Jack Findlay

P Springfield Cardinals

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	33	61	4.90	3.25	24.5%	14.2%	—	K 17.3% · BB 17.8% · FIP 4.50
2026	23	MIX2 levels	44	52	4.47	3.44	27.0%	11.4%	—	K 21.5% · BB 13.3% · FIP 4.56
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	54	57	5.63	5.63	19.6%	17.6%	-0.7
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBSTL	24	25	5.40	5.32	20.4%	15.7%	-0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBSTL	37	39	5.27	5.23	20.8%	15.1%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control20Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsSeth Clark (age 24) · Dillon Larsen (age 24) · Fabian Williamson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124132vR 140

ERA5.63

FIP5.63

K%19.6%

BB%17.6%

K-BB%2.0%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	61	274	67	39	2	0%	1.8	17.3%	17.8%	-0.4%	1.1%	4.90	4.50	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	61	274	67	39	2	0%	1.8	17.3%	17.8%	-0.4%	1.1%	4.90	4.50	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	61	274	67	39	2	0%	1.8	24.5%	14.2%	10.2%	0.7%	4.90	3.25	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	52	237	64	27	5	0%	1.2	21.5%	13.3%	8.2%	2.9%	4.47	4.56	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	52	237	64	27	5	0%	1.2	21.5%	13.3%	8.2%	2.9%	4.47	4.56	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	52	237	64	27	5	0%	1.2	27.0%	11.4%	15.6%	2.1%	4.47	3.44	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	54	0	57	241	47	42	7	0%	1.1	19.6%	17.6%	2.0%	2.9%	5.63	5.63	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	55	0	58	244	50	38	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	15.7%	4.7%	2.9%	5.40	5.32	-0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	55	0	58	244	51	37	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	15.1%	5.6%	2.9%	5.27	5.23	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	24	0	25	106	21	17	3	0%	1.0	20.4%	15.7%	4.7%	2.9%	5.40	5.32	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	37	0	39	165	34	25	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	15.1%	5.6%	2.9%	5.27	5.23	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	0	64	270	56	41	8	0%	1.0	20.6%	15.3%	5.3%	2.9%	5.32	4.89	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	128	25	0%	1.1	20.6%	15.3%	5.3%	2.9%	5.32	4.89	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		77	0	113	511	99	80	10	0%	1.5	19.3%	15.7%	3.6%	1.9%	4.70	4.53	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	0	200	904	174	142	18	0%	1.5	19.3%	15.7%	3.6%	1.9%	4.70	4.53	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Findlay (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.63	19.6%	17.6%	2.9%	—	5.28	20.6%	5.2%	116	-0.35	—	—	—
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	89
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	89
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	88
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	88
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	87
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	86
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	85
Caleb Frare L 2017 · 5.45 FIP	24	SU	5.45	22.6%	21.3%	2.9%	.307	3.14	28.0%	15.6%	80	-2.31	2.27	237	85
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	84
Ben Harris L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	23.8%	19.6%	3.8%	.291	4.74	21.1%	0.9%	30	-0.92	3.06	183	84
Estevan Gonzalez L 2016 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	16.9%	15.7%	1.7%	.240	5.21	12.1%	-1.2%	58	+0.63	4.58	195	83
Gabriel Sequeira L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	19.3%	13.1%	2.7%	.294	3.57	21.4%	10.0%	63	-1.03	2.62	160	82
Kumar Nambiar L 2022 · 4.75 FIP	24	SU	4.75	18.5%	14.3%	2.6%	.277	4.94	14.0%	1.0%	60	+0.19	3.10	221	82
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	82
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	82
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	81
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	81
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	81
Juan Pichardo L 2021 · 4.83 FIP	23	SU	4.83	17.7%	17.1%	1.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	103	81
Yoan Aybar L 2021 · 5.91 FIP	24	SU	5.91	19.2%	16.2%	4.3%	.323	6.04	20.9%	1.2%	41	+0.13	3.41	166	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	20.3%	16.1%	1.12	5.43
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*