%	0.6%	2.14	3.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	63	253	64	24	1	100%	4.5	17.6%	11.4%	6.2%	0.6%	2.14	3.40	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	63	253	64	24	1	100%	4.5	25.3%	9.5%	15.8%	0.4%	2.14	2.42	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	18	7	68	281	77	20	9	39%	3.8	20.7%	8.4%	12.4%	4.1%	3.46	4.66	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	18	7	68	281	77	20	9	39%	3.8	20.7%	8.4%	12.4%	4.1%	3.46	4.66	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	CHC	17	7	66	275	74	20	9	41%	3.9	26.9%	7.3%	19.6%	3.3%	3.56	3.55	—
2026	24	AA RAW	CHC	1	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	2.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CHC	5	0	6	24	4	3	1	0%	1.1	17.3%	12.5%	4.8%	2.7%	5.10	5.10	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	73	305	81	23	10	—	—	26.6%	7.5%	19.1%	3.2%	3.58	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	68	287	53	33	8	100%	6.8	18.3%	11.7%	6.7%	2.7%	4.96	4.91	-0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	68	287	54	33	8	100%	6.8	18.9%	11.4%	7.5%	2.8%	4.87	4.85	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	67	283	54	32	8	100%	6.7	19.1%	11.4%	7.7%	2.8%	4.85	4.86	+0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	65	274	52	32	8	100%	6.5	19.1%	11.5%	7.6%	2.9%	4.89	4.93	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	CHC	4	4	29	122	22	14	3	100%	7.2	18.3%	11.7%	6.7%	2.7%	4.96	4.91	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	45	190	36	22	5	100%	6.4	18.9%	11.4%	7.5%	2.8%	4.87	4.85	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	52	220	42	25	6	100%	6.5	19.1%	11.4%	7.7%	2.8%	4.85	4.86	+0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	55	232	44	27	7	100%	6.9	19.1%	11.5%	7.6%	2.9%	4.89	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		27	27	181	764	145	88	22	100%	6.7	18.9%	11.5%	7.5%	2.8%	4.88	4.51	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	160	97	24	100%	6.6	18.9%	11.5%	7.5%	2.8%	4.88	4.51	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		32	21	131	534	103	52	13	66%	4.1	19.2%	9.8%	9.4%	2.4%	2.82	4.06	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	32	200	817	157	80	20	66%	4.1	19.2%	9.8%	9.4%	2.4%	2.82	4.06	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Flanagan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	17.3%	12.5%	2.7%	—	4.87	18.8%	7.3%	203	-0.23	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	92
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	83
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	83
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	82
Tim Berry L 2015 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	12.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.346	5.03	14.7%	-0.6%	113	+0.57	4.04	196	80
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	80
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	80
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	79
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	79
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	79
Seth Lonsway L 2023 · 5.20 FIP	24	SP-	5.20	13.8%	15.3%	2.4%	.317	4.17	15.2%	4.4%	313	-1.03	3.35	498	79
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	79
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	79
Pat Peterson L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	13.5%	10.6%	1.6%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	108	78
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	78
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	77
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	75
Cody Reed L 2017 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	19.1%	14.3%	1.8%	.301	3.86	22.0%	13.8%	181	-0.44	2.90	572	75
Patrick Wicklander L 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP-	4.95	16.9%	8.8%	3.9%	.327	5.11	15.1%	0.1%	45	+0.16	4.88	254	75
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	18.6%	11.7%	1.08	4.93
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78